HOME SECRETARY OPTIMISTIC ON PAKISTANI TIES, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007803

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: HOME SECRETARY OPTIMISTIC ON PAKISTANI TIES, BUT
LAMENTS SLOW PROGRESS ON TERRORISM


Classified By: DCM Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Reviewing India-Pakistan relations for
visiting US Ambassador to Islamabad Ryan Crocker, Home
Secretary VK Duggal observed on October 4 that Indo-Pak

SIPDIS
relations are generally "on the upswing," but lamented the
lack of concrete evidence of a change of Pakistani intentions
toward India. Duggal stressed the need for Pakistan to
dismantle infrastructure to support terrorism. Despite
reservations about Islamabad's sincerity, however, PM
Manmohan Singh has directed the GOI to continue the policy of
rapprochement with Pakistan. End Summary.

Rapprochement Popular
--------------


2. (C) Noting the broad responsibilities of the Ministry of
Home Affairs in most aspects of Indo-Pak relations, Duggal
observed that, in Confidence-Building Measures,
people-to-people exchanges, cultural and sports exchanges,
and new and proposed bus services between India and Pakistan,
"everything seems to be moving okay." He regretted the "lost
opportunity" to expand tourism when Pakistan decided at the
last minute to refuse visas to a delegation from India's
tourism and travel industry, pointing out that India's
300-million-strong (and growing) middle class would be
enthusiastic tourists to Pakistan, boosting cross-border ties
and adding to Pakistan's economy.


3. (C) Domestic Indian tourism in Jammu and Kashmir is also
a product of warming ties and a reduced number of security
incidents, Duggal said, noting that 400,000 to 500,000
tourists had visited J&K this year, and that the GOI had been
able to open the Vaishno Devi shrine to a record number of
pilgrims.

Less Positive on Security
--------------


4. (C) Duggal commented that he would "like to say" that
things are better on the security front, but despite
Pakistan's statements against cross-border terrorism, the
facts on the ground do not provide enough evidence of an
irreversible change in policy. Sometimes, he observed, the
right hand may not know what the left hand is doing, but if
terrorist incidents occur regularly, it is more difficult for
the GOI to accept that it is not state policy. However, he
noted, infiltration across the line of control and terrorist
attacks in India have declined somewhat, and the overall
level of terrorism is not too high to prevent India from
moving forward in its dialogue with Pakistan.


5. (C) Unfortunately, Duggal continued, while the number of
incidents has declined, the choice of targets in recent
incidents has dismayed New Delhi. Bombs in Srinagar that
targeted schools and marketplaces are more difficult to
accept than attacks on army personnel, and the July 5 attack
on the disputed Ayodhya temple complex "could have been a
major disaster" had the attackers been able to reach the
temple itself.

Cooperation Continues Despite Frustrations
--------------


6. (C) In addition to continuing terrorism and infiltration,
India has evidence of militant training camps in Pakistan and
the entry of Pakistani-backed terrorists into India via Nepal
and Bangladesh, Duggal stated. Despite a 1989 agreement to
return wanted criminals, Pakistan has not made any steps to
extradite persons wanted by India, including Dawood Ibrahim
and the Sikh organizers of the May 22 New Delhi cinema
bombings, Duggal complained. Nevertheless, PM Manmohan Singh
has instructed the security services to take defensive
actions to guard the country against terrorism, even as the
GOI continues the peace dialogue with Islamabad. While New
Delhi would like a "quid pro quo," Duggal commented, the
process is still "quid, quid, quid."


7. (C) Ambassador Crocker pointed out Islamabad's commitment
to its ongoing anti-terrorist operations in North Waziristan,
including the willingness to take casualties, observing that
Musharraf appears to have realized that he cannot afford to
lose the campaign against militant groups. Islamabad may not
yet have decided its strategy for reining in the terrorist
groups, but it has concluded that they are dangerous to
Pakistan, and Musharraf realizes that the insurgency in
Kashmir is linked to the groups who attempted to assassinate
him. Even Pakistani mass media coverage of Kashmiri leaders
has shown evidence of this shift in the last year, focusing
on more moderate figures in place of hard-liners like
Geelani, who used to be featured.

Still a Ways to Go
--------------


8. (C) Duggal agreed with Ambassador Crocker's assessment of
Pakistan's choices, but pointed out that comprehensively
stopping terrorism would be difficult for Islamabad because
of the extensive network of madrassas, training camps,
weapons procurement rings, and drug mafias that combined to
support militancy. Kashmir has had "absolutely free"
elections, he said, and Pakistan has no more reason to speak
about freedom for Kashmir. He noted that India and Pakistan
had agreed five years before to cooperate against the drug
trafficking that funds the terror networks, but complained
Pakistan had not yet agreed to the MOU to govern that
cooperation. However, he concluded, PM Singh's decision to
continue rapprochement guides GOI policy, and the security
services have been able to cope with the current level of
threats emanating from Pakistan.


9. (U) Ambassador Crocker has cleared this message.


10. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
Mulford