ALL EYES ON UNGA SUMMIT AS INDO-PAK TALKS WRAP UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 006520

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV ECON SNAR SCUL PBTS PINR IN PK INDO PAK UNGA
SUBJECT: ALL EYES ON UNGA SUMMIT AS INDO-PAK TALKS WRAP UP

REF: NEW DELHI 1073

Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Round Two of the Indo-Pakistan Composite
Dialogue (CD) is drawing to a close with few concrete
results, although the two sides managed to preserve a sense
of forward movement, which reinforces the broad Indian public
support for rapprochement with Pakistan. To facilitate
dialogue, the PM has formally acknowledged SK Lambah's role
as his back-channel to Musharraf. Selling the Indian public
on the need to be generous with Pakistan will be difficult --
a recent poll indicates that although a plurality (42
percent) of Indians surveyed favor the peace process, an
overwhelming majority (70 percent) say they do not trust
Musharraf himself. Forty-two percent also say that Pakistan
has not done enough to restrict cross-border terrorism, and
72 percent say PM Singh has been too lenient on terror. The
background atmospherics are mixed, with every step forward
(the genuinely friendly launch of a new Track-2 forum for
Indo-Pak parliamentarians) followed by one backward (such as
the uproar here after Pakistan sentenced an accused Indian
spy to hang). Nevertheless, there is a broad consensus in
India that dialogue is the only realistic path. End Summary.

CD Wrapping Up, But Watch UNGA for Real News
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2. (U) Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran will travel to
Islamabad August 31 - September 2 to wrap up the Composite
Dialogue talks with his Pakistani counterpart, Riaz Mohammad
Khan. (Note: Other bilateral issues, including expanding
transportation links, fall under the umbrella of "technical
talks." End Note.) The Foreign Secretaries will review the
progress of the working groups that discussed the following
topics during May-August:

-- Peace and Security, including CBMs

-- Demilitarizing Siachen Glacier

-- The Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project

-- Demarcating the International Boundary at Sir Creek

-- Economic and Commercial Cooperation

-- Promotion of Friendly Exchanges

-- Terrorism and Drug Trafficking (to be held August 29-30)


3. (C) The Foreign Ministers plan to meet on October 4 in
Islamabad, according to the MEA, following PM Singh and
President Musharraf's expected meeting on the margins of the
UNGA in September. New Delhi-based Pakistan watchers, such
as Observer Research Foundation's Wilson John, say that the
UNGA event will be the one to watch. John commented recently
that Musharraf would want to be associated with any
breakthroughs, which was one reason why the CD process seemed
to slow down over the summer.

Lambah's Role Formalized, Streamlined, Invigorated
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4. (U) In a public sign of Indian commitment to dialogue
with Pakistan, the PM's back-channel interlocutor to
Islamabad Satinder Kumar Lambah (Reftel) was appointed a
Special Envoy within the PMO on August 22, holding the rank
of secretary (the senior-most rung of the Indian
bureaucracy). Although Lambah has been acting unofficially
in this capacity for more than six months, this marks the
first public GOI acknowledgment of his position and the
importance of his role. He relinquished his post as Convener
of the National Security Advisory Board to former Foreign
Secretary MK Rasgotra -- a frequent Embassy contact -- before

SIPDIS
the end of his two-year term, which will allow Lambah to
focus more intently on Indo-Pak diplomacy, including the
expected Manmohan-Musharraf meeting.

Indians are Pro-Peace, but Don't Trust Musharraf
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5. (U) The recently published "India Today: Mood of the
Nation Poll," which surveyed a robust 12,000-plus eligible
voters from 19 states in late July-early August, yielded
insights into Indian views of Indo-Pak relations. Although a
42 percent plurality of respondents said the Indo-Pak peace
process has a good chance of succeeding, the same percentage
answered that Pakistan has not done enough to control
cross-border terrorism. A dose of reality, however, is the
whopping 70 percent of respondents who "do not trust
President Musharraf." Moreover, 72 percent say the PM has
not done enough to pressure Pakistan on terrorism.

High-Profile Spy Case Spices Up Diplomatic Stew
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6. (U) After the Pakistani Supreme Court cleared the way for
the execution of an Indian national, Sarabjit Singh, accused
of being a RAW agent, the accused's rural Punjab family
launched a major PR offensive. Photos of the accused's
sister and two daughters graced the front pages of India's
major daily newspapers, along with their protests that "they
have the wrong man" and their threat to commit suicide if he
is executed. The PM stated he would call Musharraf to push
for clemency. As this drama unfolds, the sense we get from
our India-Pakistan watchers is that some swap of spies will
be worked out before the accused faces the hangman, and, more
importantly, before the all-important UNGA meeting of the two
leaders. If this does not happen, and Singh is executed,
that unusual action will distract severely from the goodwill
generated by the past year's spurt in people-to-people
contacts.

Positive Launch of Track-2 Parliamentarians Forum
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7. (U) Adding a positive note to Delhi-Islamabad relations,
respected Mahatma Gandhi disciple Nirmala Deshpande presided
over the launch of the India-Pakistan Parliamentarians Forum
(IPPF) on August 23. The guests of honor included Pakistani
legislators MP Bhandara (PML-Q),Sherry Rehman (PPP),and
Kunwar Khalid Yunus (MQM). Deshpande along with fellow
Indian MP Shahid Siddiqui, presided over a program that
highlighted trade opportunities and the common cultures
between the two peoples, without dwelling excessively on the
usual potholes of Kashmir and terrorism. The room was packed
with pragmatic MPs -- many of whom are businessmen -- and the
bonhomie was evident and genuine. Yunus particularly drew
sympathy from the audience of MPs, journalists, and
diplomats, by expressing his desire to bring together
families divided by Partition; he added that he would soon
visit his own sister, whom he had not seen since 1947.

Indo-Pak Independence Day Celebration "The Biggest Yet"
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8. (C) Former Rajya Sabha member and Track-2 diplomat Kuldip
Nayyar reported to us that this year's Independence Day
celebration at the Wagah border -- the only active border
crossing between India and Pakistan -- was "the biggest yet."
Nayyar years ago had inaugurated the annual candlelight
vigil for peace with a handful of fellow legislators; it has
since grown to a massive event attended by thousands on both
sides of the border, including politicians and celebrities.
The ebullient Nayyar, who was decidedly upbeat over the
changes he was witnessed in Indo-Pak relations in recent
years, telling us it was "the most enthusiastic crowd ever."

Comment: Focus is on UNGA and Musharraf
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9. (C) The positive Indo-Pak headline-grabbers over the past
year, particularly the cross-LoC bus and agreement to a
face-saving solution to the Baglihar Dam impasse, have taken
place outside the CD framework (which is dominated by the two
largely implacable bureaucracies),demonstrating the
continued need for high-level political muscle to ensure that
deliverables get delivered. The next such opportunity will
be at UNGA. Despite the Bollywood-style press coverage
Musharraf enjoyed during his April visit to Delhi, an
overwhelming majority of Indians still do not trust him,
particularly after the spike in terrorist attacks and threats
this summer. This widespread skepticism about Musharraf will
require an extra sales effort to overcome should the PMO
decide to make any special concessions to Islamabad. Absent
a publicly accepted crack-down on cross-border terrorism from
Pakistan, the government may be vulnerable to fresh criticism
from the BJP and security hawks, but its dedication to
dialogue remains firm. As the Parliamentarians seem to
understand, advancing the Indo-Pak peace process still
attracts political rewards from a population that largely
wants normal relations with its neighbors. End Comment.

Visit the Embassy New Delhi classified
website:http://www.state.sgov/p/sa/newdelhi.
MULFORD