DELHI WORRIED ABOUT SPIKE IN TERRORISM, THREATS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 NEW DELHI 005382

SIPDIS

STATE FOR S/CT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015
TAGS: PTER PGOV PREL SCUL ASEC IN PK
SUBJECT: DELHI WORRIED ABOUT SPIKE IN TERRORISM, THREATS,
AND CHATTER FROM PAKISTAN

REF: A. NEW DELHI 5226

B. CHENNAI 1582

C. NEW DELHI 5165

D. NEW DELHI 4689

E. NEW DELHI 4449

Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Indian concerns over possible spectacular
terrorist incidents are escalating, based on the recent
London and Ayodhya attacks, widespread speculation on what
high-profile target might be next, and a significant uptick
in terrorism reporting in the Indian media, most of which
points to Pakistan. Although we are not aware of any
specific credible evidence pointing to a pending terror
attack in New Delhi, there is a palpable feeling here that
India may face more attacks of terrorism, coupled with
frustration over cross-border terrorism activity in Pakistan.
Reported infiltration numbers are rising dramatically -- the
Indian Army on July 12 intercepted the largest group of
infiltrators it has seen since the start of Indo-Pak
rapprochement -- and terrorists are exploiting multiple
routes to enter India. Recent media reports claim that the
number of attacks in Delhi is above last year's and predicted
to rise, although the number of successful attacks nationally
is within normal parameters, according to Indian terrorism
experts. The London subway bombings followed by days the
opening of a large Metro station located in the heart of
Delhi's commercial area, and has been the focus of inevitable
speculation that terrorists will attack it. Indians also
complain that accused Bombay bomber Dawood Ibrahim is openly
arranging his daughter's Dubai wedding from Pakistan --
underlining the point that the Pakistani establishment
continues to use terror as an instrument of state policy.
End Summary.

India On Alert
--------------


2. (C) In the wake of the London subway bombings, the
Ayodhya temple attack, and other recent terrorist incidents,
the GOI is publicly calling on its police and paramilitary
forces to bolster security on a nation-wide basis. Home
Minister Shivraj Patil on July 12 chaired a senior-level
security review that brought together NSA MK Narayanan, RAW
chief PK Tharakan, Intelligence Bureau chief ESL Narasimhan,
the directors general for military operations and military
intelligence, and the heads of India's paramilitary forces.
Consulate Mumbai reports that police no longer permit
vehicles to park near the city's two major temple complexes.
The Hanuman Temple in Central Delhi is also under heavier
guard.

Infiltration On the Rise
--------------


3. (C) GOI Interlocutor on Kashmir NN Vohra on July 12 told
us "several thousand" terrorists are planning to cross from
Pakistan into India using a variety of routes, including J&K,
Punjab, Rajasthan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, according to Indian
intercepts of terrorist communications. Vohra asserted that
"90% of major terrorist incidents are tied to events" such as
the PM's trip and the Kashmiri separatists' June visit to
Pakistan (Ref D). Also on July 12, Indian troops in J&K
reportedly engaged some 35 terrorists as they tried to
infiltrate across the LoC, the largest such encounter since
the start of Indo-Pak rapprochement. Against this backdrop,
Foreign Minister Natwar Singh has been reiterating his
"offer" to provide Pakistan PM Shaukat Aziz with
"photographic evidence" of terrorist camps (Ref C). An RSO
contact told us that several Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) cells
that entered India in March remain at large; he predicted
they would hit soft targets some time this summer.

Terrorism Metrics Yield Complex and Ominous Picture
-------------- --------------


4. (C) New Delhi-based terrorism expert Ajai Sahni told
Poloff that the recent spate of attacks does not represent a
national uptick in terrorist violence, but added that he
would not be surprised if attacks continue to the point of
being statistically significant. "We always have a few major
attacks outside J&K every year. Bearing that in mind, the
situation so far remains consistent with the trend since
2000," Sahni explained. According to his research, this
trend is independent of the state of Indo-Pak relations,
although he contended that "strategically, Islamabad is
calling all the shots, in Punjab, in the Northeast,
throughout the country ... and nothing will change it until
Musharraf makes a strategic shift in Pakistani support for
terrorism." Sahni said that better security in J&K over the
past year may be pushing terrorists into other regions that
are "easier to operate in," which could produce a spike in
attacks outside J&K.


