INDO-PAK UNGA MEETING POSITIVE, NO FIREWORKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007259

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015
TAGS: PTER PREL PHUM PGOV IN PK AF INDO PAK UNGA
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK UNGA MEETING POSITIVE, NO FIREWORKS

REF: A. NEW DELHI 6797


B. NEW DELHI 6520

C. NEW DELHI 2884

Classified By: CDA Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The September 14, four-hour Manmohan
Singh-Musharraf dinner meeting and joint statement on the
sidelines of UNGA continued the positive bilateral vibe even
if it did not produce new deliverables, MEA Joint Secretary
(Pakistan/Iran/Afghanistan) Dilip Sinha told us during a
September 15 office call. He added that the Second Round of
the Composite Dialogue was "satisfactory," and that the Third
Round would run from January-June. Sinha shared with us some
background to the massive prisoner exchange that preceded the
UNGA meeting, and noted that many more Indo-Pak interactions
are on the calendar, including planned visits to Pakistan by
the Foreign Minister and the Indian cricket team. On transit
rights for Indian aid to Afghanistan, he reported that
Islamabad had offered a creative solution -- using Afghan
trucks and drivers to deliver a food shipment -- that could
be replicated for shipping the heavy equipment and cables
needed to complete the Kabul-Phul-i-Khumri power project, and
suggested that we might work with the GOI on a new
agriculture project in Afghanistan. End Summary.

Joint Statement: "Neither Exultation nor Despair"
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2. (U) "Asian Age" Political Editor Seema Mustafa summed up
the sentiment in Delhi that the anodyne joint statement from
the September 14 Manmohan-Musharraf talks evinced "neither
exultation, nor a sense of despair." From the Delhi
perspective, the joint statement was long on positive
language but broke no new ground. The "Times of India"
described the meeting as "Another Chronicle of Wasted Time."


3. (C) Although many Delhi-based Pakistan-watchers had set
their sights on new breakthroughs at the UNGA meeting which
the leaders failed to deliver (Ref B),Sinha remained upbeat.
He did not have any inside scoop to share with us, but noted
that the web of Indo-Pak interactions planned through June
2006 should keep the dialogue on track and would periodically
produce tangible outcomes, like the accord on missile test
notification and the MOU between the Indian Coast Guard and
the Pakistani Maritime Agency that will be signed by the
Foreign Ministers during the 3-5 October Ministerial in
Islamabad. Former Director of the Observer Research
Foundation's Pakistan Centre Sushant Sareen separately blamed
the local media for hyping the event ahead of time in order
to slam it afterwards.

Maintaining Pressure on Cross-Border Terrorism
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4. (C) The PM's New York comments attributing to Islamabad
the ability to control "the flow of terror from Pakistan" was
a pointed reminder that, for the GOI, cross-border terrorism
is the "core issue" in Indo-Pak relations. Conversations
with our GOI interlocutors on the prospect of substantial
Indo-Pak progress are always underscored with the caveat that
the process could be derailed if Islamabad allows
cross-border terrorism to escalate. Furthermore, as the PM
also pointed out in New York, any future troop reductions in
J&K will be calibrated with the level and trajectory of
infiltration and terrorist attacks. An assessment of recent
and proposed changes in the Indian security posture in J&K
will follow septel.

Relations Back on Track
--------------

5. (C) Sinha labeled the September 1 Foreign Secretaries'
meeting that wrapped up the Second Round of the Composite
Dialogue as "satisfactory," although "it could have been
better." In his view, the most significant outcomes from
those talks were scheduling the Third Composite Dialogue
Round for January-June 2006, and reviving the Indo-Pak Joint
Commission to facilitate trade, transportation links, and
other economic interactions. Sinha described the Commission,
which had lain dormant since 1989, as an indicator that the
relationship is "back on track." The Commission will be
kicked off when the Foreign Ministers meet in Islamabad.

