PM: SPIKE IN TERRORISM COULD THREATEN INDO-PAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005226

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2015
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: PM: SPIKE IN TERRORISM COULD THREATEN INDO-PAK
RAPPROCHEMENT

REF: A. NEW DELHI 5165


B. NEW DELHI 4915

C. NEW DELHI 4689

Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: In addition to the July 6 attack in Ayodhya,
senior J&K politicians and civilian officials are
increasingly under terrorist attack, and a long string of
bombings in Kashmir is growing more lethal. The recent
incidents in J&K, coupled with the Ayodhya attack (Ref A),
led to PM Singh's most pointed public comments on Pakistani
support for cross-border terrorism since he took office,
including his warning that continued attacks could jeopardize
the peace process. Observers commented that a disruption in
Indo-Pak ties is exactly what the terrorists desire. GOI
infiltration estimates show 2005 levels still below those for
2004, but the summer months are predictably leading to a
spike in those numbers as well. Delhi-based analysts have
begun to speculate that Islamabad may be pulling the strings
to remind India that it maintains a robust capability to
direct terrorist attacks if progress wanes on Kashmir. End
Summary.

PM Warns Islamabad
--------------


2. (C) Whether the impetus comes from disaffected terrorists
or from Islamabad, the spike in terrorist violence has
steeled New Delhi's resolve. PM Manmohan Singh told
reporters before his July 6 flight to the G-8 Summit "the
terror attack in Ayodhya was a major incident, and there was
no doubt that the infrastructure for terrorism (in Pakistan)
is by and large intact." "These incidents, if they are
repeated, have the potential to disrupt the peace process,"
he added. This measured statement is the closest the PM has
come to blaming Pakistan for an attack since he came to
office over a year ago, although he declined to comment
further on cross-border terrorism. The PM broke his silence
in the wake of Ayodhya and a rising tide of high-profile
attacks in J&K, as detailed in paras 3-4.

Terrorists Target J&K Motorcades
--------------


3. (C) Three recent high-profile assassination attempts on
J&K state ministers mark a new escalation of violence there.
Additional Director General of Police (J&K) Kuldeep Khoda
theorized that these attacks were designed to demonstrate
that the terrorist groups retain the capability to attack
these well-protected civilian targets:

-- Police arrested a suspected Hizbul Mujahedeen terrorist on
June 27 in Anantnag shortly before J&K Minister of State for
Home Affairs AR Veeri was to make a public address.

-- Rural Development Minister and State Congress Party
President Peerzada Mohammad Sayeed, along with Roads and
Buildings Minister Ghulam Ahmed Mir and two state
legislators, narrowly avoided a July 4 IED blast in Srinagar
as they were driving together to a meeting.

-- On July 6, attackers raked Irrigation and Flood Control
Minister Sayed Bashir Ahmed's bulletproof car with automatic
weapons fire, wounding several of his security detail and a
civilian, although the Minister emerged unscathed.

Surge in Lethal J&K Bomb Attacks
--------------


4. (C) There were approximately 70 explosion attacks in J&K
during the first six months of 2005, according to the
Institute for Conflict Management's database. Most of these
caused no fatalities, none killed more than three people, and
many caused no casualties at all. The month of May, however,
saw five explosions wounding more than 20 civilians each.
The recent surge in lethal bomb attacks include the following:

-- June 13, Pulwama township (Ref C): 15 killed and over 100
injured when a car bomb detonated in front of a school near a
crowded marketplace. No group claimed responsibility.

-- June 24, Srinagar: 9 soldiers killed and over 20 injured
after an RDX-laden car detonated near their bus. Hizbul
Mujahedeen claimed responsibility.

-- June 29, Srinagar: 10 wounded during a grenade attack in
Srinagar's city center. No group claimed responsibility.

GOI Says Infiltration Rising
--------------

5. (C) A public Home Ministry report estimated that 60
terrorists crossed the LoC into J&K in June after frozen
passes along the LoC cleared, up from 37 in May. Kashmir
police official Khoda told us that the J&K Police
infiltration estimates for 2005 were still well below those
for 2004 on a month-on-month basis, but noted that there was
a dramatic seasonal upswing from April to May, albeit still
below 2004 figures. NDTV Defense Correspondent Col. (ret.)
Ajai Shukla, who visited Kashmir in June, explained that
weather and terrorists had significantly degraded the LoC
fence, facilitating infiltration; he added that traps set by
the Army (i.e. punji sticks) wounded more soldiers than they
did terrorists.

Possible Strains on Indo-Pak Rapprochement as a Result
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Khoda and our journalist contacts in Srinagar tell us
that pro-Pakistan separatist hardliner SAS Geelani and Hizbul
Mujahedeen supremo Syed Salahuddin "are not comfortable with
the Indo-Pak dialogue" and fear they are being sidelined (Ref
B). They opine that the escalation in high-profile and
lethal attacks is a "spoiler's move" to set back or disrupt
rapprochement.


7. (C) However, they also say they cannot rule out that the
increase in violence is a reminder from Islamabad that it can
ramp up terrorism if the peace process fails to advance their
Kashmir agenda. Tahir Mohi-ud-din, editor of J&K's most
widely circulated weekly "Chattan," suggested to us that if
the attacks were not driven by "terrorist spoilers," then
"people from across the border want to keep pressure on the
dialogue." "Kashmir Images" editor Bashir Manzar echoed that
the attacks might be a signal that "Pakistan wants to show
its bargaining chip."

Comment: GOI Patience Being Tested
--------------


8. (C) The PM's pointed remarks to Islamabad on terrorism
signal his frustration that improving bilateral atmospherics
are not translating into a better security situation in J&K.
Given the PM's reluctance overtly to reference cross-border
terrorism in the two Singh-Musharraf joint statements, his
statement represents a stronger warning than the words
themselves suggest. Calling Ayodhya a "major incident" puts
Islamabad on warning that its goodwill with Delhi is not
inexhaustible. Saying that more spectacular attacks could
derail the peace process signals Musharraf that rapprochement
is not yet "irreversible" as far as the PM is concerned.
BLAKE