SONIA GANDHI CAPS INDIA'S MONTH IN RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005208

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2015
TAGS: PREL ENRG EPET PGOV RS IN
SUBJECT: SONIA GANDHI CAPS INDIA'S MONTH IN RUSSIA

REF: A. MOSCOW 7987


B. NEW DELHI 4270

C. NEW DELHI 4447

Classified By: POL Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Sonia Gandhi's trip to Russia from June
13-16 (Ref A) on her first bilateral visit abroad since
taking over as the United Progressive Alliance Chairperson
has stirred debate about the symbolism of her trip and
provoked a front-page controversy over questions of ethics
and protocol. Delhi-based foreign analysts noted Gandhi
family ties to Russia and the need for Russian assistance to
meet India's growing energy needs, while political pundits
speculated that she might use the trip to dig up information
on UP Chief Minister Yadav's 1997 Sukhoi deal and also to
ease relations between the Congress and its Communist allies.
Although her trip was viewed here as more symbolic than
substantial, Mrs. Gandhi followed in the footsteps of the
Prime Minister, President and Foreign Minister, who all
visited within the last month, illustrating Russia's
continued importance as a traditional partner and energy
supplier even as India's foreign policy branches out. End
Summary.

Why Madame Gandhi?
--------------


2. (U) United Progressive Alliance (UPA) Chairperson Sonia
Gandhi's decision to travel to Russia with FM Natwar Singh on
her first bilateral foreign trip, with little notice or
coverage in the press, surprised many Delhi-based observers.
Amit Baruah, the Diplomatic Correspondent at "The Hindu,"
speculated that the Gandhi family's historical ties to Moscow
and Indira and Rajiv's frequent visits to Russia made it a
comfortable choice. Sonia has her own connection to Russia,
having reportedly travelled on this trip to the cities of
Vladimir and Suzdal, where her father, Stefan Maino, was a
POW during WWII. According to the "Asian Age," she was
influenced by her father's Russian experience and studied
Russian growing up.


3. (C) Mrs. Gandhi may also have intended to send a signal
that she is expanding her role in foreign affairs. For the
first year of the UPA regime, Sonia was very careful to let
PM Manmohan Singh take the limelight, and rarely met with
foreign visitors. When the Russia trip was announced, "The
Hindu's" Baruah noted that Sonia's political role and lack of
foreign affairs experience made it "out of sync for Mrs.
Gandhi to be involved in foreign policy decision making."
This accords with what we know of UP policy making -- with
Sonia out of the official decision loop on routine foreign
policy matters. According to Zafar Agha, former news editor
of the weekly "India Today," Sonia wanted to change that view
by "testing the waters" to see how she shapes up abroad and
demonstrating to her party that she is capable of handling
both domestic and external affairs. According to Agha,
showing greater foreign policy skills strengthens her hand
internally by "making her an indispensable figure that can
play any card." Sonia has also recently retained the
services of foreign policy staffer Aneil Methrani, who was
secretary of the AICC foreign affairs committee when Congress

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was out of power, and was given an Ambassadorship in 2004.
Given the Gandhi family's historically strong connection to
Russia, Agha noted that Putin's invitation was the perfect
opportunity for her debut. Sonia has also reportedly
received official invitations to travel to Pakistan and
China.

Foreign Policy Explanations
--------------


4. (C) The GOI had plenty of high-level opportunities to
strengthen bilateral ties in recent weeks (Ref A),so
although Mrs. Gandhi's trip was without a public agenda, it
nevertheless had foreign policy implications. Indian press
reported that Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal described
Putin's invitation as "an exceptional gesture of friendship
on the part of President Putin that reflects the high
importance both sides attach to their relations." MEA
Russian expert Dr. T. Suresh Babu noted to Poloff that this
trip was part of the "ongoing intensive cooperation" between
friends, hoping to "add substance to the relationship," but
"not a breakthrough trip."


