INDIANS WORRIED ABOUT NEW TERROR BLASTS AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 008715

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR S/CT, DS, SA, P, C, S/P, R, AND PA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2015
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV KISL PBTS KCRM ASEC IN
SUBJECT: INDIANS WORRIED ABOUT NEW TERROR BLASTS AND
LASHKAR INSIGHTS

REF: NEW DELHI 8680

Classified By: A/Political Minister Counselor Atul Keshap for Reasons 1
.4 (B, D)


1. (S) SUMMARY. In a disturbing up-tick in the level of
terrorist violence in India, a car bomb blast in Srinagar on
November 16 killed four and injured 56, including a former
insurgent who changed sides and served for a period as a
Kashmiri state minister. This was the third such deadly
terrorist incident in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in forty-eight
hours; in two other incidents, a former Kashmiri tourism
minister almost lost his life in a grenade attack that killed
six and wounded 58, while terrorists' gunfire in Lal Chowk
market in Srinagar killed two police and two civilians and
injured 60 others, including a Japanese freelance cameraman.
Heightening Indians' intense anxiety after the October 29
Diwali attacks in Delhi, J&K police for the first time
arrested alive a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) suicide squad member
whom they claim infiltrated from Pakistan 21 days ago and
took part in the Lal Chowk shootout. Meanwhile, the Embassy
has received sensitive new revelations from Indian sources
indicating the LeT's Diwali bombers received money from the
UAE and Saudi Arabia, accentuating the group's evolving
trans-national characteristics. In addition, J&K police
sources tell us the LeT is working to establish terror cells
in Chandigarh, Agra, Maharashtra, and Delhi in part because
the world press is inured to attacks in Kashmir. One
Kashmiri politician speculated terrorists seek to polarize
India's Muslims and Hindus by expanding their operations
outside Kashmir. Indians are increasingly nervous about the
rising tide of terror and its impact on India's sense of
security. ACTION REQUEST: A strong USG message of solidarity
emanating from Washington would be a welcome morale-booster
that could keep Indian policies we wish to sustain moving in
the right direction; please see a suggested draft below in
paragraph ten. END SUMMARY.

A DAILY DIET OF DEATH TURNS KASHMIRIS AGAINST TERROR
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2. (C) Even for a country regularly afflicted by terror for
the past fifteen years, the last few days have been unusually
eventful. Coming on the heels of the Diwali/Eid massacre on
October 29, three attacks in the Kashmir valley in just 48
hours have killed 14 and injured almost 200. Even for
Kashmiris, it was a bit too much. Reporters we spoke to in
Srinagar said women beat their breasts, tugged their hair,
and ululated in traditional signs of mourning as they saw the
bodies being removed from the car bomb site outside the front
gates of the J&K Bank on November 16. The shootout November
14/15 in Lal Chowk meant that the entire commercial heart of
what is nowadays a crowded and prosperous city was under
siege for 24 hours as police flushed out terrorists, killing
one and capturing one alive for the first time. The grenade
attack in Tangmarg decimated a small village community. Two
former ministers almost lost their lives on two consecutive
days. This followed terrorists' successful assassination of
a sitting J&K minister on October 18.


3. (C) When news of the latest bombing reached a November 16
conference we attended in Delhi, separatist Hurriyat leader
Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, National Conference leader and MP Omar
Abdullah, and PDP leader and MP Mehbooba Mufti unanimously
condemned the atrocity, explaining that Kashmiris are
dedicated to a peaceful settlement to their problems. The
Mirwaiz, whose own uncle was killed by terrorists, commented
it was harder and far more dangerous to be a moderate in
favor of constructive dialogue than an extremist. Omar
Abdullah observed that Kashmiris' mood had changed; he cited
as proof the recent fizzled anniversary of the day Indian
troops entered J&K for the first time in 1947; past years'
observances had been well-attended and feisty. All agreed
that terrorism was not the answer, and that peaceful dialogue
was the surest path to a just and lasting political
settlement.

BUT TERROR INCREASINGLY FOCUSES ON INDIA
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4. (C) Compounding Indians' concerns about the steady
drip-drip of terrorism, newspaper revelations about Kashmiri
businessman and LeT member Tariq Dar, whom police allege
helped organize the Diwali blasts (reftel) and additional
police claims that they had captured alive -- for the first
time in J&K -- a man whom they claim was a suicide-bent
terrorist involved in the Lal Chowk shootout led Indians to
confront the "face" of murder and terror. The businessman
was a salesman for a multi-national corporation; pictures
showed him receiving awards for meeting sales goals. He
looked like a normal fellow, yet, if police claims hold true
in court, he worked to kill 71 people. Lal Chowk detainee
Ajaz Ahmad Bhat (aka Abu Sunania) is only 20; he looks like
somebody's clean-cut son. Police allege he is from Mansooria
(Faisalabad district) in Pakistan, that the LeT infiltrated
him 21 days ago, and that he told them calmly he was ready to
die for the cause. Police hope he will give them insight
into LeT tactics and training for suicide operatives.


5. (S) Senior Kashmiri police officer Javed Makdoumi told us
November 7 that humint and sigint received by his office
indicated that the LeT is actively recruiting members who
look and speak like north Indians. His staff had arrested a
Kashmiri man involved in the killing of an Indian railway
engineer in 2004 whom Makdoumi felt could easily have passed
for a Punjabi. The man told them LeT had sent him to
Chandigarh to establish a terror cell at a university.
Makdoumi also claimed the man said LeT had established itself
in Delhi, Agra, and Maharashtra in addition to Chandigarh.
Makdoumi said police worry that Indian cities outside of
Kashmir will face a wave of terror along the lines of the
Diwali bombings.

