INDIA TESTS TRILATERAL TALKS WITH CHINA AND RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004996

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2015
TAGS: PGOV RS CH IN
SUBJECT: INDIA TESTS TRILATERAL TALKS WITH CHINA AND RUSSIA

REF: NEW DELHI 3973

Classified By: Charge Bob Blake, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Foreign Minister Natwar Singh's June 2
meeting with the Foreign Ministers of China and Russia in
Vladivostok reflects India's desire for greater cooperation
on areas of mutual interest such as energy, terrorism, and
business, but Delhi-based analysts contend that any results
for India will be limited. While there is room for
cooperation, especially in the energy sector, this trilateral
concept is a trial balloon and has no institutional
arrangements. Aside from anti-American groups who still long
for such a trilateral alternative alliance to balance the US,
our contacts downplayed the potential for expanded
cooperation now and doubted it would have much impact on
India's approach to the United States. End Summary.

Talking Up The Triangle
--------------


2. (C) India's leadership was initially wary about prospects
for a China-India-Russia trilogue when former Russian PM
Primakov first floated the idea for a "strategic triangle" in
New Delhi in 1998. The GOI only recently warmed to the idea
after improving bilateral relations with China and increasing
energy cooperation with Russia became a major priority. The
leaders of the three countries held meetings on the sidelines
of three gatherings they attended together, most recently
during the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building
Measures in Asia (CICA) Summit in Almaty in October 2004, but
June 2 was the first planned three-way summit of the foreign
ministers. Previous meetings yielded joint statements on
common views towards Iraq, drug trafficking and terrorism and
the need for the three countries to exchange views to
"strengthen a collective approach to world affairs."


3. (C) The Joint Communiqu issued at the end of the summit
downplayed its import by calling it an "informal meeting,"
but Indian media carried promising statements from all three
leaders. In a press briefing on his return from Moscow on
May 10, PM Singh called the foreign ministers' meeting "an
essay in mutual comprehension, adding that "there are immense
possibilities for cooperation" to "work together with
like-minded countries" to "take advantage of the forces
unleashed by globalization." During Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao's visit to New Delhi on April 12, he told journalists
that "China, India and Russia are countries with influence"
that have "similar positions" on "promoting the
democratization of international relations." In a recent
"Hindustan Times" interview, Russian Ambassador to India
Vyacheslav Trubnikov optimistically contended that this
"triangle has undoubtedly emerged as one of the most
promising regional arrangements."

Progress Towards Multipolarity?
--------------


4. (C) The Joint Communiqu also listed the twin goals of
"democratization of international relations" and "progress
towards multipolarity." While anti-American elements in
India may hope that this grouping will work towards a
multipolar world order, Delhi-based analysts are quick to
point out that India will be sensitive to protect its growing
relationship with the US. Amit Baruah, the Diplomatic Editor
of "The Hindu," stressed that "each of these countries values
their relationship with the US too highly to face risking it
by antagonizing the Americans." JNU Professor Gulshan
Sachdeva explained that wishing for a multipolar world was
"fine in theory," but the government has been "very clear to
say that the trilateral forum was not created against the US"
because they "realize the limitations." Although each
country would like to invest in "an insurance policy of
multipolarity," Sujit Dutta, a Sino-Indian expert at the
Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, observed that
neither leader can risk upsetting stable relationships with
the US. C. Raja Mohan, an influential writer on strategic
affairs for the "Indian Express," commented to Poloff that
this group was politically "going nowhere." Ruling out
significant political cooperation, Indian pundits stressed
that India should look towards economic cooperation for the
trilateral's long term success.

Issues For Trilateral Cooperation
--------------


5. (C) Noting that China, India and Russia account for 40%
of the world's population and have "similar viewpoints on
several issues of regional and international concern," Indian
FM Natwar Singh's statement in Vladivostok emphasized the
need for "mutually beneficial cooperation" in areas such as
terrorism, business, and energy. According to MEA Russian
specialist Dr. T. Suresh Babu, these countries compose the
world's largest economic region, and will focus on "possible
trilateral economic cooperation." The only tangible result
of the summit was a plan for a three-way business meeting in
India before the end of March 2006 to strengthen direct
business-to-business contacts. "The Hindu's" Baruah observed
that from India's standpoint, the most significant outcome of
this first stand-alone meeting was "that they've met."
Although there is potential for cooperation in energy and
defense, Baruah noted that "there were no other substantial
dimensions" to the trilateral relationship and that it was
"not like the US-Indian relationship, with a variety of
issues for discussion."