5. (U) Much of this terrorism is indigenous. For example,
in the last week alone:

-- Five Andhra Pradesh state ministers resigned, reportedly
because of threats from the Communist Party of India
(Maoist),i.e. Naxalites (Ref B).

-- Naxals in West Bengal shot dead three senior Communist
Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) members, and killed one
police officer and injured 16 more in a separate bomb attack.

-- Naga rebels torched at least 17 government buildings in
Manipur.


6. (C) Terrorist activity in New Delhi itself has spiked
over last year, according to published reports. The May 22
cinema bombings by Babar Khalsa International (BKI)
terrorists were the first spectacular attacks in Delhi in
three years (Ref E). Police report that 40 terrorists have
been arrested or killed in Delhi in the first half of 2005,
compared with seven in 2004, although it is commonly held
that some of these "encounters" are staged. Reportedly
hundreds of police raids have failed to produce LeT's head of
operations for northern India.

London Bombings Put Delhi Metro on Notice
--------------


7. (C) The London transit system terrorist bombings have
focused New Delhi's attention on its own expanding subway;
however, Delhi was ramping up security even before the London
attacks. RSO police contacts confirmed that the Metro is on
its highest alert level, and a former Indian Police Service
officer told Poloff that Metro officials believe a station
may be attacked in the next few weeks.


8. (U) Metro officials publicly reiterated the subway
system's safety features after opening Connaught Place
Station, a huge venue located in a busy shopping and
commercial area. They reported that employees are trained in
fire safety, and emergency protocols include a modern fire
suppression system and high-speed reversible-flow fans to
rapidly expel smoke. The Metro is staffed by a mix of 550
private guards, Delhi Police, and Central Reserve Police
Force units. (NOTE: CRPF troops successfully repelled the
July 5 Ayodhya attack. End Note.) Their numbers are
doubling with the addition of two companies of Delhi Armed
Police, extra female security officers, and bomb-detection
dogs, and the Home Ministry recently created a task force to
conduct a top-to-bottom security review of the Metro network.
However, "Times of India" and "Hindustan Times" reporters
recently published "sting" articles on security lapses at
Metro and commuter rail stations, including police not
frisking passengers who set off metal detectors.

Forensics Improve, Plots Disrupted, But Convictions Lag
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Indian security agencies are able to track down
terrorists after an attack more quickly than they could
before. NDTV Security Correspondent Col. (ret.) Ajai Shukla
pointed to the analysis of mobile telephone calls that helped
both the Delhi and Uttar Pradesh police identify suspects
quickly in the cinema and Ayodhya attacks. One national
intelligence unit tasked to counter Islamic terrorist cells
outside J&K reports that it has disrupted on average one
group per week for the past seven years (cell size not
specified). For the first half of 2005, they report having
"identified and neutralized" suspected terrorists in Delhi,
West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Mumbai, Bihar, Meghalaya, and
Rajasthan.


10. (U) Other security agencies are also showing increased
success in disrupting planned terrorist attacks and supply
chains. For example, Delhi police said they foiled a July 2
attempt by four suspected terrorists to attack Palam Air
Force Station. The men were arrested with a hand grenade,
firearms, a map of the air base, and over USD 1,000 in
counterfeit currency. Separately, a suspended J&K police
officer in mid-June reportedly sent 40 wireless sets,
antennae of various frequencies, and a Thuraya satellite
phone from Jeddah to Indira Gandhi International Airport in
Delhi. This consignment, which was concealed in a package of
carpets, was seized by Customs officers at the airport along
with an accomplice on June 15. Delhi Police Commissioner
Paul said that the equipment was probably bound for
terrorists operating in Kashmir.