TERRORISTS SEEKING ATTENTION, RELIGIOUS POLARIZATION
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6. (S) Makdoumi also commented that the LeT had become more
media savvy. In the past, their attacks had been throughout
the valley of Kashmir. They realized that their media
coverage was better when attacks occurred near the major
media outlets, all of whom are clustered in a compound in
downtown Srinagar. Thereafter, "90 percent" of attacks
occurred within four kilometers of the media compound,
resulting in almost immediate televised coverage throughout
India. Makdoumi claimed the LeT was shifting into the rest
of India because Srinagar attacks rarely made much news
outside India anymore, whereas blasts in Delhi successfully
grabbed the whole world's attention. Omar Abdullah, speaking
at a conference on November 16, posited the LeT seeks to
spread its operations throughout India in an effort to
polarize Hindus and Muslims in the rest of India, even
though, he claimed, not one non-Kashmiri Muslim Indian had
ever been arrested for joining the jehadis' efforts in
Kashmir.

WHILE LeT'S TRANSNATIONAL TIES STRETCH FURTHER AFIELD
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7. (S) We followed up on media reports (reftel) that the
Diwali bomber Tariq Dar received money from an unnamed
Arabian Peninsula country. Noted terrorism expert Ajai Sahni
(STRICTLY PROTECT) told us November 16 that five separate
wire transfers are on record, all from the UAE. The largest
of these was over 1.4 million rupees, while the remaining
four totaled 800,000 Rupees, for a total value of approx. USD
49,000. Sahni said police are checking on the source
accounts. Even more interestingly, Sahni reported that Dar
had been arrested in April 2005 when he returned from the Haj
carrying 860,000 Rupees in Saudi Riyals (approx. USD 19,000).
Dar told the court then that business associates had given
him the money to "invest in India," and was let go, although
surveilled for a while at a low priority level, then
neglected. Sahni commented that unless strong linkages to
specific expenditure in a terrorist operation, or
corroborated flows to identified terrorists are identified,
money smugglers usually get away on such charges with a
financial penalty and no jail time. Sahni lamented that
establishing "terror finance" is extremely cumbersome and
difficult under current Indian law. NOTE: The UAE connection
is being kept very, very quiet by the police and media here,
likely to avoid embarrassing the UAEG and to elicit its help.
END NOTE.

AND CAPABILITIES STRENGTHEN?
--------------


8. (S) Indians are also increasingly worried about
widely-read (and widely-believed) news reports here that
allege the LeT has assumed a prominent role in earthquake
relief in Pakistan. Prominent Kashmiri separatist Yasin
Malik told us he had personally seen USG relief supplies
being distributed by jehadis. Malik said the LeT had taken
on a vigorous new role in providing people in the
quake-affected region necessary supplies. MPs Anand Sharma
(Congress party spokesman) and AR Shaheen (J&K) told us
November 16 that they were quite worried about the dilution
of the Pakistani army's role in earthquake relief. Terrorism
and security analysts at www.satp.org also issued an analysis
called, "The State fails, the Jehadis Prevail" which has been
amplified in various strategic circles here.

AMERICA CAN REASSURE A WORRIED GOVERNMENT AND PEOPLE
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9. (C) COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST: The net effect of the
daily news of fresh terrorist attacks combined with
revelations of the intricacy and success of terrorist groups
has made people here nervous. Following the PM's warnings at
SAARC in Dhaka to Pakistan and Bangladesh (reftel),some in
the media said the Indo-Pak peace process might have started
to cool. For now, the GOI seems set to continue on a steady
course of engagement with Pakistan; relief diplomacy at the
five new LoC openings and the PM's trade proposals in Dhaka
serve as examples of that steadiness. Indians are trying
hard not to let the growing death toll from terrorism
distract them. Many Indians do not want to play into
terrorists hands by disrupting hard-won progress. Given the
disturbing increase in the daily level of violence, the USG
can play a helpful role in ensuring India keeps moving in the
right direction. A clear and unambiguous USG message would
be a useful morale-booster that could reassure Indians that
their current support for rapprochement with Pakistan and
dialogue with Kashmiris, as well as rejection of terrorists'
crude attempts to polarize the nation on religious grounds,
are the right way to go. Following the car bombing in
Srinagar, Washington may wish to consider issuance of a clear
statement along the lines of the draft in paragraph ten
below. END COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST.

SUGGESTED USG STATEMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) The United States condemns in the strongest
possible manner the brutal, cruel, and senseless terrorist
attack that occurred today in downtown Srinagar near the
corporate headquarters of the Jammu and Kashmir Bank.

As we have said repeatedly, there can be no justification for
such acts of violence, which have inflicted such harm on the
people of Jammu and Kashmir and many other parts of India.
The people of Jammu and Kashmir have manifested their wish --
through meaningful participation in elections and on-going
dialogue by all segments of government and society -- for a
peaceful outcome of their difficulties that establishes a
lasting peace and prosperity. In doing so, they have defied
the wishes of a tiny minority that continues to wage a bloody
and increasingly meaningless campaign to sow discord and
intolerance.

The United States adds its voice to that of the vast majority
of moderate and peace-loving Kashmiris who have condemned
violence, and expresses its dismay at the cruelty of
terrorists who attack the Kashmiri people on an almost-daily
basis.

We offer our sympathy to the victims of this and other
terrorist attacks that have occurred in India, and will
endeavor to work with the government of India to help ensure
that the terrorists are brought to justice.

The United States remains committed to the permanent end of
terrorism against India, which has resulted in so much
needless and unjustifiable loss of innocent life.

END TEXT OF SUGGESTED USG STATEMENT.
BLAKE