6. (C) In a May 23 interview, Russian ambassador Vyacheslav
Trubnikov commented on the Russia-China-India triangle,
saying simply that "China and India need energy and fuel.
Russia has both to offer." In this blunt statement, he
summarized why many Delhi-based analysts believe that India
finally agreed to the trilateral meetings: energy. With New
Delhi's foreign policy increasingly dependent on gaining
access to energy and sensitive to Chinese competition for
influence, New Delhi must turn its historically friendly ties
with Russia into energy to meet the demand of its growing
economy. India has invested more than one billion USD in the
Sakhalin 1 and 3 oil fields, and increasingly competes with
China over energy deals around the world. Professor Sachdeva
called energy cooperation "still in the idea stage," but
contended that India could gain by "working together instead
of competing for access to energy reserves in Russia and
Central Asia."


7. (C) India also relies on Russia for defense purchases,
which could be an area for future collaboration with China.
In a paper entitled "Trilateral Economic Cooperation,"
Professor Sachdeva writes that "Russia's annual military
sales to India and China amount to some 80 percent of
Moscow's overall arms exports, which reached $4.5 billion in
2001." He suggests that by pooling Russia's cash and defense
history, China's manufacturing knowledge and India's
expertise in software upgrades, the three countries could
together become a major defense supplier for third country
markets.


8. (C) To prepare for Indian involvement in long-term
cooperation, Sujit Dutta from the Delhi-based Institute for
Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) observed that the most
important thing that the trilateral summit could do was to
help "keep all the bilateral relationships stable." True
cooperation of any type requires a stable relationship
between all three players. In an article in the
Calcutta-based "Statesman," Dmitry Kosyrev recently suggested
that Moscow could help both countries by playing a "role as a
mediator promoting rapprochement between its two allies" as
they increasingly compete in Central and South Asia. Looking
at the summit as a type of international architecture for
stability, Sujit Dutta noted that it was in India and the
world's interest for China, India and Russia to keep these
power relationships stable. The day after the summit, India
was recommended to join China, Russia and four Central Asian
republics in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in
observer status, allowing it access to and increasing
influence in this resource rich area.
Limits To Cooperation: The China Factor
--------------


9. (C) India's relations with China will complicate
substantial cooperation in the near term, V. Sudarshan, a
Senior Analyst for India's weekly "Outlook" magazine,
commented to Poloff recently. He suggested that from New
Delhi's point of view, China is the limiting factor on
political and economic cooperation. He contended that that
there are "too many unresolved issues" for immediate
cooperation and that China is not interested in any type of
political alliance with India. Before India can hope for a
more symbiotic trilateral relationship, it needs to "set its
relationship with China in better order." New Delhi's
frustration with Beijing's moves behind the scenes to stall
Security Council expansion proposals after publicly agreeing
to India's candidacy is a recent example of the political
obstacles to coordinating this trilateral group (Ref A).
Sujit Dutta from IDSA dismissed defense cooperation, saying
that India is too suspicious of China's military intentions.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) This is arguably the first time since India's
independence that bilateral relations among all three
countries are positive enough for a stand-alone meeting, yet
their dynamic nature and unresolved issues between New Delhi
and Beijing will likely prevent India from engaging in
substantial trilateral cooperation in the short term.
Competition over energy and influence in Central and South
Asia are likely to be future bilateral irritants for India
and China, and this trilateral arrangement may provide at
best a limited stabilizing role in these areas. In the short
term, the growing US-India relationship will limit the
potential negative implications from the triangle for the
United States, and move the "strategic" content towards
economic rather than overt political cooperation.
BLAKE