Prisoner Exchange a Massive Humanitarian CBM
--------------


6. (C) The run-up to the UNGA meeting was marked by a
massive exchange of civilian prisoners. A total of 583
prisoners -- 435 Indian nationals who were jailed in Pakistan
and 146 Pakistanis held in India -- were repatriated at the
Wagah border on September 12. The swap had been on the books
for months, but it did not become "a political issue for the
Islamabad" until recently, according to Sinha. He told us he
had demarched the Pakistani High Commission in Delhi for
consular access to the Indian prisoners and their
repatriation at least 3-4 times since he took his office in
March, and at least six more demarches went via the Indian
High Commission in Islamabad. In contrast, the Pakistanis
became engaged only over the summer, Sinha said. Indian Home
Secretary VK Duggal had proposed timing the release just

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prior to the Manmohan-Musharrarf meeting for political
effect, but Sinha told us that last-minute administrative
hiccups from Islamabad -- including passing the names of over
60 of the prisoners in mid-July and insisting that the lot be
cleared for the swap or they would call off the entire
exchange -- nearly scuttled the event. Sinha described a
massive logistical effort that went into mobilizing these
Pakistani detainees from across India and getting them to the
border by September 12.

The Calendar is Packed
--------------


7. (C) On Musharraf's offer to host the PM in Pakistan -- an
offer first made during Musharraf's April visit to Delhi --
Sinha predicted it would take place during the first half of

2006. Ramadan will be in October, the SAARC summit in
November, and then Parliament opens, he explained, ruling out

2005. Sinha added that there are two weeks at the end of
December, after Parliament concludes, that have been a
traditional time for Indo-Pak activity. This would be the
PM's first visit to Pakistan since Partition -- he grew up in
Gah, a Punjabi village that is now part of Pakistan.


8. (C) A raft of other bilateral interactions are also
planned for the fall, including meetings on the
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline and the deliverables from the
April joint statement (such as opening the consulates and
adding new transport links). Indo-Pak cricket has become an
annual event, with the Indian team planning to travel to
Pakistan in the January-February timeframe, Sinha added.

Facilitating Afghan Aid
--------------


9. (C) Picking up the thread of transit rights for Indian
aid to Afghanistan, Sinha reported that some shipments have
been cleared on a case-by-case basis, with the details
usually sorted out between Islamabad and Kabul. Regarding
reports of mini-vans being allowed transit, he clarified that
the GOP had approved the shipment but, because it was not
already in the GOI's assistance queue, Delhi would have to
assemble the vans for future delivery. Sinha recalled that
230 busses out of a package of 600 were previously delivered
overland through Pakistan.


10. (C) Furthermore, the next consignment of World Food
Program aid from India will transit Pakistan, Sinha reported,
in response to a request from the Afghan government. The
modalities, coordinated with the Indian Embassy in Kabul, are
for Afghan trucks and drivers to cross Pakistan, take
delivery, and return to Afghanistan. Sinha suggested that if
this arrangement proves successful and satisfies Islamabad's
concerns, it could be the framework for shipping the heavy
equipment and cables needed to complete the
Kabul-Phul-i-Khumri power project. Because the GOI promised
to convert cost savings from transit (vs. routing shipments
through Iran),he joked that he would have to calculate how
many extra substations India could now finance.


11. (C) Turning to the PM's August 28-29 visit to Kabul (Ref
A),Sinha -- who was in the delegation -- suggested that one
new area for Indo-US cooperation here would be in the
agriculture sector, which he noted was of great interest to
President Karzai. India is examining how "green revolution"
methods might be made available to Afghanistan. He ended by
reiterating that Iran was still uncooperative regarding the
Zaranj-Delaram road project.

Comment: Prospects Still Good
--------------


12. (C) Despite some of the gloom-mongering in the press,
Sinha's dispassionate assessment of the status of Indo-Pak
affairs appears accurate. The deliverables list from last
April are much less politically charged than the Composite
Dialogue topics, and further progress on the April CBMs --
and additional benefits, such as possible future easing of
transit restrictions for Afghan aid -- may be just what is
needed to pave the way for closure on the territorial and
other sensitive items. As NDTV's Ajai Shukla commented to
us, it was completely unrealistic to expect that India would
have agreed to any major Indo-Pak breakthrough in New York,
thereby cementing the notion of US mediation and handing a
political club to the BJP. Rather, he suggested, we should
take encouragement from what appears from here to be the
increasing normalization of Indo-Pak relations. End Comment.


13. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
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