AFGHANS AND INDIANS ENCOURAGED BY BILATERAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003746

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID SNAR IN IR PK AF
SUBJECT: AFGHANS AND INDIANS ENCOURAGED BY BILATERAL
RELATIONSHIP

REF: NEW DELHI 1521

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Afghan Ambassador to India Khalili expressed
strong appreciation for Indian assistance to his country in a
May 17 meeting with PolCouns and Poloff, and told us that PM
Manmohan Singh will visit Kabul in late June. In Khalili's
view, the GOI welcomes Afghanistan's strategic partnership
with the US as a positive development for Indian interests.
MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) Dilip Sinha
agreed that the US presence in Afghanistan is necessary, but
cautioned that the GOI hopes to see a gradual effort to
increase ANA capabilities and reduce the international
security footprint in Afghanistan. Indian community
development assistance in poppy-growing areas is on track,
but the GOI is concerned about security of Indian workers.
End Summary.

Positive Indian Influence in Afghanistan
--------------


2. (SBU) Recently returned to New Delhi after six weeks in
Afghanistan, Khalili was "very encouraged" by the progress he
witnessed there, both in development and political stability.
He praised Indian assistance efforts in Afghanistan, noting
that the aid projects, although sometimes slow, have earned
the goodwill of the Afghan people. Khalili contrasted the
positive attitude toward Indians with the Afghans' distrust
of Pakistan, commenting that Pakistan could do more than
India to assist Afghanistan but the population would still be
skeptical.


3. (SBU) "Everyone in Kabul" was excited by the Pul-i-Khumri
electric transmission line project, Khalili said, including
the Minister of Energy Ismael Khan. Although the GOA had
been disappointed to discover that completion was not
expected for two years, "everyone is keen to see it done,"
and other GOA Ministries (including the Ministry of Defense)
had pledged assistance to support the project in the
difficult mountainous terrain. Khalili reported that both
Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan Rakesh Sood and MEA Joint
Secretary Dilip Sinha had assured him of India's intention to

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complete the line as soon as possible.


4. (C) Although not yet publicly announced, Indian PM
Manmohan Singh will visit Afghanistan in late June, following
Afghan FM Abdullah's trip to New Delhi on June 10, Khalili
told us, linking the visits to India's sincere commitment to
Afghan reconstruction. Khalili predicted that the Indian PM
will stop in Kabul and possibly Kandahar on his trip, but
MEA's Dilip Sinha indicated that the governments have not yet
decided the details. Overall, the GOI is very committed to
playing a positive role in Afghan reconstruction, but
bureaucratic obstacles retard its good intentions, Khalili
stated. He reported that President Karzai has raised with
Pakistan the possibility of transit rights for Indian
humanitarian goods, but was skeptical that Islamabad would
yield on this issue for now.

India Appreciates American Partnership
--------------


5. (C) According to Khalili, his Indian interlocutors have
welcomed President Karzai's recently announced intention to
seek a long-term "strategic partnership" with the US.
Khalili reported that Indian Ambassador Rakesh Sood had told
him that close ties between the US and Afghanistan would
leave less room for Pakistani and Iranian influence, which
would be useful for both Afghanistan and India. MEA J/S
Sinha echoed this theme in a May 18 meeting with PolCouns and
Poloff, observing that the GOI recognizes the need for the
international community, including the US, to provide
security in Afghanistan. That being said, he expressed hope
that eventually Afghan forces would replace international
troops as they withdraw their presence to small cantonments.

Riots and Security
--------------


6. (C) MEA's Sinha sympathized with the "sensitive"
situation of US troops in Afghanistan, and opined that the
mix of a foreign presence, deep-seated religious passions,
and radical troublemakers kept the potential for anti-Western
demonstrations high. Echoing Khalili's comments, he stated
that India was working hard to maintain a positive public
image in Afghanistan, noting that the demonstrations included
nothing that was anti-Indian, but that "forces" in
Afghanistan were keen to divert attention from India's
cooperative assistance efforts and turn opinion against
India. If that happened, he worried, Indian assistance
workers in Afghanistan would be endangered.


7. (C) Sinha was sympathetic about the Pakistani dilemma in
Afghanistan, speculating that anti-Pakistan demonstrations
had been stirred up by tribal elements opposed to Musharraf's
crackdown on radical Islamists at home. This generous
interpretation was completely devoid of the zero-sum
arguments that characterized past GOI assessments of the GOP
role in Afghanistan.


8. (C) Sinha disagreed strongly with attempts to
"rehabilitate" former Taliban, arguing that "Taliban are by
definition extremists," as bad as any regime in history.
Conceding that a "witch hunt" for low-level former Taliban
would be excessive, he firmly reiterated his opposition to
including "hard core" Taliban in the government, comparing
this to rehabilitation of German Nazis or representatives of
the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia.

Moving Ahead on Community Development
--------------


9. (C) The GOI has identified two districts in which it will
implement a pilot program to support alternative sources of
income for poppy farmers (reftel),Sinha reported, and teams
will soon visit Afghanistan to prepare for implementation.
The districts selected were not "hard-core" opium production
areas, but had a good chance for success at eradicating poppy
cultivation. The programs would help poppy farmers switch to
other profitable agricultural products with which Indians had
experience in cultivation (for instance in Punjab),and also
train them in skills for cottage industry manufacturing,
providing small items for local needs without requiring large
scale infrastructure of electricity or roads for market
access. Sinha emphasized that civilian staff operating out
of the Indian consulates in Kandahar and Jalalabad, not
military personnel, would run the programs and therefore a
secure operating environment and goodwill toward India were
essential to their success.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Both the Afghan Ambassador and the Indian MEA are
pleased with their growing ties, particularly in development
assistance. We should see more on this theme if Manmohan
Singh visits Kabul in June. Both the MEA and the Afghans
tell us that such a visit would be the first by an Indian
leader in many decades, but the timing may succumb to
Manmohan Singh's busy travel calendar, including a mid-July
trip to Washington. While Khalili claimed to be more
optimistic than ever about Afghanistan's prospects for
stability, Sinha was much more concerned about extremists'
potential to cause violence and disrupt GOI development
programs. Although Sinha stopped short of endorsing a
US-Afghanistan strategic partnership, he did express
satisfaction with the effect of the US presence there.
BLAKE