Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI7432
2005-09-23 11:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

UNFOUNDED "THIRD FRONT" RUMORS HINT AT CONGRESS

Tags:  PGOV IN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

231126Z Sep 05
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007432 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: UNFOUNDED "THIRD FRONT" RUMORS HINT AT CONGRESS
ANXIETY

REF: A. NEW DELHI 7230


B. NEW DELHI 7345

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007432

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: UNFOUNDED "THIRD FRONT" RUMORS HINT AT CONGRESS
ANXIETY

REF: A. NEW DELHI 7230


B. NEW DELHI 7345

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Persistent rumors in Indian political
circles that the Left Front (LF) is conspiring with the
Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mulayam Singh Yadav to construct a
"third front" capable of unseating the present United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) government are unfounded. The LF
benefits from the political status quo, which has provided it
unprecedented influence over the GOI. It remains focused on
upcoming elections in Bihar, West Bengal and Kerala, where it
could do well and increase its influence still further. The
SP has little in common with the LF and the two would have
trouble working together. Although the blatant opportunism
of Indian politicians, coupled with the allure of power could
still send the country in a different direction, India has
been heading for a two coalition political system for some
time. Still, Congress party anxiety about the threat of a
"third front," illustrates how fragile the UPA coalition
remains, despite Manmohan Singh's growing stature and
confidence. End Summary.

The Rumor Synopsized
--------------


2. (C) An often-repeated rumor circulating among the
political chatterati is that the Left Front (LF) and Mulayam
Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) are conspiring to
construct a third front that would bring down the current
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government and replace it.
Once together, these two groups would enlist additional
support from disgruntled regional parties currently part of
the UPA. The LF would then withdraw its support, bringing
down the UPA. The third front would then approach the
President with a request to form a new government.

Building on a few Facts
--------------


3. (C) Like most Indian rumors, this one has a slim basis
in fact. Vajpayee's August 30th call for mid-term elections
increased speculation that perhaps the BJP was negotiating to
join with the LF and SP to bring down the government. Others
speculated that Vajpayee had done the math and determined
that an LF and SP move to form a third front government was
doomed to failure, as they would not be able to assemble the
necessary number of votes, and that this would result in a

mid-term election. Vajpayee never repeated his remarks and
the speculation they fueled has died down.


4. (C) The rumors are also based on the friendly ties
between the LF and SP. These date back to an earlier era
when the Samajwadi (socialist) Party was a genuine left
party. It has since degenerated into a mercenary,
unprincipled group characterized primarily by corruption,
political violence and personal aggrandizement. This has not
prevented more nostalgic members of the LF from meeting
frequently with Mulayam Singh, Amar Singh and others from the
SP leadership. These meetings get wide press play and feed
the rumor mill.

A Third Front is a Nonstarter
--------------


5. (C) While the threat of a "Third Front" has introduced
more uncertainty into the political mix, the LF still enjoys
significant advantages within the UPA. Supporting the UPA
from outside, it has gained considerable influence over
India's political and economic policies. Not part of the
government, it is free to criticize UPA policies, lobby for
its own agenda, and not take the blame when things go wrong.


6. (C) The LF would be cautious about abandoning this strong
position to venture out into uncharted territory with
unreliable regional parties (and maybe even the right-wing
BJP) as its allies. The LF prides itself on a strong
ideological stance and relative incorruptibility. It
presents itself as the honest alternative to the politics of
other parties. The SP, represents no ideology except
nihilistic opportunism and all pervasive corruptibility. The
two groups alone would make very strange bedfellows. Add the
BJP to the mix, and a chimera develops. The only glue to
bind them would be naked opportunism.

Elections Take Top Priority
--------------


7. (C) In elections over the next year, the LF is certain to
retain power in West Bengal, and hopeful it will return to
power in Kerala and play a significant role in formation of
the next government in Bihar. The Communists could gain in
strength after these state elections and play an even more
significant role in influencing the UPA. Until the electoral
scenario is played out, the LF is not likely to end support
for the UPA or give serious consideration to third front
politics.

Congress the Spoiler?
--------------


8. (C) To complicate the situation even further, the
Congress may view the political disarray of its BJP rivals as
an opening to solidify its control in parliament and call for
mid-term elections. Currently, Congress holds only 146
parliamentary seats and is dependent on support from the LF
and regional parties to retain a majority. Seeing an opening
provided by the ongoing and never-ending divisions which have
weakened the BJP (reftels),Congress may itself call mid-term
elections, after assessing the upcoming state polls.


9. (C) Party strategists could determine that if BJP
desertions continue, Congress could gain sufficient strength
to form a government without LF support. The Prime
Minister's advisers tell us he is deeply frustrated by the
limits to his agenda that this dependency imposes.
Congress always plays to win and is not comfortable ruling in
a coalition were it must answer to "lesser" parties.
However, this strategy is very risky in light of the Indian
voter's typical anti-incumbency sentiment. Most observers
predicted an easy victory for the BJP in the May 2004
elections and its resulting defeat by Congress demonstrates
the whimsical nature of Indian politics, and provides an
object lesson as to why early polls are a bad idea.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) India has been heading in fits and starts towards a
center-left/center-right political system for some time.
Recent stumbling by the BJP and an unexpected resurgence by
the LF (septel) have fed speculation that India could return
to a political system with at least three political power
centers. Opportunists like Mulayam Singh Yadav know that
once a two-coalition political system takes root, they could
only play a supporting role in New Delhi. Such politicians
take comfort in third front rumors and encourage them,
because they hold out the possibility that a regional leader
could become Prime Minister. Although the blatant
opportunism of such politicians, coupled with the allure of
power, could still send the country in a different direction,
in our view, it would be extremely difficult to overcome the
current momentum toward a two coalition system. National
parties like the BJP and Congress are most likely to form the
core of any future governments. Despite this, Congress
insiders continue to take these rumors seriously,
illustrating the continued vulnerability of the UPA
government to a sudden shove that could unbalance the
country's Parliamentary arithmetic.

12 (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
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