Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI749
2005-01-31 12:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

HIGH TURNOUT IN FIRST ROUND OF J&K LOCAL ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PTER PHUM IN PK 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000749 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM IN PK
S
SUBJECT: HIGH TURNOUT IN FIRST ROUND OF J&K LOCAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000749

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM IN PK
S
SUBJECT: HIGH TURNOUT IN FIRST ROUND OF J&K LOCAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Consolidating the pattern set in other recent state elections, Kashmiris turned out in large numbers in municipal elections in North Kashmir on January 30, defying terrorist intimidation and a separatist-led boycott campaign, and demonstrating that they want to have a greater say in how they are governed at the grassroots level. In recognition of these sentiments, All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leaders toned down their opposition slightly in recent days, with even the most hardline opponent SAS Geelani saying ""Civic elections are OK. It's not a vote for India. They voted for their civic problems."" Held after an interval of 27 years, these polls will elect Mayors and City Councils across the state, and continue on a rolling basis until February 17. Extrapolating from the first round, these polls reflect Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed's attempts to erode Kashmiris' alienation from India by further democratizing the lower levels of state politics. The next major contests are in Srinagar on February 1, and South Kashmir on February 6, 12, and 17. Suggested press guidance in para 10. End Summary.
Strong First Round Showing
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2. (U) Preliminary results from the first round of municipal elections held in North Kashmir on January 30 show strong support for the government's continuing efforts to normalize the political process there. The most important barometer of success in Kashmir elections -- turnout -- indicated higher participation across the board, including in strongholds of separatist sentiment like Sopore and Baramulla. State election officials reported that percentage turnout figures were as follows, which we contrast to the most recent 2002 Assembly elections:
Town 2005 2002 Baramulla 38 24 Uri 78 66 Sopore 25 8 Bandipora 60 31 Kupawara 83 55 Handwara 89 51


3. (U) The ruling PDP-Congress coalition appears to have done well, sweeping a majority in seven of nine towns in Baramulla and Kupwara districts. The opposition National Conference (NC) reportedly did well in several smaller towns.

The surprise was the strong performance of the Awami League, founded by Kukka Parray, a former militant who was assassinated in 2003 after crossing over to the government side, and the success of numerous independent candidates.
Finance Minister Muzaffar Beig called the turnout an ""eyeopener for the Hurriyat,"" observing sharply that ""boycotting elections does not contribute to peace and development.""
Strong Anti-Poll Campaign
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4. (U) These elections follow a vigorous boycott campaign for which all major separatist groups weighed in. Both moderate and hardline factions of the Hurriyat have been outspoken in their opposition. The pro-independence JKLF leader Yasin Malik and a JKLF spin-off group led by his former ally Javed Mir have been particularly active.
Moderate Hurriyat leader Abbas Ansari dismissed reports of high turnouts, commenting that ""lines in front of polling booths do not matter,"" and that ""Mufti is good at renting crowds."" Moderate APHC leaders Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Prof AG Bhat denied suggestions that the Hurriyat was under pressure from rank-and-file members to join the elections or to back proxy candidates. Malik called turnout reports ""bogus,"" arguing that harsh winter weather would keep people away from polling stations and charging the government with inflating the numbers for political reasons.

