Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI8510
2005-11-04 09:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

DESPITE TERROR BLAST, NEW KASHMIR CHIEF MINISTER

Tags:  PGOV KISL KDEM PHUM PBTS PTER ASEC PK IN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008510 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015
TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM PHUM PBTS PTER ASEC PK IN
SUBJECT: DESPITE TERROR BLAST, NEW KASHMIR CHIEF MINISTER
ASSUMES DUTIES

REF: A. NEW DELHI 8120

B. NEW DELHI 8508

C. NEW DELHI 8607

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008510

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2015
TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM PHUM PBTS PTER ASEC PK IN
SUBJECT: DESPITE TERROR BLAST, NEW KASHMIR CHIEF MINISTER
ASSUMES DUTIES

REF: A. NEW DELHI 8120

B. NEW DELHI 8508

C. NEW DELHI 8607

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite a suicide car bombing that killed
five, Cabinet Affairs Minister and Sonia Gandhi close aide
Ghulam Nabi Azad became Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir
November 2, as per a 2003 power-sharing agreement between
Congress and former Chief Minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's
PDP party. Azad has a tough job ahead of him, including
quashing terror, managing popular expectations in J&K,
sustaining Kashmir's march toward normalcy, and avoiding the
impression that he is Sonia Gandhi and the Delhi government's
errand boy. Azad's tenure will witness furious jockeying
among Kashmiri political parties to position themselves for
2008 elections, proving India's policy that genuine democracy
entrusted to Kashmiris will be the key to ending a fifteen
year insurgency that no longer garners popular support. END
SUMMARY.

SONIA FINALLY DECIDES TO CAN MUFTI
--------------


2. (C) After weeks of speculation, and as we foreshadowed in
Ref A, UPA Supremo Sonia Gandhi decided late October 27 to
oust Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Chief Minister (CM) Mufti
Mohammed Sayeed per their 2003 power-sharing agreement to
switch from his PDP party to Congress rule by the end of
October 2005. Her decision, after much public hemming and
hawing, means Cabinet Affairs Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad of
Jammu has become the first CM of J&K not from the Valley, and
the first Congress CM in three decades. Our contacts,
including a Communist MLA and a PDP functionary characterize
him as a man who will place a firm hand on the tiller of
government. We assess that Sonia knuckled under to intense
pressure from power-hungry Congress MLAs who were outraged at
the possibility that, for reasons of national interest and
due to the earthquake, Sonia might allow Mufti to continue in
power. Those MLAs, the papers reported, even threatened to

defect to the PDP if power did not come to them. Sonia's
decision flew in the face of editorials by the Hindustan
Times, Indian Express, and Times of India that urged that
Mufti remain in the job to ensure proper earthquake relief,
continue his work improving the human rights situation in the
Valley, and facilitate Delhi-Srinagar dialogue. The way in
which Sonia made the decision also particularly infuriated
Mufti's daughter, Mehbooba, who, while publicly gracious, was
privately upset that her father had been jerked around for
weeks before Sonia finally administered the coup de grace
that they had known all along was coming but had been led to
believe might be delayed.

TERRORISTS CRASH THE PARTY
--------------


3. (C) On the day of Azad's inauguration in Srinagar November
2, terrorists sent him an unwelcome welcome present by
killing four in a suicide bombing just a few hundred yards
from Mufti's private residence, but 15 kms from the
inauguration site. The press reported that a Jaish-e-Muhamed
(JeM) suicide bomber detonated a bomb after rushing through a
police roadblock in a Maruti car. Indian government sources
speculate the bomber sought to test defenses around Mufti's
new home, send Azad a signal that the earthquake had not
wiped them out, and also signal to Sonia their displeasure
that separatist-friendly PDP was out of power (Ref B).

SEPARATISTS YAWN
--------------

4. (C) The separatists viewed the democratic transfer of
power as a bit of a snooze. Mirwaiz Omar Farooq of the
moderate Hurriyat characterized it as an "internal" matter
that would not lead to any final settlement of Kashmir's
status. Hardline Hurriyat leader SAS Geelani said the
transfer would make no difference to Kashmiris. Shabir Shah
said the transfer did not affect him since he really only
wants freedom (azadi) not Azad. Shah added that the transfer
continued Delhi's long tradition of unfulfilled promises,
noting that Delhi's high-handedness continued even in the
shabby way in which Mufti learned of his ouster by watching
TV news. Bilal Lone told us Mufti was not a sacred cow for
the separatists, so they are not perturbed at his departure.
What they left unsaid is that they are not outraged, as some
in the commentariat had expected, that a Congress-wallah from
Jammu is taking over in their precious Srinagar. Professor
Anand Sahay, writing on www.rediff.com speculated that the
reason people in the Valley are giving Azad a chance is
because conditions there are as normal as they have been in
15 years, resentment against Delhi has given way to
resentment against the terrorists (who cannot be held
accountable in court for their horrific excesses) for causing
the bulk of deaths during the insurgency, and Kashmiris feel
they were "had" by Jehadis who promised them freedom but
brutalized them for not being sufficiently fundamentalist in
their faith. As a result, Sahay argues, J&K is becoming a
normal state for the first time, and the old unwritten rules
about imposing puppet regional parties no longer apply, hence
the popular acceptance of Azad's accession.

