Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI5685
2005-07-22 13:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

MONSOON SESSION OF PARLIAMENT LIKELY TO BE LESS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KNNP IN 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005685 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KNNP IN
SUBJECT: MONSOON SESSION OF PARLIAMENT LIKELY TO BE LESS
RAUCOUS, LESS PRODUCTIVE, WITH LEFT LEADING THE OPPOSITION

Classified By: polcouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005685

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KNNP IN
SUBJECT: MONSOON SESSION OF PARLIAMENT LIKELY TO BE LESS
RAUCOUS, LESS PRODUCTIVE, WITH LEFT LEADING THE OPPOSITION

Classified By: polcouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Although it leads the opposition, the BJP
is in disarray and largely incapable of playing a strong role
in the upcoming Parliamentary session scheduled for July
25-August 26. The Left Front (LF) is determined to fill the
vacuum and will act more like an opposition party than an
ally of the UPA. The recently-concluded visit by PM Manmohan
Singh to Washington will provide the LF with plenty of
ammunition and could liven up what would otherwise be a
lackluster session, with debate focusing much more on foreign
affairs than is normally the case. The Communists are
increasingly angry at what they view as "undemocratic"
behavior by Congress and particularly PM Manmohan Singh, and
are set to argue that the UPA government deserves to be
flayed for failure to brief the LF, the non-Congress UPA
parties and Parliament on the US-India nuclear understanding
before the PM departed for Washington. If the LF performs
well on the floor of Parliament, it could give Congress
reason to move more cautiously in implementing its side of
the US/Indian agenda even as the UPA government eventually
prevails. End Summary

Monsoon Session Soon Underway
--------------


2. (C) India's Parliament will convene July 25 and conclude
its "Monsoon Session" on August 26. The UPA government has
been intensely focused on the Prime Minister's just-concluded
trip to Washington and has given little indication as to what
major initiatives it intends to pursue during the session.
The opposition BJP and UPA allies on the left both plan to
use the session to attack the UPA.

With the Left Leading the Charge
--------------


3. (U) The Left Front (LF) leadership will meet in New Delhi
on July 25 to map out its strategy. The July 21 statement of
the politburos of the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the
Communist Party of India (Marxist) indicated how the two
parties would attempt to shape parliamentary debate. The
statement criticized the UPA for "undemocratic practices" by
entering into major agreements with the US during the PM's

Washington visit without "adequate discussions" with the
Left, UPA partners or Parliament.


4. (U) Characterizing the Joint Statement signed in
Washington as "a universal reversal of India's earlier
nuclear policy," the CPI secretariat noted that the UPA made
the agreement without any Parliamentary discussion, "whereas
the US would have to seek agreement from its Congress." The
communists further accused the UPA of "not taking the nation
into confidence before entering into an understanding with
the US on matters of vital national interest." The CPI
pledged that it "cannot accept such arbitrary functioning by
the UPA government," and pledged that it would "register its
principled opposition to this joint statement and related
agreements inside Parliament."


5. (C) On July 22, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) head
Abani Roy told us that there is growing anger within the Left
ranks at Congress, and that it is particularly focused on PM
Singh. Roy maintained that the Prime Minister views the LF
with undisguised hostility and is deliberately cutting it out
of policy making. Roy hinted that Singh's behavior would be a
principal focus of the July 25 meeting, and that Left anger
would spill over onto the floor of Parliament (Post will
address Left developments Septel).

And the BJP Opposition Playing Second Fiddle
--------------


6. (U) Parliamentary Speaker Somnath Chatterjee hosted the
BJP leadership including former PM Vajpayee, Party President
LK Advani and VK Malhotra, on July 20. The BJP assured
Chatterjee that the party would not "boycott" the session as
it is intent on raising a number of issues, including the
Supreme Court repeal of the Illegal Migrants Act, recent
terrorist attacks in Ayodhya and Kashmir, and "the Prime
Minister's praise for British imperialism" while at Oxford.
The BJP leaders reminded the Speaker that they were the
leading opposition party and requested that "the left parties
not be accommodated in the Opposition space."


7. (U) Party Leader Pramod Mahajan claimed on July 21 that
the BJP would cause "turmoil" in Parliament over the UPA's
recent decision to begin dismantling the Illegal Migrants
Act. The BJP had long supported the Act as a means of
identifying and expelling illegal Bangladeshi (Muslim)
immigrants from Assam. Mahajan accused the UPA of conspiring
to "appease the illegal migrants who have over the years
emerged as the captive votebank of the Congress."

US/India Relations Could Be at Center Stage
--------------


8. (U) In a July 21 Editorial in the "Hindu" columnist
Harish Khare predicts that US/India relations could dominate
what would otherwise be a lackluster session of Parliament.
Khare agreed with the left parties that the UPA engineered a
dramatic realignment in the bilateral relationship and that
"domestic opinion has not been prepared for it." He
questions "whether India has committed itself to a political
relationship closer than warranted by domestic public
opinion," since "the national sentiment remains strangely
reluctant to trust the US to wish this country well in the
long run...and give the US the benefit of the doubt." He
argued that "no political leader can afford to overlook this
simple fact."


9. (U) Khare pointed out that it would be a "mistake" to
think that having the "strategic community" on board
represented national acquiescence, in that it numbers no more
"than one hundred individuals." He predicts that MP's from
across the spectrum will accuse the UPA of failure to take
the Indian population into confidence before the PM's trip
and try to compel the GOI to "explain the meaning, the cost,
and the obligations of all the commitments made by both sides
in Washington." Khare opined that a lively Parliamentary
debate could provide elements within Congress to "invoke
domestic public opinion to slow down Washington's demands."

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The BJP remains in complete disarray, as infighting
between the RSS and moderates continues unabated (septel).
This all but ensures that the party will be more quiescent
during this session than it was previously, when it staged
spectacular walkouts and disruptions. With Advani immersed
in a leadership struggle with the RSS, Vajpayee is now the
closest thing to a BJP icon. His July 20 statement
criticizing the US/India nuclear energy framework will
encourage other BJP MP's to make similar remarks during the
Parliament session. However, the LF will likely predominate
and launch a calculated attack on various aspects of the PM's
Washington trip, criticizing Congress for growing too close
to the US and becoming increasingly "undemocratic." With the
BJP fading to the margins, the LF is behaving more and more
like the opposition in Parliament. Although we expect the PM
eventually to prevail, the next few weeks promise to bring
unusual attention to the GOI's US agenda.
BLAKE