11. (C) Despite these successes, many police officers still
fail to gather sufficient credible evidence to secure
convictions. "Some of the Babar Khalsa guys will walk, many
of the LeT cadres do, because the police botch the evidence.
The worst thing would be if Pakistan gave us those 20 Most
Wanted that the BJP government wanted a few years ago; even
Dawood Ibrahim would probably walk free," Ajai Sahni told
Poloff. In the Kulvir Barapind case, the evidence against an
alleged Khalistani terrorist currently in US custody is so
weak that it is based on unsigned translated depositions that
witnesses later recanted.

Babar Khalsa Reactivated by Pakistan?
--------------


12. (C) The BKI terrorists who were arrested for the May 22
cinema bombings fingered their accomplices, and arrests are
mounting. A Delhi Police Special Cell unit on July 5
captured three suspected BKI weapons suppliers in Jammu,
reportedly based on information provided by one of the cinema
bombers. They arrested the traffickers after they had
received 2.5 kg of RDX and ten detonators. Several suspected
BKI suicide bombers have also been captured by police in June
and early July. However, because the group has already
augmented its numbers with "hired muscle" and may retain
stockpiles of arms and explosives from years of inactivity,
it is difficult to assess their numbers and capabilities,
according to Sahni. Indian intelligence believes that
Islamabad is "reactivating" Khalistan-oriented terrorist with
"fresh infusions" of money and arms, according to
well-connected "Times of India" Foreign Affairs correspondent
Indrani Bagchi, but Sahni and our Punjab contacts agree that
Indian Sikhs are no longer sympathetic toward
Khalistan-inspired political violence.

Ayodhya Investigation Progressing, Security Gaps Remain
-------------- --------------


13. (C) Indian security officials are keeping a close hold
on the progress of the Ayodhya investigation, but law
enforcement sources are saying off the record that:

-- Police have arrested several former Students Islamic
Movement of India (SIMI) members from Faizabad, six km from
Ayodhya, in connection with the attack.

-- Investigators reportedly traced some of the terrorists'
50-plus cell phone calls made on the day of the attack to
public phones in New Delhi.

-- A person who is said to have web-chatted with one of the
terrorists is being questioned by police.


14. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Nepal) Ranjit Rae told PolCouns
that New Delhi was closely tracking the nexus between
terrorism in India and Nepal's open border. He said New
Delhi has increased scrutiny of Kathmandu after the 2000
IC-814 hijacking and expressed concern about ISI activities
in the Terai region, including explosives smuggling and
counterfeiting. He added that Nepal's connection to the
Ayodhya attack remains under investigation.

Police: Terror Chatter Foreshadows "Something Big"
-------------- --------------


15. (C) Despite widespread media reporting that the BKI
bombers were located by tracing their cell phone activity,
the "Times of India" on July 6 reported that LeT "chatter" in
the weeks preceding the Ayodhya attack seemed to indicate
that cells in India were being egged on to attack "something
big." Former RAW Additional Secretary B Raman recently
speculated that al-Qa'ida affiliated jihadi web sites
(presumably LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammad) "have seen chatter
critical of India's close relations with the US" and may spur
on terrorist attacks, although he mentioned no specific
information in this regard.

Peace Process to Continue: London the New Threshold
-------------- --------------


16. (U) Maintaining the measured tone that the PM set
immediately after Ayodhya (Ref A),Home Minister Patil on
July 10 announced that the GOI would not allow that attack to
derail Indo-Pak rapprochement. Patil was in Srinagar at the
time, surveying security arrangements for the annual Armanath
pilgrimage, which is usually a terrorist target. Foreign
Minister Natwar Singh the next day said that New Delhi would
continue talks with Islamabad "unless there is a terrorist
attack like the one witnessed in London," a higher threshold
than the one set by the PM immediately after the attack.

