GOI J&K POINTMAN CAUTIOUSLY UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007794

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PBTS IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: GOI J&K POINTMAN CAUTIOUSLY UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK,
OPPOSES ARTIFICIAL TIMETABLES

REF: A. NEW DELHI 7259

B. NEW DELHI 1480

Classified By: DCM Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: In an October 4 meeting with visiting US
Ambassador to Islamabad Ryan Crocker, GOI Interlocutor on
Kashmir NN Vohra was generally upbeat on Indo-Pak relations
and said that Islamabad is sending positive signals on
Kashmir, but Musharraf is not doing enough to combat
cross-border terrorism. He was forward-leaning on
possibilities for future Indo-Pak cooperation in Kashmir, but
cautioned that India won't be rushed into anything,
especially with a Pakistani leader they feel they cannot
trust. End Summary.

Upbeat on Indo-Pak State of Play
--------------


2. (C) Vohra was positive on the diplomatic state of play
between New Delhi and Islamabad, and noted incremental
progress on trade and people-to-people interaction. "There
is a thaw, and forward movement, but we need to foster mutual
interdependence to increase peoples' investment in peace and
normalcy," he said. Commenting briefly on the October 3-5
Foreign Ministers' meetings in Islamabad, Vohra predicted
that "there will be some movement on Siachen," which was
short-listed for special attention by the two governments in
the joint statement issued later that day.


3. (C) Vohra continued that visible indicators look good,
and he listed reviving the Joint Committee to facilitate
trade (Ref B),expanding trade and transportation links
("many Kashmir focused"),and PM Singh's visit to Pakistan
(dates TBD) all as positive signs. On expanding
transportation services in Kashmir, he told Ambassador
Crocker that Pakistan had turned down a Kargil-Skardu bus
route, but was interested and "on the right track" on the
Jammu-Sialkot bus service. On people-to-people interactions,
Vohra was especially positive, saying that "their
(beneficial) impact is difficult to describe."

GOP Sending Positive Kashmir Signals ...
--------------


4. (C) Vohra added that Islamabad's decision to shift its
attention toward the moderate Mirwaiz Kashmiri separatist
faction and away from hardliners such as SAS Geelani was very
constructive. He described his meeting in Delhi with former
Pakistani Kashmir leader Sardar Qayyum Khan as positive, if
anodyne: "He said nothing revolutionary, nor did we expect
him to." He noted, however, that Qayyum was castigated by
extremists in Pakistan -- especially by the Hizbul Mujahedeen
and the United Jehad Council terrorist outfits -- for his
remark that "azadi ("freedom") would not be possible for 100
years," a comment that was well received in New Delhi.

... But Not Doing Enough on the Ground
--------------


5. (C) Turning to Kashmir-oriented terrorism, Vohra warned
that Musharraf continues to "tighten and loosen the tap," the
jihadis remain the main players in Kashmir, he affirmed, and
Geelani cannot be entirely written off. He was particularly
concerned by a disturbing new trend of high altitude
infiltration the Army tracked over the past few months.
According to Vohra, even large groups of terrorists are
beginning to choose passes over 15,000 feet and in tougher
terrain over easier traditional routes.
India Knows It Can't Avoid Kashmir Forever ...
-------------- -


6. (C) Vohra downplayed Pakistani concerns that normalizing
Indo-Pak relations would allow New Delhi to forget Kashmir:
"It's just not possible, the whole world wants us to solve
this." He agreed with Ambassador Crocker on the importance
of articulating to Islamabad that this was an unfounded fear,
and that both governments need to address the aspirations of
all their peoples. The GOI considers the confidence-building
and normalization processes to be the necessary groundwork
for, and not an alternative to, substantial progress on
Kashmir, Vohra explained.

... But Artificial Timelines Do Not Help
--------------


7. (C) Vohra throughout the meeting reiterated that the GOI
would not permit Musharraf to "hurry up a solution."
"Musharraf needs to keep to a reasonable pace, pushing does
not work in India, speeding up a process only leads people to
question more deeply what you are doing," he advised. Vohra
also cautioned against raising expectations of a timeline, as
long as incremental progress continued at a reasonable pace.

Indo-Pak Water Cooperation Critical (and Possible)
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Water scarcity is a contentious issue in both
countries, especially in the two Punjabs, because the
glaciers that feed the watersheds are contracting at an
alarming pace, Vohra reported. He underlined that bilateral
relations would have to improve dramatically before any
substantial cooperation in this field is possible, and noted
that a number of hydel projects in J&K have added to Indo-Pak
tensions (Ref A). That said, Vohra outlined a series of
cooperative projects that he said would benefit both
countries once relations are firmly on the right track: joint
forest and conservation management, soliciting Pakistani
investment in hydel power generation in J&K to give
Pakistanis a voice and a stake in development, and "free
trade in power" (i.e. connecting the electricity grids).

GOI Needs Musharraf to Prove Himself
--------------


9. (C) Vohra contrasted Musharraf ("one man answerable to
nobody else") to the UPA government ("a coalition answerable
to a dozen constituencies and more"). Ambassador Crocker
answered that Musharraf must still balance important
constituencies and did not have the unimpeded freedom of
action that some ascribe to him. Vohra nodded in agreement
when Ambassador Crocker added that public sentiment is
important even in non-democracies, but underlined that the
GOI needed to be confident that Musharraf would live up to
his commitments, including on terrorism -- and demonstrate
this by taking "irreversible steps against terrorist
infrastructure" -- before New Delhi would entertain any
"final solution" on Kashmir. Ambassador Crocker pointed out
that, ultimately, only the GOI could determine Musharraf's
sincerity.


10. (U) Ambassador Crocker has cleared this message.


11. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
Mulford