GROWING FEARS OF AN INDECISIVE OUTCOME AS BIHAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008053

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: GROWING FEARS OF AN INDECISIVE OUTCOME AS BIHAR
GOES TO THE POLLS

Classified By: Consul General Henry Jardin, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Bihar goes to the polls tomorrow, October
18, in its second set of State elections in less than nine
months. Over 500 candidates made their last efforts over
the past weekend to sway voters, in what all observers
believe will be a close election. However, the Rashtriya
Janata Dal (RJD) under the leadership of United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, looks to
be weaker coming into this election than in the February,s
hung election, giving the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)
of the Janata Dal (United) (JDU) and the Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) an opportunity to pick up additional votes and
tilt the balance in their favor. The lack of a clear winner
is sparking growing fears that this election could be just as
indecisive as the last and leave the state with a "hung
parliament" yet again. End Summary


2. (U) With polling for the first phase of the State
elections set to begin on October 18, over 500 candidates
ended their campaigning on October 16 in Bihar,s 57 Assembly
constituencies. Four (out of the total 61) constituencies in
Naxalite-hit Gaya district were excluded from the first phase
for security reasons. Polling in these constituencies will
now take place on October 21.

3. (U) Bihar has always experienced violence during
elections and recent campaigning was marred by the October 6
attack on former Union Minister and BJP leader Ravi Shankar
Prasad while addressing a rally. One person was also
arrested at a Lalu Prasad rally for carrying a revolver.
Bihar Chief Secretary GS Kang assigned around 90,000 Central
Para-Military Forces, Bihar military police, armed police and
home guards to provide security, while Indian Air Force
choppers patrolled the skies to ward off any threat from
Naxalites, who put up posters in 12 districts warning
villagers that they faced severe consequences if they went to
the polls. The state's Chief Electoral Officer NK Sinha also
specified that the Election Commission would not allow voting
in booths without adequate security.

4. (U) There are over 12 million eligible voters in the
State and 13,338 polling stations. The Bihar election office
told media that more than 140,000 criminals were arrested in
the past three months in a special drive launched at the
behest of the Chief Election Commission. The police also
seized over 3,000 firearms and unearthed over 100 illegal gun
factories.

5. (U) Just as in the February 2005 elections, the UPA is
less unified than the opposition NDA. However, this time
there will be a three-way split, as Ram Vilas Paswan and his
Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) has left the UPA and set up its
own electoral coalition. That means that this year's
election will be a triangular contest between the NDA (BJP
and JD(U)),the RJD-led Secular Democratic Front (Congress,
NCP) and the LJP coalition (LJP, CPI and CPI(M)).

6. (U) The first phase is most crucial for the RJD, which
must demonstrate that it has sufficient momentum to win a
clear victory and form the government. It must do better
than it did in the February parliamentary elections, when
the results were:
-RJD 23
-JD (U) 12
-BJP 4
-LJP 9
-CPI-ML 4
-Samajwadi Party 1
-Congress 1
-independents 3

7. (U) The last Assembly election was a very close contest
between the RJD and the NDA in terms of votes polled.
-RJD 75 seats (25.07 per cent)
-NDA 92 seats ( 25.52 per cent)
-JD (U) 55 seats (14.55 per cent)
-BJP 37 seats (10.97 per cent)
-LJP 29 seats (12 per cent)
-Congress 10 seats (5 per cent)
-NCP 3 seats ( 0.98 per cent)
-CPI-ML 7 seats (2.49 per cent)
-CPI 3 seats (1.58 per cent)
-CPI-M 1 seat (0.64 per cent)
-Samajwadi Party 4 seats (2.69 per cent)
-BSP 2 seats (4.41 per cent)
-and independents 17 seats (16.16 per cent).

9. (SBU) Comment. Lalu, the RJD and its UPA partners seem
weaker going into this election compared to February.
Paswan,s effort to create a third bloc appears to have had
more of an impact on the RJD than the NDA in that he may have
split the crucial Muslim vote. In addition, the JD(U),even
given its alliance with the BJP, seems to be attracting some
Muslim votes as well. Finally, the RJD is facing greater
resentment after its 14 years of misrule, causing more of its
once-enthusiastic constituents within the Muslim and backward
caste communities to openly express a desire for change. One
of the three contesting coalitions must score a decisive
victory to form a stable government. With such a close
three-way contest, there are growing fears that Bihar could
face yet another "hung assembly" and growing instability.
BLAKE