WHITHER THE BJP?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007230

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IN PK
SUBJECT: WHITHER THE BJP?

REF: A. NEW DELHI 5685

B. NEW DELHI 5216

C. NEW DELHI 4447

D. NEW DELHI 4315

E. NEW DELHI 4270

F. NEW DELHI 4232

Classified By: CDA Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Well-documented divisions (reftels) have
recently prevented the BJP from fulfilling its role as
India's leading opposition party and led to a string of
electoral defeats. The latest "crisis" was the expulsion and
reinstatement of BJP leader Madan Lal Khurana. The core
issue is whether the Sangh Parivar (Hindu family of parties)
will capture the party or allow it to adopt a more moderate
course. The party will continue to decline until this issue
is resolved. The BJP's vituperative attack on PM Singh's
comments during a meeting with President Bush reflects this
malaise, and the readiness to jump on any issue that presents
itself. The party leadership will meet in Chennai September
16-18 in an attempt to address its internal issues. If it
fails to resolve this crisis, the BJP can expect continued
decline and likely defeat in a crucial electoral contest in
Bihar in mid October. BJP problems have already impacted the
Indian political system. The Left Front (LF) has moved to
occupy some of the opposition vacuum, and some within the
Left and regional parties have begun speculating about the
formation of a "third front" to replace the BJP as the
opposition leader (septel). Despite these developments, the
BJP should not be counted out, and it could still revive,
resume its place as India's leading opposition party and
return to power in New Delhi. End Summary.

Still More Divisions
--------------


2. (SBU) When in power, the BJP often appeared monolithic
and disciplined. Since being ousted from New Delhi, the
Sangh Parivar has fractured. Although the party had been
deeply divided for some time, the rift first became public
when the RSS expressed its displeasure at the party's aging
leadership duo of Party President LK Advani and former PM
Atal Behari Vajpayee and called for their replacement.
Advani fueled the flames with his unexpectedly conciliatory
remarks on Pakistani founder Muhammad ali Jinnah during his
May-June trip to Pakistan (reftel F).


3. (U) Advani's resignation as BJP President and subsequent
reinstatement only increased the sense of desperation. Most
political pundits inside and outside the party doubt that
Advani will be able to hold on and expect he will be forced
to again resign for a final time later this year. The
question is not if, but rather when. With his resignation
imminent, and no clear successor waiting in the wings, the
BJP has become locked in a leadership struggle that has
energized ambitious leaders and their various factions.
Second tier leaders are staking their claims as best
qualified to rejuvenate the party and lead it to victory.

Khurana as Bellwether: Modi Litmus Test
--------------


4. (U) The latest episode in the protracted factionalism
concerned the BJP's long-time political chieftain and former
Chief Minister Madan lal Khurana, who was expelled from the
BJP on September 11, and reinstated within 90 minutes after
submitting a letter of "apology" to the party on September

12. Khurana's fate was never the real issue. Indian media
and political pundits avidly followed the issue since it
could provide an indicator whether the BJP will become the
political mouthpiece of the Sangh Parivar (Hindu nationalist
family of parties),or evolve into a more conventional
opposition party.


5. (C) Advani expelled Khurana for criticizing Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi, the poster child of the Sangh
Parivar. Advani's position was that Khurana exhibited a lack
of "discipline," by questioning the party's failure to rein
in Modi and restrain his excesses. Under Modi's leadership,
Gujarat has become deeply divided between Modi's opponents
and supporters, and Advani has not intervened to resolve the
issue.


6. (C) Despite Advani's long association with the RSS and
his moves to placate them by supporting Modi, the
organization and its Sangh allies have determined that Advani
must be removed and replaced with someone more amenable to
their agenda. Should they succeed, it would indicate that
the Hindutva Wing has succeeded in its long-term goal of
capturing the BJP, dooming the party to the political
wilderness.


7. (C) Former PM Vajpayee, who has long mediated between
the Sangh Parivar and others within the BJP, tried to play
the same role in the Khurana affair. He first criticized
Advani for being too hasty in expelling Khurana, then
demanded that Khurana "apologize" before reinstatement, and
lastly papered-over his differences with Advani, calling him
"a friend, a colleague and the party president," and saying
"we work together and we should always do so." In actuality,
Vajpayee's flip-flops indicate the extent to which he has
lost the reins of the party.

Vacuum At the Top
--------------


8. (C) The recurring "crises" in the BJP reflect a power
vacuum at the top. Party President Advani has been forced on
the defensive by the Sangh Parivar's repeated attacks.
Consumed with his own defense and lacking reliable
lieutenants, he has been unable to manage the day to day
working of the party or devise an effective strategy to
combat upcoming elections or return the BJP to power in New
Delhi. Sensing Advani's weakness and imminent departure,
party leaders have stepped up their own campaigns to grab
power, not only to replace Advani, but to carve out power
bases in the states and define the BJP's future.