5. (C) According to Mr. Babu, Sonia met with President Putin
for lunch and addressed the Dialogue of Civilizations World
Society Forum, organized by the Center of National Glory in
Russia, where she spoke of the need to work with Russia to
address terrorism and strengthen the "forces of
multilateralism (Ref A)." Highlighting the need to add
substance to Russia-India ties through greater people to
people contacts and economic cooperation, JNU professor
Gulshan Sachdeva commented that despite "11 summit meetings
and 112 agreements in the last 12 years," tangibly there is
little outside of defense and energy agreements to show for
the relationship. Veena Nair, a professor of Politics at
Lady Shri Ram College, told Poloff that Sonia's trip
reassured Moscow that even as the Congress party continues to
strengthen new relationships across the globe, Russia is
still an important ally.


6. (C) Baruah described this as a "political signal to the
Russian leadership," at the base of which is the GOI's energy
policy. With a reported 1.7 billion USD invested in the
Sakhalin I oil field and recent MOUs for underground coal
gasification and hydrocarbon cooperation, India's
relationship with Russia is increasingly centered around
energy security. After three top-level visits in May and
June featuring a public emphasis on nuclear energy, Baruah
said that "knowing the way the Russian system works, the GOI
must have seen that closer relations would be helpful in
gaining access to Russia's energy reserves." New Delhi's
close ties with Moscow also helped procure an invitation for
Delhi to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an
observer, which also helps advance India's energy agenda in
Central Asia.

Internal Political Motivations
--------------


7. (C) Mrs. Gandhi's status as chairperson of the ruling
coalition predictably spurred a host of rumors about the
message her trip sends back home. Delhi-based pundits
speculated that Sonia went to Russia to dig up information
about the Indian purchase of 40 Russian Sukhois made when
current Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav
was Defense Minister in 1997. Yadav has been implicated in a
scheme under which India would pay an advance of 500 million
USD to Russia for the aircraft in 1995 to bail out the Sukhoi
manufacturer. If Congress can unearth evidence in Russia to
substantiate the implications, that would help discredit
Yadav and strengthen Rahul Gandhi's prospects for developing
a political power base in UP. Journalist Agha speculated
that Sonia is on the lookout for this evidence and will "be
asking through her interlocutors," but doubted that Russia
would oblige her on the Sukhoi deal, knowing that any
information would come back to haunt Moscow as well.


8. (C) An alternative view in political circles is that
Sonia went to Russia because the Congress party is concerned
about growing influence by the Left Front (LF),the group of
four Communist parties that support Congress in the UPA
coalition. From this perspective, her trip was aimed at
playing on the difference between the Russian leaning CPI and
the Chinese influenced CPI(M) to strengthen the former. Mrs.
Gandhi could also have hoped to fracture the LF in several
states that are holding elections in early 2006. Political
commentator and journalist Agha observed that the
country-based ideological alignments of the communist parties
do not matter much these days, and that Mrs. Gandhi's trip
"would generally give a good signal to the left." He
speculated that the trip might help Congress get "very mild
support in Kerala" in the next election, but concluded that
Gandhi would never be able to weaken and split the LF.

Opposition Cries Fowl
--------------


9. (C) Still smarting from the recent Advani leadership
crisis (Refs B and C),the BJP used Sonia's trip as fodder
for front-page accusations of impropriety in her travel to
Russia. In addition to several protocol complaints, the more
serious accusation concerned Gandhi's choice to take a
private jet belonging to the "Reliance" business conglomerate
to fly to Russia. The GOI is currently conducting multiple
investigations into Reliance activities. Party Treasurer
Motilal Vora asserted that Congress paid 12 lakh rupees (or
about 27,000 USD) in advance for the plane, which he
contended was normal practice for both the Congress and the
Opposition. Political commentator Agha noted that all Indian
politicians use corporate jets, often without paying for them
and that the BJP was trying to divert attention from the
Advani crisis. The controversy died out after the Congress
documented BJP use of Reliance jets for recent domestic
travel.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The Congress President's unique position in Indian
politics allowed Sonia simultaneously to resurrect Gandhi
family ties with Russia, establish herself as a capable
figure in foreign affairs, and curry more support from the
left parties. Although her foreign policy debut was marked
by controversy over protocol and planes, the UPA viewed the
trip as a success, which may pave the way for Mrs. Gandhi to
accept invitations to China and Pakistan. The timing of
Gandhi's trip, coming in the wake of other senior level
visits to Moscow, is an indication of the importance to India
of energy and defense acquisition and its continued
commitment to close ties with Russia, even as the PM pursues
a new and stronger partnerships with Washington.
BLAKE