Celebrity Terrorist Wedding
--------------


17. (C) Specially Designated Global Terrorist Dawood
Ibrahim, in addition to being on the BJP's "List of 20"
wanted terrorists, is the father of the bride in this
summer's most anticipated South Asia wedding, speculated to
take place either in Mecca or Dubai. Ibrahim's daughter is
to wed the son of Pakistani cricketer Javed Miandad in an
upcoming ceremony that has captured front-page news coverage.
Indian commentators have predicted that Ibrahim may attend
the high-profile wedding in a burkah to elude Indian law
enforcement. News of the wedding has resurrected stories of
the 1993 Mumbai bombings and his connections to LeT, stirring
Indian anguish about Dawood's alleged protected status in
Pakistan. Former Principal Secretary Naresh Chandra recently
cited this to us as one of several factors contributing to
deepening GOI frustration about Pakistan's support for
terrorism and Washington's perceived willingness to excuse
these activities.

Future Targets
--------------


18. (C) If the goal of terrorists operating in northern
India is to try to inflame existing societal faultlines,
future targets would likely include other religious sites.
For example, the Armanath pilgrimage in J&K, now in progress,
attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors each year. A 2002
attack on pilgrims left eight dead and over 30 injured.
Security around other religious sites has reportedly been
tightened, however, and the Ayodhya attack failed to spark
any communal backlash. A similar target in the realm of
politics could be BJP or RSS headquarters; an attack there
could exacerbate the current political backbiting between the
Government and the Opposition over the Ayodhya attack and
other security issues.


19. (C) Former Home Secretary Vohra told us recently that,
based on GOI data, likely targets include the Indian Military
Academy at Dehra Dun (which was targeted by an LeT cell that
police intercepted in March) as well as J&K Chief Minister
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed and his daughter, PDP President
Mehbooba Mufti. "Hindustan Times" terrorism journalist
Rajnish Sharma reported that several key economic and
infrastructure sites are also under high alert. These
include the Bhabha Atomic Research Center (BARC) and other
nuclear sites, petroleum refineries, and stock exchanges.
The Archeological Survey of India, which is responsible for
heritage sites, recently noted that security was deficient at
the Red Fort (which terrorists attacked in December 2000 and
a frequent site of terrorist threats) and the Qutab Minar,


20. (C) Sahni lamented that, because "literally tons of
materiel are pre-positioned throughout the country, terrorist
cells can attack a target of opportunity within fairly broad
parameters" despite police having seized hundreds of pounds
of explosives and firearms in a series of raids against
terrorist cells across northern India in recent weeks. For
example, the BKI cell probably chose the movie theaters to
take advantage of the controversy surrounding the film
showing there. Ayodhya "was probably one of several
religious targets that particular group could choose from."
The interesting thing to note, Sahni added, was the target
selection and modus operandi in both these attacks emphasized
symbolism and exploiting political divisiveness over causing
mass casualties. He would not speculate that the groups were
actively trying to minimize fatalities, only that it was not
their primary goal.

Comment: Bracing for the PM's Visit
--------------


21. (C) Whether by design or chance, the terrorist team that
attacked Ayodhya did so on the eve of the PM's trip to the
G-8 Summit. LeT and other terrorist groups will view the
PM's July 17 trip to Washington as the prime symbol of the
growing Indo-US relationship. Although there have been no
reported specific terror alerts in New Delhi, the White House
meeting will provide a tempting opportunity for a spectacular
attack and a symbolic connection that could politically
outweigh Ayodhya. Delhiites who recently celebrated the
opening of a new Metro station at Connaught Place cannot help
but wonder if terrorists are eyeing it, or other parts of
their city, as a future target. Concern appears highest in
the capital, but potential targets exist throughout the
country, and this is combining with new reports of terrorist
training facilities in Pakistan -- and evidence of renewed
infiltration -- to provoke mounting frustration about
Musharraf's perceived unwillingness to make good on his
repeated promises to end all terrorism against India.
Mission India EACs will remain alert to any new threats and
be prepared to respond quickly.
BLAKE