LET PRIME SUSPECT IN SYMBOLIC AYODHYA ATTACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005165

SIPDIS

STATE FOR S/CT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2015
TAGS: PTER PREL PHUM IN PK
SUBJECT: LET PRIME SUSPECT IN SYMBOLIC AYODHYA ATTACK

REF: NEW DELHI 4449

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The July 5 attempt by suspected
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) terrorists to wreck the controversial
Ayodhya temple site was foiled by Indian security forces who
had been previously alerted that the group might target
religious sites. The incident, however, is causing
significant ripples in India's domestic politics and
cross-border diplomacy. The GOI and Indian commentators say
that the terrorists, who have not yet been positively
identified, had hoped to ignite a domestic firestorm with
their attack, similar to what happened when the mosque was
destroyed by Hindus in 1992. At present, Hindu-Muslim
violence appears unlikely. The assault has been condemned by
politicians of every stripe, including Kashmiri separatists
and Hizbul Mujahedeen, but the Indo-Pak peace process may
suffer if the attackers prove to be Pakistan-based. Indian
Foreign Minister Natwar Singh pointedly told Pakistan Prime
Minister Aziz during a summit in Kazakhstan that the GOI
would soon show Islamabad they had "concrete proof" that
infiltration continues. Police forces throughout the country
remain on alert, especially at religious and historic sites,
because this attack -- and possibly follow-on attempts --
targeted a symbolic site and was not designed to maximize
casualties. This cable addresses what we currently know
about the attack itself; separate analysis of likely effects
on Indian domestic politics and Indo-Pak rapprochement will
follow septels. End Summary.

Attack on the Fabric of Indian Society
--------------


2. (C) At around 8:30 am on July 5, six terrorists posing as
Hindu pilgrims detonated a bomb that blasted a hole through
the outer wall of the Ayodhya temple complex. The site
itself is unremarkable. The real target was India's
multireligious society, which the terrorists sought to roil
through their action. After the explosion, the group charged
toward their apparent target, the construction area where a
temple to Ram had been planned to be built on the site of the
former Babri Mosque. The terrorists failed in their attempts
to damage the site despite their reported use of hand
grenades and a rocket-propelled grenade launcher. After a
two-hour-long gunfight, all the terrorists had been killed.
One, rigged as a second human bomb, apparently detonated
during the firefight, before he could close the gap to the
site. Officials are not yet confirming what kind of
explosives the two suicide bombers used. Aside from the
terrorists, one unidentified woman was killed during the
grenade attack. Several Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)
officers were wounded, none critically.

PM Condemns Attack, Displays Resolve and Calm
--------------


3. (U) Following a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on
Political Affairs later on July 5, PM Manmohan Singh
expressed his "shock" at the attack "aimed at destabilizing
society" and promised that the GOI will "deal firmly" with
all such attacks. He also appealed for the populace to
remain calm and called on all political parties to "help
maintain peace and communal harmony." The GOI has so far
refused to blame publicly any group, but unnamed news sources
claim that they have been told by informants within
the GOI that Pakistan-based LeT is the prime suspect.

Preliminary Reporting Suggests LeT
--------------

4. (C) Although not conclusive, many indicators point to
LeT. The hardware seized after the attack -- a mobile phone,
AK-47 and AK-56 rifles, pistols and as many as 17 hand
grenades, according to several mainstream press articles --
shows that the attackers were well-equipped, and led the
police to conclude that the operation was also well planned.
"Indian Express" quoted unnamed security sources as
indicating that the grenades recovered were Arges, the same
manufacture as those used in the December 13, 2001 attack on
Parliament. The use of an official vehicle to breach the
external security ring is also similar to the Parliament
attack. New Delhi-based terrorism expert Ajai Sahni told
Poloff that Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) has largely been sidelined
from conducting spectacular attacks, and the assault on
Ayodhya did nothing to advance the Kashmir cause (which is
Hizbul Mujahedeen's agenda). This equation leaves LeT -- the
most effective jihadi outfit for ex-Kashmir operations -- as
the likely suspect.


5. (C) Police also point to this attack as following a
pattern similar to that used in the September 24, 2002 LeT
attack on Akshardham temple in Gujarat. In 2002, two LeT
cadres used assault rifles and grenades to kill 32 people and
wound over 70. As with Ayodhya, the Akshardham attack was
designed as much to inflame religious tensions as to cause
casualties. That was followed two months later by lethal
assaults on two temples in Jammu City. LeT has targeted
Ayodhya in the past; in 2001, one member of an LeT fedayeen
squad survived a police encounter in Lucknow and reached
Ayodhya before he was killed by security forces.


6. (C) "Hindustan Times" Senior Editor Manoj Joshi theorized
that the group that attacked Ayodhya might have been the
"third LeT module" supposed to target RSS HQ in Nagpur, after
two others (whose targets were reportedly the Indian Military
Academy in Dehra Dun and one or more IT firms in Bangalore)
were arrested or killed in Delhi on March 5. Other
mainstream journalists quoted police sources who said that
there had been a recent spike in terrorist "chatter" urging
militants in India to execute a spectacular attack after a
relative lull in violence.