WHO'S WHO IN AZAD'S KASHMIR
--------------


5. (C) Continuing with the power-sharing formula that emerged
from the 2002 elections, the PDP's Muzaffar Hussain Beigh
will serve as Deputy Chief Minister, while the former Deputy
in Mufti's government, Congress minister Mangat Ram Sharma,
was retained as a Cabinet minister without portfolio. Six
Congress and five PDP ministers also took the oath of office,
none of whom are women. Kashmiris (from the Valley)
continue to dominate, with seven, while Jammu received four
ministers, and Ladakh two; as usual, Sikhs and Hindu Pandits
got frozen out. The J&K government will shift to Jammu
November 7 to avoid the Valley winter, re-starting work after
the Eid holiday. Azad will first focus rounding out his
cabinet. The new government should be in place by late
November, after which Azad will focus on shifting people
around in the bureaucracy. Already, the media are reporting
terror in the bureaucracy at Azad's threats to clean up the
notorious corruption in the J&K administration, although
Tahir Mohi-ud-din, an editor at a Kashmiri news magazine told
us the ministers in Azad's government are also corrupt. A
prominent Kashmiri businessman, Altaf Bukhari, agreed that
all the Congress members of the government are known for
their corruption. Azad's resignation as Parliamentary
Affairs minister in the central cabinet will also likely
accelerate the long rumored Cabinet reshuffle in Delhi (Ref
C).

THE TO-DO LIST
--------------


6. (C) Azad has taken the reins of power in the aftermath of
the worst natural disaster in J&K's modern history. He has
to demonstrate to Kashmiris that his government can deliver
relief supplies efficiently despite the transfer. He also
has a continuing insurgency and consequent terrorism to deal
with. He must manage relations with splintered and fractious
separatists even as they, in turn, talk to Delhi and
Islamabad. He will have to shed his reputation as Sonia's
long-time "chamcha" (suck-up/errand boy) by appearing to
stand up to Delhi from time to time. In his inaugural
address, Azad said custodial killings by security forces and
terrorism by insurgents would not be tolerated. In a
rhetorical show of strength and moral clarity, he called the
insurgents terrorists, not using the namby-pamby "militant"
formulation preferred by a terrified news media. He also
promised to continue Mufti's "Healing Touch" human rights
policies. Azad will have to manage resentment of Kashmir
from Jammu and Ladakh, which perpetually feel slighted by
Delhi's obsession with the Valley. The valley's unemployment
remains a headache.

COMMENT: NO HONEYMOONS IN KASHMIRI POLITICS
--------------

7. (C) Sonia's decision in one sense put Congress' narrow
interests ahead of those of the people of the Valley or even
national interests. Many think tank types in Delhi had urged
Mufti's retention because he had done so much to calm the
Valley. Moreover, Mufti had acted as a circuit breaker of
sorts, protecting the Center from Kashmiris' ire at the
government. Azad, as "Delhi's man" will be hampered in
trying to play that role. Sonia's decision also suggested
that the UPA really is feeling vulnerable in managing its
coalition and could not afford the additional dissent that a
decision not to pursue the Chief Ministership likely would
have provoked among the Congress rank and file. While the
Hurriyat have carefully remained out of this PDP-Congress
power drama, the National Conference of Farooq and Omar
Abdullah are delighted that their PDP nemeses are out of
power. Sonia may still compensate Mufti with some senior
portfolio in Delhi, while Mehbooba works to weaken the
National Conference and survive Congress' predations on her
flock in the Valley prior to 2008 elections. Meanwhile,
Azad, sniffing, perhaps, National Conference and PDP
weakness, will work to position Congress to make big gains
before the 2008 poll. We doubt the PDP-Congress coalition
will survive the next election as a result. What is sure is
that there will be furious jockeying from now until 2008
between the major parties.

COMMENT CONTINUED: BECOMING A NORMAL STATE AFTER 60 YEARS
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Meanwhile, all eyes are on the currently-on-hold
Delhi-Srinagar dialogue to see if the Hurriyat can be
inveigled to contest elections in 2008. If they do, the
treacherous party politics of Kashmir will get even more
dangerous, but party machinations and regular elections will
have won the day, with ballots beating bullets after 15 years
of seething insurgency. Azad and Sonia and Manmohan Singh
must continue the trend the BJP started of devolving real
democracy to Kashmiris, and treating J&K like an ordinary
state and not as a mistrusted ward of Delhi that must be kept
on a short leash. The insurgency found its birth in Delhi's
arrogance, yet its death draws nearer as Delhi curbs its
tendencies toward meddling. In this regard, Azad and the
Congress party face the challenge of building on the BJP's
and Mufti's achievements in making J&K look more and more
like a normal state in India's democracy.
MULFORD