NDA CALLS FOR STRIKES TO PROTEST DISSOLUTION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003932

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2015
TAGS: ELAB PGOV IN
SUBJECT: NDA CALLS FOR STRIKES TO PROTEST DISSOLUTION OF
BIHAR ASSEMBLY

REF: CALCUTTA 206

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff R. Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: A strike called by the opposition NDA for
May 24-25 to protest the government's dissolution of the
Bihar Assembly and to demand the removal of Bihar Governor
Buta Singh drew a limited response. Clearly not impressed
with the strike, the UPA reiterated its support for the
Governor and claimed that dissolution was necessary in light
of NDA attempts to "buy legislators." State elections will
likely be held in October/November, with Laloo Prasad Yadav's
RJD in a good position to win. End Summary.

Background
--------------


2. (U) The NDA called for state-wide strikes in Bihar on May
24-25 to protest the UPA government's dissolution of the
Bihar Assembly (reftel) and to demand the recall of Bihar
Governor Buta Singh. The NDA claimed that the UPA dissolved
the Legislative Assembly to prevent it from taking power, on
the grounds that Congress has a history of manipulating state
governments when it fails to win a majority. The NDA accused
Singh of acting as a "UPA agent" rather than an "objective
arbiter." In Bihar, the strikes received support from some
Independent, LJP, and RJD MLAs. In Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh,
the BJP also held demonstrations outside its Party
headquarters.


3. (U) Press reports suggested a weak response to the strike
call in Bihar. With the state currently under President's
Rule, the UPA deployed heavy security to head off the
strikes, and arrested over 1,500 people, including senior NDA
leaders. Despite train service disruption in a few areas,
railway and vehicular traffic was close to normal, although
many shops and businesses closed their doors. In contrast to
previous strikes in Bihar, violence was minimal and
surprisingly less than expected.

Congress Remains Adamant
--------------


4. (U) The strikes were intended to demonstrate anti-UPA and
anti-Laloo sentiment, but they were not widely observed. The
UPA shows no sign of giving in to pressure to remove the
Governor. The PM stated that dissolution of the assembly was
a necessity because of "horse-trading." National Rural
Development Minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh alleged that the
NDA was offering bribes of up to 30 million Rupees (USD
700,000) to LJP legislators willing to defect.


5. (U) Despite low observance, the NDA insisted that the
strikes were successful and that they demonstrated that the
people of Bihar are angry and frustrated with Governor Singh
and the UPA. A senior BJP state leader told ConGen Calcutta
of his belief that the UPA will do badly in the upcoming
election, as there is a growing divide between the state's
two major politicians, Paswan and Laloo.


6. (U) The NDA also announced its intention to stage a large
rally in Patna on June 5 to demand the recall of Governor
Singh. State BJP President Gopal Narayan Singh went so far
as to compare the current situation in Bihar to the infamous
Emergency of the 1970s. He later announced that NDA
consitutents BJP and JD(U) would hold a massive rally in
Patna on June 25 as a day of protest against the UPA's
"conspiracy" to dissolve the Bihar Assembly. The state NDA
chose this date for the rally because it coincides with the
30th anniversary of the imposition of the Emergency by then
PM Indira Gandhi in 1975.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) NDA claims to the contrary, the Bihar strikes were
not effective. Congress knows it must unify the UPA in Bihar
before the new election because disunity cost them the race
in February. This will take some time, however, and Congress
is intent on delaying the election until it has laid the
necessary groundwork. The NDA, sensing an opportunity, wants
to move the election up to July, and make Laloo's poor
reputation and performance the main issue, although
revelations of NDA attempts to bribe legislators will not
convince voters that it is providing a strong alternative to
UPA corruption. Our sources predict that Laloo --with
Congress support-- will likely win the elections if they are
held in October/November, as expected, although Bihar
politics are notoriously difficult to predict. Bihar is
currently looking like an NDA v. Laloo race. We may see a
more individualistic (rather than party) approach to the
state elections this time around.

8. (U) This message was coordinated with Amconsul Calcutta.
BLAKE