BHUTANESE AMBASSADOR: SECURITY SITUATION IN NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000496

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM PREF PTER IN NP BT UNHCR
SUBJECT: BHUTANESE AMBASSADOR: SECURITY SITUATION IN NEPAL
WILL HINDER REFUGEE REPATRIATION

REF: STATE 9663

Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford, Reason 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The poor security situation in Nepal,
instability of the government in Kathmandu, and uncertainty
over future GON willingness to deliver on any inherited
agreements will hinder the refugee repatriation process,
Bhutanese Ambassador Lyonpo Dago Tshering told the
Ambassador on January 19. During the meeting, the Ambassador
passed PRM A/S Dewey's letter to King Wangchuck (reftel) to
Tshering and reiterated USG interest in helping to restart

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the refugee repatriation process. Tshering related that his
government had heard rumors of an upcoming military offensive
by Nepalese forces against the Maoists. The draft
constitution is now being reviewed by the Cabinet and the
King plans to "take the document to the people" in February.
End Summary.

Security and Stability
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2. (C) Ambassador Tshering reiterated that the RGOB is not
willing to restart the work of the Joint Verification Teams
(JVT) under the current security situation in Nepal. He
added that if another attack on refugee verification workers
occurred similar to the December 22, 2003 incident, there
would be "enormous problems back home." He also expressed
reservations about the current political developments in
Nepal, questioning whether advancing the repatriation process
at this time would not cause additional problems. "We want
to be part of the solution, but not part of the Nepalese
problem," he said, implying that resettling the Category 1
refugees at this time might be destabilizing in Nepal. He
had little confidence in the current Nepalese government's
ability to remain in power, and noted that the other six
opposition factions have already stated they would not abide
by agreements made by the Deuba administration.

Letter Diplomacy
--------------


3. (C) The Ambassador then delivered A/S Dewey's letter
(reftel) stressing USG interest in creating momentum in the
repatriation process. The Ambassador highlighted the message
that spelling out King Wangchuck's plan clearly to the GON
could only be positive, and that a unilateral initiative to
repatriate Category 1 refugees immediately could break the
ice and get the process moving. Ambassador Tshering pledged
RGOB support to the repatriation process, adding that Thimphu
is open to such a repatriation, but that a dialogue with the
GON needs to begin and that Kathmandu should draft the next
letter.


4. (C) Tshering described how he had engaged with his
Nepalese counterpart shortly after the Dewey/Wangchuck plan
was announced in October, but the Nepalese Ambassador told
him he did not have a mandate to discuss the issue. In
response to the Ambassador's question as to whether there had
been any subsequent contact, and Tshering answered that the
only engagement between the two governments was the initial
exchange of letters. He complained that the letter from the
GON focused solely on restarting the JVT process and not on
the repatriation of Category 1 refugees.

Maoists
--------------


5. (C) Tshering postulated that if the security situation in
Nepal improved, the JVT process would quickly be back on
track. However, when questioned whether that was likely, he
quickly said no, adding that he had heard rumors of an
upcoming military offensive by the GON against the Maoists
and asked if the USG had heard anything about it. (Comment:
Embassy has no information about such military action. End
Comment)

Constitution
--------------

6. (SBU) Tshering concluded the meeting by announcing that
the draft constitution is ready and is currently being
reviewed by the Cabinet. The King plans to take the document
to Bhutan's 20 districts for the people's review in February.
No date has been set for its official release or adoption,
and it will need a second review by the Cabinet following the
King's "road show" and then a vote in the National Assembly.
Tshering said that the constitution will not change current

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citizenship laws.
MULFORD