NSA NARAYANAN PRESSES FOR ACTION AGAINST LET, WELCOMES EXCHANGE ON NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003717

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2015
TAGS: PREL, PTER, MASS, NP, PK, IN, INDO-PAK
SUBJECT: NSA NARAYANAN PRESSES FOR ACTION AGAINST LET,
WELCOMES EXCHANGE ON NEPAL


Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

1. (C) Summary: In a May 17 meeting with the Charge and
PolCouns (other topics septel) Indian NSA MK Narayanan
offered an upbeat readout on the state of Indo-Pak relations,
and implied that the GOI will push for progress at the
upcoming Siachen Glacier talks, but cautioned that more
concerted GOP action against Lashkar-e-Taiba is important to
insulate the peace process from an upsurge in terrorist
violence. On Nepal, Narayanan expressed satisfaction about
close US-India cooperation, and welcomed the prospect of an
experts exchange to refine our respective understandings of
RNA ammunition supplies. The NSA shared the Indian Army
assessment that RNA supplies could last for another few
months, but conceded this might not allow the Army to pursue
the Maoists actively. Narayanan indicated that the
long-stalled US-India Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement is
being readied for Defense Minister Mukherjee's late June
visit to Washington. End Summary.

ACSA Moving Ahead
--------------

2. (C) The charge opened discussion by congratulating the NSA
on the government's unexpectedly rapid passage of a strong
export control bill, and reviewed preparations for the Prime
Minister's July visit to Washington (details septel).
Narayanan was visibly pleased about passage of the export
control bill, and noted that the government had carefully
briefed the opposition in advance to ensure smooth progress
through Parliament. He added laughingly that the BJP boycott
probably helped to speed passage. Narayanan was generally
upbeat about the state of our bilateral relationship, but
complained that the Indian Space agency (ISRO) has an
impression that Washington is being unhelpful, pointing for
instance to restrictions on a proposed Boeing satellite
program. Reviewing proposals from Secretary Rice's recent
visit and the March 25 South Asia initiative, the Charge
underlined our commitment to moving forward across the
bilateral relationship. Narayanan (helpfully) indicated that
the long-stalled Access and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA)
is being readied for Defense Minister Mukherjee's late June
visit to Washington.

Explaining Nepal Shift
--------------

3. (C) Turning to Nepal, Narayanan indicated that the GOI
decision to proceed with military assistance in the pipeline
reflected an intention to "give the King the benefit of the
doubt" even though some in the government (especially the
Foreign Office) "are not sure where the King stands on
democracy." Narayanan welcomed the convergence of Indian and
US strategies, adding that he had spoken with UK NSA
Sheinwald to explain that the Indian announcement was "not so
much a change in policy as a concession." The Charge flagged
our concern about RNA ammunition supplies, noting that we
might need consider deliveries soon to maintain the Army's
operational readiness. Narayanan shared the Indian MOD
belief that the RNA "can manage for a few months," while
conceding that too tight a supply line would leave the Army
unable challenge the Maoists in offensive operations. He
flagged a particular GOI concern that the RNA not use
Indian-supplied material against the political parties or
civilian demonstrators, and indicated that New Delhi had
INSAS ammunition in the pipeline that it would have to decide
soon how to handle. "It's a delicate situation," the NSA
conceded, adding that ultimately the GOI "can't run another
country."

Cautiously Optimistic on Indo-Pak, Concerned about LET
-------------- --------------

4. (C) Narayanan said New Delhi was concerned about the
recent up-tick of terrorist violence in J&K, "but did not see
this as a result of a change in the Pakistani approach."
Although the GOI is carefully examining the recent car
bombing in Srinagar, he continued, the recent violence
appears to be the action of "random groups," which is
"something we have to live with." Nonetheless, Narayanan was
worried about the continued activities of Lashkar-e-Taiba
(LET),calling this the "touchstone" of Indo-Pak relations
that will determine the sustainability of the Indo-Pak peace
process. Invoking his own career as an intelligence
professional, Narayanan noted the GOI views LET as a wholly
owned subsidiary of ISI. Responding to PolCouns' description
of recent UN action against LET, the NSA remarked that "I've
run operations against foreign governments and I can't accept
this talk of rogue elements." He recalled that a recent GOI
operation rolled up three of four LET cells that planned to
target the Indian military academy. But what happened to the
fourth, the NSA asked? And what about the others we have not
identified? "That's what I'm worried about," Narayanan
added, warning that counterterrorism is not a predictable
science. As long as GOP support to LET continues (and
Naraynan implied that the GOI has seen no change in this
regard) the risk remains of a major terrorist attack linked
to Lashkar that would torpedo the process of Indo-Pak
rapproachment.

5. (C) Narayanan reported that the PM had instructed all his
subordinates that "we need to accept Musharraf's bonafides,
even on Siachen" (a reference to the upcoming Defense
Secretaries talks). With this guidance in mind, the MOD has

SIPDIS
been instructed "to take as flexible a position as possible"
for the May 25-26 negotiations. The NSA seemed oddly removed
from the activities of back channel envoy Satish Lambah.
Asked about the next round of Lambah talks with his Pakistani
counterpart, Narayanan remarked "that's a good question" and
indicated that he needed to check up on Lambah's activities
(we have heard from the Pakistanis that Lambah and Aziz will
meet before the Siachen talks). Narayanan indicated that he
is in contact with Musharraf adviser Tariq Aziz on issues of
immediate operational significance ("If Musharraf wants to
know something right away, Aziz gives me a call"),but
indicated that the long-term Indo-Pak negotiations lie with
Lambah.
BLAKE