Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI7345
2005-09-20 12:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

ALL EYES ON VAJPAYEE AS ADVANI AND RSS TUSSLE

Tags:  ECON PGOV PINR PREL PTER IN PK BG 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007345 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV PINR PREL PTER IN PK BG
SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON VAJPAYEE AS ADVANI AND RSS TUSSLE

REF: NEW DELHI 7230

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007345

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2015
TAGS: ECON PGOV PINR PREL PTER IN PK BG
SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON VAJPAYEE AS ADVANI AND RSS TUSSLE

REF: NEW DELHI 7230

Classified By: Political Counselor Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The BJP's leadership conclave in Chennai
ended with a bang when LK Advani picked a very public fight
with the Hindu right-wing RSS over the future ideological
direction of the party. On September 18, Advani finally
submitted to RSS pressure to resign (in December) as party
president. However, he handed the RSS a phyrric victory and
broke some Hindutva crockery by stating that he disagreed
with the extent to which the RSS micro-manages BJP
decision-making, and urged the RSS to stick to "cultural"
matters. Advani will purportedly remain as the Parliamentary
opposition leader, but there is already widespread
speculation that he may lose that position as well. It is
not yet clear whether the RSS will succeed in naming Murli
Manohar Joshi or another Hindutva hard-liner to the BJP
President's post. Although the BJP leadership claims that
Advani's announcement ended party divisions and they are
prepared to contest and win upcoming elections, insiders tell
us privately that the protracted conflict has taken its toll.
Attention is focusing yet again on former PM Vajpayee as the
one person who can work political miracles and unite the
party in time. Meanwhile, a BJP resolution underlined the
party's strong opposition to opening the retail sector to
FDI, illustrating the two front battle the PM must wage if he
wishes to accelerate the pace of economic reform. End
Summary.

Advani Throws in the Towel..in December
--------------


2. (U) As expected (reftel),at the conclusion of the
party's three day conclave in Chennai on September 18, LK
Advani announced his imminent departure from the post of BJP
Party President. In his concluding statement, Advani
confirmed that he would leave and hand over to his successor
at the party's silver jubilee celebrations in December. For
the time being, Advani will remain as leader of the
opposition in Parliament. However, our contacts speculate

that shortly after he leaves the post of Party President,
Advani may be forced to resign from this position as well.


But Throws Down the Gauntlet
--------------


3. (U) Although many within the Sangh Parivar had been
pressing for Advani's departure for the past four months, it
was not the moment of triumph they expected. In his remarks,
Advani made it clear that he resented the heavy-handed role
of the RSS, and urged the organization to restrict itself to
cultural activities and nationbuilding and refrain from
active political involvement.


4. (U) Advani stated that: "lately an impression has gained
ground that no political or organizational decision can be
taken without the consent of the RSS functionaries. This
perception, we hold, will do no good either to the party or
to the RSS."

No Clear Successor, but RSS Pulls in its Horns
-------------- -


5. (U) The RSS assumed a low profile after the resignation.
The organization's spokesman Ram Madhav termed Advani's
announcement "an internal matter of the BJP." Madhav refused
to comment on Advani's remarks regarding the RSS and its
political role, saying only that "we have taken note of his
suggestions. We will discuss this issue with the BJP in the
near future." No one in the RSS made public suggestions as
to who should replace Advani as BJP President.


6. (U) Although there is no clear front-runner for the post
and a "dark horse" could emerge, three potential Presidents
are most frequently mentioned by the pundits. Murli Manohar
Joshi, the BJP General Secretary is the favorite of the Sangh
Parivar, but may be too old for the position. Sushma Swaraj,
the party's Deputy Leader in the Rajya Sabha, is another
frontrunner. Swaraj may not be favored by the RSS, as she
was initially a socialist and has never been tied to the
Sangh Parivar. Former Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh (UP)
Rajnath Singh could emerge as a compromise candidate. Singh
was able to engineer the BJP's only recent electoral
victories in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. None of these
contenders have the political gravitas of Vajpayee or Advani.


7. (U) A well-placed journalist in Chennai claimed to Poloff
that Sushma Swaraj is best placed to replace Advani, as she
seems acceptable to the RSS, belongs to a family of former
Socialists and has a wider appeal than most BJP leaders.

What About the Issues?
--------------


8. (U) The controversy surrounding Advani's leadership
overshadowed substantive resolutions on the issues facing
India. The BJP conclave issued three resolutions on
politics, economics, and internal security, which attempted
to spell-out the party's positions. They were meant to
galvanize the party before upcoming elections, but received
little attention.

An Ineffectual Governing Alliance?
--------------


9. (U) The political resolution decried the era of United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) rule as one of "ramshackle
governance, incoherence, recklessness and drift." The BJP
argued that the UPA is a weak coalition based on "anti-BJPism
and a warped articulation of secularism," and therefore is
plagued by competing power-centers and incapable of
formulating and executing an agenda for the nation. The
resolution accused the UPA of an "assault on democracy in
Goa, Jharkhand and Bihar," where it "misused the office of
the Governor for narrow, partisan ends."


10. (U) The UPA's pandering to India's Muslims has allegedly
had "hideous consequences on national unity," by reviving
"religion-based quotas," and "emboldening reactionary clerics
into issuing edicts which violate the dignity and human
rights of Muslim women." The resolution promised that the
BJP would "continue to play the role of a robust nationalist
opposition in Parliament and outside."

