RSS FLEXES POLITICAL MUSCLES, DEMANDS ADVANI'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 005320

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: RSS FLEXES POLITICAL MUSCLES, DEMANDS ADVANI'S
REMOVAL

REF: A. NEW DELHI 4315

B. NEW DELHI 4232

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The right-wing Hindutva Rashtriya
Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) asserted its political dominance of
the BJP on July 8, calling for the removal of LK Advani from
his party leadership positions, including the presidency and
head of the parliamentary delegation. Pundits expect the
move to succeed, resulting in greater RSS control of the BJP
and a shift towards an even more radical Hindutva agenda.
None of Advani's likely successors have his national
credibility. RSS domination of the BJP would further
alienate Indian voters, and continue the party's downward
slide. Continued BJP infighting benefits Congress, as PM
Manmohan Singh builds his credentials as a respected domestic
politician and an international statesman. Congress sees an
opening to go after BJP governments in the Hindi heartland
and eventually win an insurmountable parliamentary majority.
End Summary.

The RSS Attacks its Own
--------------


2. (C) On July 8, the RSS demanded that the BJP remove LK
Advani, himself an RSS member, from his post as party
President following his controversial remarks in June
(Reftel) characterizing Muhammad Ali Jinnah as a secularist.
RSS spokesman Ram Madhav told us on June 9 that the RSS
leadership is furious at Advani and is looking for
"systematic changes to ensure that the RSS core ideology is
not diluted." Veteran BJP leader JP Mathur commented to us
on June 11 that Advani's future "does not look bright" and
that the RSS would most likely succeed in removing him from
the presidency. He added that the RSS might wait until after
the October-November state elections in Bihar to sack Advani,
but would not relent on its removal demand. Mathur suggested
that the RSS is backing Murli Manohar Joshi, whose
ideological purity is more certain, to take over from Advani
until someone from the next generation of leaders is ready
for the job.


3. (C) In a comment clearly aimed at Advani, state-level RSS
chiefs, meeting in Surat on July 9, expressed concern over
"ideological erosion" in the BJP. The RSS statement was a
rare public attack on the man long considered to be in league
with the RSS and the party's right wing. This atypical
airing of internal BJP issues indicates the seriousness of
the struggle between moderate and right-wing elements of the
party, and the determination of the RSS to impose its will.


4. (C) The RSS and BJP will continue negotiations to
engineer a compromise that will allow Advani to stay on, but
political insiders expect that he will not last long. RSS
hard-liners have laid the groundwork for a rightward shift by
removing the moderate liaisons between the RSS and BJP, and
installing a hard-liner who has repeatedly called for
Advani's resignation.

Comment: Hindutva, Even if it Kills Us
--------------


5. (C) The RSS move signals that the battle between the right
wing and moderate constituencies of the BJP has come to a
head. The RSS and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) are determined
to control the party and take it down a more fundamentalist
path. If they succeed, that will further splinter the NDA
coalition and hasten the BJP's decline as a force in Indian
national politics. Congress is delighted by this turn of
events, as the BJP leadership appears increasingly out of
step with the moderate middle ground that the majority of
Indians support in the wake of the Ayodhya attack. The BJP's
decline has spurred Congress insiders to begun debating the
possibility of unseating BJP governments in the Hindi
heartland and eventually calling a new national election to
secure a strong UPA majority in Parliament, free of reliance
on the left. Advani, ironically, tried to shift the BJP
toward the middle and possibly electoral success, but the RSS
and VHP clearly care more for ideological purity, no matter
the cost.
BLAKE