Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI8120
2005-10-19 11:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

INDO-PAK "DISASTER DIPLOMACY" SOFTENING BORDERS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR EAID ECPS PBTS IN PK INDO PAK 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008120 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ECPS PBTS IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK "DISASTER DIPLOMACY" SOFTENING BORDERS
(BUT NOT POLITICS)

REF: A. NEW DELHI 8073


B. NEW DELHI 7990

Classified By: Charge Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008120

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID ECPS PBTS IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK "DISASTER DIPLOMACY" SOFTENING BORDERS
(BUT NOT POLITICS)

REF: A. NEW DELHI 8073


B. NEW DELHI 7990

Classified By: Charge Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Terrorism aside (Ref A),the diplomatic
vibes of disaster diplomacy are resonating well in India.
The GOI warmly welcomed Musharraf's October 18 decision to
permit "any amount" of Kashmiris from J&K to cross the LoC
into Pakistani Kashmir to assist with earthquake
reconstruction and meet their relatives. Some Indian
Kashmiris are now preparing to cross over to join relief
workers, while others have already begun crossing the Neelam
River on quake-created bridges. New phone services linking
Kashmiris are also widely hailed for further expanding
people-to-people interaction. As much as diplomacy is
boosted, however, the GOI continues to investigate the
October 18 terrorist attack on a secure VIP residential
enclosure, and domestic partisan maneuvering continues
unabated -- although Kashmiris insist that relief should come
first, and political jockeying should wait. Amid the
destruction, the PM is using the quake to advance his vision
of a "soft" LoC, which Kashmiris are also embracing, and
which promises a chance for more normalized relations down
the road. End Summary.

Freer Movement Across the LoC
--------------


2. (C) The GOI was upbeat over Musharraf's announcement of
softening the LoC to allow freer travel by Indian Kashmiris
into Pakistani Kashmir, including opening more cross-LoC
transportation routes. MEA Spokesman Navtej Sarna, in the
GOI's quick and positive reply to the initial news of the
announcement, noted that the move built upon PM Singh's
"advocacy of greater movement across the LoC," although he
admitted that "practical details" remain to be solved. He
also reminded journalists of the GOI's offer earlier this
year to create with the GOP special zones along the LoC for
divided families to meet. PDP President Mehbooba Mufti said

separately that her party is "ready to move fast on
cross-border assistance" and Editor of the Urdu-language
weekly "Chattan" Tahir Mohiuddin told us that Musharraf's
declaration was "welcomed by all."

Creative Kashmiris Already Voting with Their Feet
-------------- --------------


3. (C) According to Mehbooba, damage along the Neelam River
is facilitating cross-LoC travel. The earthquake dislodged
boulders that fell into the river, and are now being used by
villagers -- apparently unopposed by security forces on
either side -- as a literal bridge across the LoC.

Can You Hear Me Now?
--------------


4. (C) In response to moderate separatist leader Mirwaiz
Umar Farooq's call for telephone connectivity across the LoC
(which had been "switched off" since 1991),PM Singh on
October 18 directed the Department of Telecommunications to
set up four Telecom Facilitation Centers in Srinagar, Jammu,
Uri, and Tangdhar, to allow Indian Kashmiris to contact their
relatives in Pakistani Kashmir starting from October 19. For
the first two weeks, the phone calls will be free of charge.
All four centers are located in or near police facilities,
apparently to better protect them against possible terrorist
attacks. A top GOI contact told us this was a personal
decision of the PM. The several Hurriyat members who talked
to us after these centers became operational hailed them.
Our contacts in Srinagar report that, for now, the centers
only offer trunk calls that need to be booked in advance.


5. (C) Musharraf's statement that mobile phone service will
be allowed in and out of Pakistani Kashmir will also improve
the diplomatic vibes. Many Indians already rely on mobile
phones, and the damage to telephone cables in Kashmir will
make mobile phone service a more immediate link than awaiting
restoration of landline service.

Home Secretary Reviewing Security
--------------


6. (U) Home Secretary VK Duggal is in J&K October 19,
reviewing security in the wake of the October 18 terrorist
attack on a secure VIP residential compound. Before his
departure, Duggal told reporters that J&K police and Indian
intelligence services continue their investigations and would
examine al-Mansoorian's claim of responsibility.

Domestic Politics Remains Virtually Unchanged
--------------


7. (C) Press speculation continues unabated on whether the
earthquake and its aftermath would allow PDP Chief Minister
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed to stay in place, or if he will vacate
his position in November as planned under the PDP-Congress
election pact. However, Gandhi family confidante Wajahat
Habibullah (strictly protect) on October 19 told us that
Congress leader Sonia Gandhi responded curtly when he briefed
her on J&K Finance Minister Muzzafar Beg's lobbying on
Mufti's behalf: "What has Mufti done for the nation, or the
Congress Party" was her response. Habibullah explained that
Mrs. Gandhi continued to hold a grudge against Mufti for his
decision to abandon Rajiv Gandhi in 1989 and support the VP
Singh government (1989-1990). "She is very Italian,"
Habibullah commented, noting the long memory Mrs. Gandhi has
for those who cross her family. In the meantime, the
uncertainty over the transfer of power in Srinagar keeps the
rumor mill producing at full steam.


8. (C) On a positive note, National Conference leader Farooq
Abdullah told us that most Kashmiris have put politics aside
to help with relief work. Abdullah and Mehbooba each thanked
us for USG aid that is arriving through NGOs, although
Abdullah also denounced the GOI policy of refusing direct
bilateral assistance as "stupid."

Observations of Quake's Long-Term Impact
--------------


9. (C) Habibullah also shared with us his judgment that the
earthquake will cause more political and social change on the
Pakistani side of Kashmir than on the Indian side. He noted
that the Indian sectors hardest hit, Uri and Tangdghar, were
already predominately Indian Army-run areas where civil
authority was largely inactive and ineffective and the state
government maintained a minimal presence (which is why the
Army has the lead on relief and reconstruction). Habibullah
predicted that the quake would have a more dramatic long-term
impact on Pakistani Kashmir.

Comment: Plus Ca Change ...
--------------

10. (C) It is perhaps axiomatic in Indian (and broader South
Asian) politics that disaster brings together those most
closely affected, while those who are able to view the damage
from the distance of Delhi remain focused on their own
political calculations. We would not be surprised to see a
rush of Kashmiri politicians cross the border to offer
assistance, following the trail blazed by Kashmiri separatist
leader Yasin Malik (Ref B). They do so out of a genuine
desire to help, but also with their telegenic side to the
camera, because peace is also still good for votes. Although
it is early to predict how this will play out, there is a
widespread sense here in Delhi that aside from its geologic
impact, the earthquake is shifting the political ground
underneath the Kashmir issue. The PM is using the earthquake
to advance his vision of an increasingly permeable LoC that
ceases to be the central issue of the dispute. Kashmiris
themselves have enthusiastically embraced this vision,
providing a window of opportunity for future progress toward
normalization of life across the erstwhile state of J&K.
BLAKE