5. (C) After several weeks of agitation, however, separatist opposition may be weakening. The Mirwaiz ignored the issue at Friday prayers in Srinagar on January 28 and did not call for a boycott. Even the most irroconcilable opponent, pro-Pakistan hardliner SAS Geelani, who earlier trashed the polls as ""eyewash"" and ""a sham,"" told the press on January 30 that ""Civic elections are OK. It's not a vote for India.
They voted for their civic problems.""
Targetted Violence Sparks Candidates Withdrawals
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6. (U) Since nomination papers were filed, terrorists have attacked candidates from all major political parties, killing at least three. The worst attack of the campaign came on January 27, when militants attacked an election office outside Srinagar, wounding 26 people. PDP President Mehbooba Mufti escaped unhurt from an attack on her motorcade on January 24. The militant group al-Mansourian has been particularly active, spreading leaflets in many towns and villages in an attempt to scare voters and candidates from participating; at least 152 of the latter have withdrawn from the process already, and dozens more followed on January 31, taking out advertisements in local papers announcing their withdrawal to avoid reprisals from the insurgents. Some politicians complained of a lack of security, but the police responded that they could not provide security to the several thousand candidates statewide.
Election Details
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7. (U) These polls are to elect Mayors and 3 City Councils and 30 Committees (the latter in smaller towns) across J&K, positions that have been held by appointed officials since the last such exercise in 1977. Voters will first elect ward members, according to the schedule below, who will elect mayors after the councils have been constituted. No polling will take place in the Kargil or Leh regions of the state because of severe winter weather. One-third of the candidates are women, and an unprecedented number of young people and independents have entered the fray, according to journalists in Srinagar. ""Chattan"" editor Tahir Mohiuddin told us that Mufti chose this time to hold polls bolster his standing vis-a-vis the NC, to fulfill another campaign promise in his Common Minimum Program, and to bolster PDP ranks before it transfers the Chief Ministership to the Congress party in November.


8. (U) Polling will proceed as follows: Baramulla and Kupwara Municipal Council - January 29 Srinagar Municipal Corporation - February 1 Jammu Municipal Corporation - February 1 Anantnag, Pulwama Municipal Council/Committee - February 6 Jammu, Kathua Municipal Council/Committee - February 7 Srinagar, Badgam Municipal Council/Committee - February 10 Doda, Udhampur Municipal Council/Committee - February 12 Rajouri, Poonch Municipal Council/Committee - February 17
Comment
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9. (C) The first round is further evidence that Kashmiris clearly want to influence, if they cannot determine, their own affairs. As during the 2002 J&K Assembly elections, this heightened interest in grassroots democracy reflects Kashmiris' desire to improve their daily lives, if they cannot settle the larger Kashmir issue now. As one commentator put it, this is about ""azadi (""freedom,"" a separatist rallying cry) from garbage, choked drains, potholed roads."" The large number of women and young candidates demonstrates that ordinary Kashmiris will engage politically around issues that concern them directly. The turnout figures also reveal continuing popular resistance to terrorist intimidation and represent a rebuff to separatists who urged a boycott. The Hurriyat's rejectionist position, on the grounds that these polls ""will not resolve the Kashmir problem"" is disappointing, as they have missed yet another opportunity to shape their political environment, let alone to climb the road to power. The challenge remains for the state government, and the GOI, to translate Kashmiri interest in improving daily life into enthusiasm for larger India issues.


10. (C) Given the relatively lower stakes, we did not observe these polls (as we did in 2002 and 2004),and cannot comment on the credibility of the electoral process. Charges of irregularities from the NC bear watching, although NC President Omar Abdullah has taken the polls rather lightly, spending the weekend in New Delhi rather than campaigning prior to February 1 Srinagar polling. The government's decision not to use electronic voting machines is a potential weakness in electoral procedures. Kashmiri Pandits have also complained that 60,000 refugees were left off from voter lists in Jammu, but we understand that they have accepted an as yet vague solution brokered by Mufti that would give Pandits positions in these town bodies once the poll results are known.
Suggested Press Guidance
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11. (U) We recommend the following guidance:
We welcome the Indian government's decision to hold Municipal Corporation and Municipal Council/Committee elections in J&K after a hiatus of 27 years. These polls continue the positive trends that began with the 2002 state Legislative Assembly elections. We note in particular the large number of women and young candidates.
We have seen initial reports from the first round from January 30 polling in North Kashmir. These reports indicate strong voter participation in areas where turnout has been low in recent years (e.g. Sopore and Baramulla).
These reports are encouraging, as they demonstrate Kashmiris' continuing desire to participate in the political process and to restore a sense of normalcy to the state. As in the most recent elections in 2002 and 2004, we salute the Kashmiris' courage and their refusal to yield to terrorists' threats or to follow the heed of those who have called for a boycott.
MULFORD