TERROR REVISITS ASSAM PRIOR TO INDEPENDENCE DAY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006222

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2015
TAGS: PTER PGOV IN
SUBJECT: TERROR REVISITS ASSAM PRIOR TO INDEPENDENCE DAY

REF: A. NEW DELHI 6032

B. CALCUTTA 246

C. CALCUTTA 215

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Indian CT experts believe the recent spate
of terrorist bombings in Assam by the United Liberation Front
of Assam (ULFA) is "absolutely routine" and part of an annual
uptick prior to India's August 15 Independence Day. The
intended lethality of some recent attacks is markedly higher
than usual, and may represent either attacks by different
groups or a significant change in ULFA's tactics. Other
groups in the region are also adding their own attacks to the
mix, which will increase the casualties and mayhem over the
next week. However, Indian observers predict the violence
will abate after August 15, without impacting the GOI's
policies to any significant degree. End Summary.

Independence Day Terror Upsurge in Assam
--------------


2. (C) India's August 15 Independence Day is a focal point
for terrorist attacks, and the United Liberation Front of
Assam (Ref B),which we added this year to the Other Select
Terrorist Organizations list (Ref C),is no exception. In
the week before Independence Day 2004, five separate bomb
attacks in Assam credited to ULFA left almost 20 dead and as
many injured. This year, there have been over 15 terrorist
"incidents" since August 6, including several that police
averted. Our CT contacts do not expect the tempo to let up
until after August 15. Assam Police Special Branch Chief
Khagen Sharma told Consulate Calcutta the bombings were
numerous but not "major," due to the low number of
casualties.

ULFA Conducting Business as Usual
--------------


3. (C) Assam police blame the majority of recent attacks on
ULFA. The infrastructure targets -- a gas pipeline, two
bridges, and at least four electrical power installations --
are typical for the group. The bridges, according to a
senior Assam police officer, were "vital" for moving Army
units in the state.


4. (C) New Delhi-based terrorism expert Ajai Sahni called
the current state of play in India's Northeast "absolutely
routine." ULFA particularly seeks popular attention this
time each year, he told us, and terrorists in India broadly
seem to consider strings of attacks to be "good tactics" in
getting the GOI to the bargaining table or in gaining
leverage while at the table. "Until a peace deal is inked or
their capabilities are compromised, there will be no radical
change in their activities," Sahni added, although there is
no indication that this round of terrorism will advance any
of the groups' underlying separatist agendas or pressure the
GOI politically.

Lethal Attacks May Not be ULFA
--------------


5. (C) ULFA does not often claim credit for its attacks, but
it did specifically deny carrying out a marketplace bombing
that injured four people, the only recent attack that caused
casualties. Noting ULFA's focus on infrastructure targets,
Sahni told us ULFA has killed civilians before and is not
averse to doing so again. However, the Assam Police Deputy
Inspector General (Security) pointed out that ULFA lost
prized popular support when it killed civilians in the past,
and explained the ULFA terrorists want "publicity and mileage
without losing popularity." The Assam DIG speculated that a
"Muslim hand," (Ref A) and not/not ULFA, was behind the
marketplace attack, although one of Consulate/Calcutta's CT
contacts claimed Leftist terrorists have been joining ULFA
recently and may have influenced the group to move away from
their usual modus operandi. Also, Assam Special Branch Chief
Sharma said a bomb police defused on August 9 would have
caused mass casualties if it had detonated, a development
inconsistent with ULFA,s targeting practices, he commented.


6. (C) The upsurge in ULFA attacks in the run-up to
Independence Day may spur on other terrorist groups. In what
appears to be an entirely non-ULFA incident, the
comparatively smaller Karbi Longri North Cachar Hills
Liberation Front -- which advocates a homeland for ethnic
Karbis -- shot and killed a truck driver in a barrage of
gunfire on August 8 in Assam. Other Northeast terrorist
groups, including the All Tripura Tiger Force, have announced
they will also commit pre-Independence Day attacks.

Independence Day Boycott "Shall be Observed"
--------------


7. (U) Four terrorist groups -- ULFA, the Manipur People's
Liberation Front (both banned under India's 2004 Unlawful
Activities Prevention Act),the Kamatapur Liberation
Organization, and the Tripura People's Democratic Front -- on
August 10 announced that a general strike "shall be observed"
on August 15 in the states of Assam, Manipur, and Tripura, to
protest "India's colonial occupation" of these states. These
strikes are usually enforced through violence. (Comment: It
is generally known that there are close ideological and
supply linkages among many Northeast terrorists groups, and
this joint action is not novel. End Comment.)

Comment: It Will be a Long Week
--------------


8. (C) Like bad weather, our Indian contacts seem to regard
terrorism in the Northeast as something that can neither be
avoided nor mitigated, and is of no practical consequence to
those who live outside the affected area. It is the
generally viewed as being of tertiary importance after Jihadi
and Naxalite terrorism, causing less pain and destruction
(further away from Delhi) than either, therefore easier to
endure and ignore. Assam's capital, Guwahati, is about as
physically far from Delhi as is Dushanbe.
BLAKE