The BJP's Economic Alternative: Challenge on Retail Opening
-------------- --------------


11. (U) Stating that the UPA has "failed to honor" its
promises to "safeguard the interests of the common man, to
eradicate poverty and unemployment, to prevent farmers'
suicides, to end labor exploitation, to remove the
difficulties of the middle class and to accelerate the pace
of reform," the BJP resolution on economic policy promised to
provide an economic alternative. Because of the Left Front's
"veto power," the UPA is allegedly incapable of enacting
meaningful economic reforms and cannot "take and enforce
economic decisions." The resolution claimed that "whenever
the Congress has formed a government in alliance with the
Left parties, the interests of the country have always
suffered," and the resolution accused Congress of sacrificing
the "national interest" to appease the Communists.


12. (C) Surprisingly, the BJP's economic resolution accuses
the UPA of not going far enough in the introduction and
implementation of populist economic measures. For example,
the BJP criticized the UPA's National Employment Guarantee
Bill for providing guaranteed employment to only one adult
male per rural household. The party promised to extend the
bill to include over 40 million unemployed in urban areas,
provide employment to every able-bodied adult in a household
and pay a minimum of 60 rupees (usd 1.37) per day to each
worker. The BJP also promised to oppose FDI in India's
retail sector, claiming that it "will result in the
unemployment of tens of millions."

The UPA's Biggest Failure: Security
--------------


13. (U) Citing India's "deteriorating internal security
situation" as "the biggest failure of the UPA regime," the
BJP promised to address terrorism, Maoist Naxalites, and
"illegal infiltration" from Bangladesh. The BJP resolution
claimed that terrorism has increased "without inhibition"
under the UPA, as it has failed to draft a national policy.
The BJP promised to devise a "common strategy" to combat
Naxalites, put India on "high alert" regarding Pakistani
support to terrorism, to "keep a sharp eye on the activities
of the ISI," and to "identify, ...illegal infiltrators" and
make every effort to "send them back to Bangladesh."

Views from Chennai: RSS Needs to Chill Out
--------------


14. (C) In a September 19 meeting with Chennai Poloff, BJP
National Secretary L. Ganesen and former BJP treasurer
Sukumar Nambiar expressed serious concern about the outcome
of the BJP conclave. Both seemed reconciled to Advani,s
departure and a future BJP with a new generation of
leadership, expressing great respect for Advani but an
unwillingness to dilute party ideology and the RSS-BJP
relationship.


15. (C) Ganesen noted that Advani &shocked8 RSS workers
when he referred to Jinnah as a &great human being8 from
Pakistan, adding that Advani's resignation and open
questioning of the RSS-BJP relationship put the entire BJP
&in shock8 again. He adamantly maintained that despite
Advani's assertions, the RSS does not interfere with the
BJP's day-to-day operations. Both insisted that Advani would
continue as opposition leader in Parliament and would be
respected in the party, but noted that in the BJP ideology is
paramount. Ganesen pointed out that future party leadership
will come from a strong group of second tier leaders, who
will do a good job.

The Delhi Perspective: Relentless Public Optimism
-------------- --------------


16. (C) The party leadership contends that this episode will
not hurt its electoral chances. Former Foreign Minister
Jaswant Singh told reporters on September 18 that the BJP
fully expects to win the upcoming election in Bihar, saying
"We will continue to achieve what we have set for ourselves,
which is to unseat the unholy and corrupt organization of the
RJD-Congress combine." In private, BJP leaders are not so
sanguine. On September 15, BJP party insider and Delhi MLA
Vijay Jolly told Poloff that his party is deeply divided,
does not expect to win elections anytime soon and is prepared
to move slowly and methodically to regain power over the
longer term.


17. (C) On September 19, a journalist close to the BJP
leadership claimed to us that Vajpayee protected Advani in
Chennai by instructing his supporters to back the beleaguered
Party President. The journalist quoted BJP insiders who
confirmed that Vajpayee and Advani both want Sangh loyalists
under tight control, and "no Sangh interference in the
day-to-day affairs of the party."

18. (C) Rumors are already circulating in BJP circles that
Advani plans to work with Vajpayee between now and December
to humble the Sangh Parivar, shore up his position, and then
withdraw his resignation. If this proves impossible, Advani
purportedly will support Arun Jaitley as the next President,
as he has no political base and therefore no ambitions.

Comment: Vajpayee Yet Again in Control
--------------


19. (C) Events in Chennai have not resolved the deep divides
within the BJP. The Sangh Parivar has unseated Advani, but
he did not go quietly or turn the party over to its
hardliners. Advani is determined to make the BJP more viable
by making it more pragmatic. Instead of acquiescing to
Hindutva, he fired a shot across the bows of the RSS,
displaying his appetite for further combat to control the
BJP's agenda. With the party facing a tough electoral
contest in Bihar and what could be a bitter succession
struggle, all eyes have turned again to former PM Vajpayee,
who has emerged unscathed with increased stature. Many will
expect him to work his old magic, patch up divisions and have
a major voice in determining Advani's successor. With the
clock ticking and state elections approaching quickly, Advani
will have to work quietly behind the scenes to rein in RSS
Chief Sudarshan and other Hindutva hardliners in time for the
BJP to make a credible showing.


20. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
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