Symbolic Target Selected to Maximize Communal Fallout
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Dr. Sahni underlined to Poloff that "there can be no
other objective for selecting this target" other than to
spark communal violence. He attributed the relative calm in
the aftermath to the failure of the attack: "If the attack
had been successful, Hindu communalist leaders would have
been able to orchestrate at least a few riots or acts of
violent protest. The number of fatalities in the attack
itself was irrelevant."


8. (C) As with the May 22 Delhi cinema bombings (Reftel),
the terrorists failed in their attempt to foment communal
retribution after this attack. Indeed, the Hindu hardline
RSS issued a public request that all protests be conducted in
a "peaceful manner." However, police reportedly resorted to
tear gas and water cannons to break up a July 6 demonstration
of BJP activists in New Delhi as BJP President LK Advani
began his address calling for the resignation of Home
Minister Shivraj Patil and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister
Mulayam Singh Yadav. RSO estimates that approximately two
thousand people turned out for the Delhi event despite
monsoon rains. Further domestic fallout will be covered
septel.

GOI Considering Embassy Offer of Technical Assistance
-------------- --------------


9. (C) RSO offered technical assistance to the Home
Ministry, who advised that their team is still processing the
crime scene and they would need to determine what their
investigative needs were. MHA confirmed that no group has
yet claimed responsibility for the attack, and that it is too
early in the investigation to indicate who may be
responsible.

Indo-Pak Talks not in Jeopardy (Yet)
--------------


10. (C) The attack also places the successful Indo-Pak peace
process at potential risk. Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, on
the margins of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit
in Kazakhstan, repeatedly told Pakistan Prime Minister
Shaukat Aziz that the GOI would soon present Islamabad with
"concrete evidence of cross-border terrorism." Meanwhile, in
New Delhi, an unnamed senior MEA official reiterated to
Reuters that, according to the GOI, infiltration "has
decreased but not stopped" and Pakistan "has not dismantled
terrorist infrastructure." Dr. Sahni (and many other
observers) is convinced that "even if LeT was not the
responsible group, the linkages between these terrorists and
Pakistan will be just as inexorable." Indian police are now
gearing up for follow-on attacks on other religious or
historic sites. If later attacks cause greater casualties or
damage India's national treasures, it will become
increasingly difficult for the GOI to pursue Indo-Pak
rapprochement. At a minimum, commentators are renewing calls
for the PM to publicly remind Pakistan President Musharraf of
his January 6, 2004 pledge not to let territory under
Pakistani control be used for terrorism in India, which the
PM has long avoided doing.

Kashmiris Denounce Attacks
--------------


11. (C) Hizbul Mujahedeen (the largest ethnic Kashmiri
terrorist group) and the United Jihad Council quickly
condemned the attack as "anti-Hindu, anti-Muslim, and aimed
at provoking riots." The moderate Mirwaiz Hurriyat faction,
and then the pro-Pakistan hardline Geelani faction, quickly
followed suit, and our journalist contacts in Srinagar say
that this incident is viewed there as an impediment to both
separatists' agenda and the Indo-Pak peace process. "Daily
Excelsior" correspondent Ahmed Ali Fayez in Srinagar remarked
that many people there believe LeT staged the attack. Izhar
Wani with AFP in the Valley told us that "moderates,
hardliners, everyone is condemning it."

Police On Alert
--------------


12. (U) Home Secretary VK Duggal confirmed on Indian TV that
the GOI had prior information that terrorists planned to
target "important installations and religious places" in
Uttar Pradesh, which led the state government to increase the
numbers and alert level of its security personnel at several
sites, including Ayodhya. Delhi Police Commissioner KK Paul
announced after the attack that he was calling up more
officers, adding that there was no specific threat against
targets in the city.
Central Reserve Police Force Credited
--------------


13. (U) The attack on the temple complex was repulsed
primarily by CRPF commandos, the same security branch that
gunned down the JeM terrorists who tried to storm Parliament
on December 13, 2001. CRPF forces guard the inner areas of
the temple complex, and state security forces provide
perimeter defense. A number of leading political party
leaders have congratulated the CRPF for their successful
defense of the site.

Comment
--------------


14. (C) The relative calm in the immediate aftermath of the
Ayodhya attack suggests there will be no firestorm of
communal violence. Indians seem aware that pursuing that
path would vindicate the terrorists' plans. The GOI has not
launched any official accusations of Pakistani involvement,
despite initial suggestions this was an LeT attack, but
Natwar Singh's publicized warning to PM Aziz that
infiltration continues suggests the government is concerned
about the political fallout from persistent cross-border
terrorism, despite the broad improvement in relations with
Islamabad. A clear finding of LeT responsibility will
increase the domestic pressure on the Singh government to do
something about it.
BLAKE