Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI5755
2005-07-26 13:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

JASWANT IN THE WILDERNESS

Tags:  PREL KNNP EINV PGOV IN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 005755 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015
TAGS: PREL KNNP EINV PGOV IN
SUBJECT: JASWANT IN THE WILDERNESS

Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 005755

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015
TAGS: PREL KNNP EINV PGOV IN
SUBJECT: JASWANT IN THE WILDERNESS

Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: A deeply embittered Jaswant Singh shared with
us a scathing assessment of the Congress government, calling
Manmohan Singh unfit to govern India and warning that the
contradictions inherent in the UPA coalition made meaningful
reform impossible. Jaswant disassociated himself from the
BJP's public criticism of the Congress promise to separate
civilian and military nuclear facilities, arguing instead
that the more troubling aspect of the US-India Joint
Statement was the GOI's announced commitment to adhere to the
MTCR and support a fissile material cutoff. Echoing language
from a BJP resolution released on July 23, Jaswant attacked
the proposed opening of India's retail sector, claiming that
the economic merits would be swamped by the political costs
of challenging India's trader class. Jaswant predicted that
BJP President Advani would eventually prevail in the party's
ongoing leadership tussle, arguing that the current churn was
something that other Indian parties would benefit from. End
Summary.


2. (C) Parliamentary opposition leader Jaswant Singh was in
an unusually dark mood when the Charge called on him July 25.
Jaswant was skeptical that the Congress government would
accomplish anything of substance during the upcoming session
of Parliament, suggesting that the contradictions embedded in
the UPA alliance made meaningful governance impossible. "The
government is not in a position to state its plans," Jaswant
continued, "because they are unsure what they can and cannot
do." The former Finance Minister criticized Manmohan Singh
as a "civil servant who accident has brought here," claiming
that the Prime Minister lacks the strength of character to
govern effectively. "My countrymen," he continued, "have no
place for people with weak leadership." Referring to
Congress as "that Italian party," Jaswant claimed that
Congress took power with a mere seven seat majority, stating
that "the PM has not the authority to rule India."

Opposition to Retail Opening
--------------


3. (C) Jaswant also criticized the PM's economic management,

assailing the proposal to open the retail sector to foreign
investment as "badly timed and badly announced." He argued
that small shop holders were a backbone of Indian society,
and implied that opening to foreign giants like Wal-Mart
would be politically suicidal. When the Charge pointed to
evidence showing that Indian malls had not had an adverse
impact on small retailers, Jaswant responded "this is not an
academic discussion," suggesting that the debate will hinge
on local political calculations. Jaswant expressed
satisfaction at the resolution of the Dabhol investment
dispute, noting that negotiations began under his
stewardship. He warned, however, that the BJP's position on
issues of privatization would be colored by its status now in
the opposition. He also assailed the UPA's failure to pursue
more aggressively the BJP-initiated road building program,
claiming that Congress had abandoned infrastructure projects
simply because they were associated with the previous
government.

Moderate on US-India
--------------


4. (C) Responding to the Charge's point that the BJP can take
some of the credit for the improving state of US-India
relations, Jaswant agreed that the PM's Washington visit
constituted a step forward. However, he cautioned that "it
would be easier on both sides if there was not so much
hoopla," especially in the English press. He observed that
many in India harbor deep suspicions of the US
non-proliferation lobby. Having dealt with US-India
relations for four and a half years, Jaswant continued, "I
know how easy it is for a politician to be charged with
turning the US into a 51st state" (implying that the BJP
might also use this tactic).

5. (C) Jaswant confirmed that Manmohan Singh had briefed him,
Vajpayee and Advani on the direction of US-India negotiations
before departing for Washington. However, Jaswant added,
that interaction impressed upon him that the PM has no one at
the political level of his team who is knowledgeable on
issues of national security and nuclear strategy. "It is a
discipline so complex that I don't see how they can handle it
in Parliament," the former Foreign Minister remarked.
Distancing himself from Brajesh Mishra's public line, Jaswant
suggested that the proposal for segregation of India's
civilian and military nuclear facilities could be "easily
handled." More troubling, he suggested, was the Joint
Statement commitment to adhere to MTCR and to support the
FMCT negotiations. "I wouldn't have been in such a hurry,"
Jaswant continued, "I would have explained to my countrymen,
this is the direction I'm heading."

Future of the BJP
--------------


6. (C) Concluding on domestic issues, Jaswant argued that
traditional Indian politicians like VP Singh represent the
worst traditions of rent-seeking, colonial era India. He
expressed skepticism about the democratic credentials of both
the Communists and Congress, arguing that the BJP's recent
"churning" has been good for party democracy. Jaswant was
pleased that Advani's leadership had been reaffirmed and was
confident that Advani was in it for the long haul. "I'm
sorry to disappoint you," the opposition leader joked, "but
the BJP is not dying."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Jaswant's bitterness was out of character, and
provides a window into the deep crisis that the BJP
leadership is currently experiencing. His criticism of the
July 18 announcements is fueled at least partially by
frustration that these breakthrough US-India understandings
could not be achieved on the BJP's watch. To some degree,
Jaswant's long public association with the US-India
relationship limits his ability to attack the UPA's foreign
policy in public. As one official pointed out, any time
Jaswant tries to debate the US-India relationship, Congress
pulls out Strobe Talbott's memoirs to demonstrate that
Jaswant as Foreign Minister had pursued similar goals. His
criticism of Manmohan Singh's leadership style is also out of
step with what we hear from others in Delhi, but here too
Jaswant's personal attack on a Rajya Sabha colleague gives a
sense of how bitter the partisan divide in Delhi has become.
BLAKE