9. (C) As a result, the BJP's state units mirror the scene
in New Delhi, with factions fighting for dominance. In
addition to the bitter feud in Gujarat, the Uttar Pradesh BJP
is so deeply divided that it has all but disappeared as a
force in the country's largest state. In Madhya Pradesh,
former Chief Minister Uma Bharati and her supporters are
openly working to remove the BJP Chief Minister Babulal Gaur.
Similar inter-BJP battles are taking place in Rajasthan,
Jharkhand, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal
Pradesh and J&K, and most importantly in Bihar, which goes to
the polls on October 19.

Looking for Issues
--------------


10. (C) With the BJP in a deep malaise, it is having trouble
presenting a coherent and unified front in opposition to UPA
policies. In an unusual move indicating its desperation, the
party has stepped up criticism of UPA conduct of the India-US
relationship. On September 14 prominent BJP leaders
including former External Affairs Ministers Yashwant Sinha
and Jaswant Singh attacked PM Singh for "discussing domestic
politics" during his meeting with President Bush. Claiming
that the Prime Minister had singled out former PM Vajpayee
for being "sharply critical" of the recent US-India
agreement, Jaswant Singh emphasized that "all established
conventions, mutual regard and due courtesy demand that
domestic politics not be made a subject of discussion by our
PM when visiting abroad." BJP Vice President Mukhtar Abbas
Naqvi told the press that the party would issue a separate
statement on the Prime Minister's "conduct" of foreign
relations. We expect the BJP to be similarly quick in
jumping on any perceived mishandling of the Indo-Pak
relationship for electoral advantage.

The Party Leadership Conclave
--------------


11. (C) There are several key events that will in the coming
months provide indicators as to where the BJP is headed. One
is the BJP leadership conference now scheduled for September
16-18 in Chennai. Media and political observers are
predicting that swords could be drawn at the meeting. The
Sangh Parivar could use this venue to make its move to unseat
Advani, forcing Vajpayee to play a mediating role to paper
over differences.

Electoral Battlegrounds
--------------


12. (C) The other key indicator is upcoming state elections.
To demonstrate its political viability, the BJP must halt
its electoral tailspin. If it cannot produce victories, its
support could dry up, as the money and politicians move on to
parties with better electoral track records and a better
ability to secure and distribute government patronage. The
upcoming Bihar election could be a key indicator. RJD boss
and Railway Minister Lallu Prasad Yadav is pulling out all
stops to return to power in the state. One of the keystones
of his campaign is an appeal to Bihar Muslims to freeze the
BJP "communalists" out of power. Should the BJP fail to meet
the Lallu onslaught and go down in defeat, it will increase
the party's downward momentum.


13. (SBU) Another key electoral battleground could be UP,
where the government could fall at any time. Although we
doubt the party will move until its position is assured,
Congress activists continue to threaten to use the Governor
to dismiss the UP government and bring on an election. On
September 14, Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav alleged that
Congress is plotting to use a fatal outbreak of Japanese
Encephalitis as an excuse to dismiss his government, while
the UP Congress continues to assert that the state's
deteriorating law and order situation has made it
ungovernable. Should an election be called in UP, the BJP
would not be a serious contender. Press reports quoted a
"senior BJP functionary" in that state as confirming that the
BJP is in "complete disarray" and there is a "total lack of
any united movement."

Comment: Where Do We Go From Here?
--------------


14. (C) Recent BJP turmoil has no doubt weakened the party.
Public airing of internal problems is a dramatic shift in BJP
behavior and points to a power struggle the likes of which
the party has not seen in many years. The BJP downturn has
already prevented it from playing the role of an effective
opposition, allowing the Left Front (LF) to step in to fill
the opposition vacuum. It has also led some in the regional
and left parties to examine the possibility that they could
take advantage of this situation to formulate a "third front"
to grab power (septel).


15. (C) However, despite its deep and persistent problems,
predictions of the BJP's permanent demise are premature. The
long-awaited generational shift in leadership when Advani
resigns, likely before the end of 2005, could still energize
the beleaguered party, and the BJP's several year run of
electoral success demonstrates that there is a current of
Hindu nationalism in Indian society waiting to be tapped.
Also relevant is the Congress Party's ability to avoid the
pattern of corruption, dynastic politics and patronage-based
administration that dragged down earlier governments. The
near term outcome hinges on whether the BJP will choose a
more radical successor, further weakening the party by taking
it away from its the moderate masses, or elect a centrist,
who will follow in Vajpayee's footsteps and strengthen the
party under a "Hindutva Light" agenda with a greater focus on
economic reform, development, and pragmatic administration.
PYATT