UK NEPAL ENVOYS: MEA HARD LINE ON THE KING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003401

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2015
TAGS: PREL MASS IN NP UK
SUBJECT: UK NEPAL ENVOYS: MEA HARD LINE ON THE KING

REF: NEW DELHI 3250

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: In a May 5 discussion with PolCouns and
Emboffs, visiting UK Special Representative for Nepal Sir
Jeffrey James, UK Ambassador to Nepal Keith Bloomfield, and
UK Emboffs reported from their meeting with Foreign Secretary
Saran that MEA Nepal policy vis-a-vis the King is hardening
following backsliding after his April 23 meeting with the
Indian PM. The UK suggested that increased US-UK-India
operational cooperation may help to disrupt Maoist activity,
and that the GOI may be ready to consider previously
unthinkable ideas to end the turmoil in Nepal, including UN
peacekeepers. End Summary.

Saran: Don't Go Wobbly
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2. (C) According to the UK visitors, who were meeting in
Delhi with both GOI and non-governmental experts, Foreign
Secretary Shyam Saran and Joint Secretary (North) Ranjit Rae

SIPDIS
were unyielding in their opposition to rewarding King
Gyanendra for the lifting of the state of emergency (SOE) in
a May 4 meeting. The MEA believes the monarch is responding
to the pressure of the international arms supply suspension,
albeit slowly. The Brits reported that the re-arrest of
former PM Deuba indicated to the GOI that the King thought he
had won over the Indians by saying the right things in
Jakarta, and South Block wants to withhold any conciliatory
gestures until the Palace takes more permanent steps to
reverse the February 1 takeover. Now is not the time to go
soft and make concessions when the pressure is giving
results, Saran reportedly said. The MEA, which has prevailed
over those in the Indian military who want to resume military
supplies, sees a return to normal relations as still a long
way off.


3. (C) The two envoys commented that the King is feeling
more pressure from his desire for international legitimacy
than from the military effects of the suspension of
assistance. The UK and GOI agreed that the RNA is not yet
feeling any real pinch from the arms supply cutoff, and that
RNA protestations of dire shortfalls are intended to frighten
New Delhi into giving in before the Palace takes any major
steps. The British thought the focus of the GOI, HMG, and
USG should instead be on "putting the Maoists out of
business," rather than trying to build up the RNA. The
recent split in the Maoist Politburo has put them off balance
and weakened their leadership, but the democratic forces in
Nepal are unfortunately not in any position to take advantage
of this, the UK envoys stated.

Full Efforts Against the Maoists?
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4. (C) The British visitors suggested that the GOI could be
more aggressive in acting against Maoist leaders and assets
in India, but worried that New Delhi had not given strong
orders to the Indian police and intelligence services to act
against them. PolCouns noted that NSA MK Narayanan had
indicated that he was attentive to the problem of Maoists in
India, but the UK representatives questioned whether that
message was filtering down to operational levels.

Where Is This Heading?
--------------


5. (C) Asked by PolCouns whether the GOI had given any sense
of their plans vis-a-vis the crisis, the two envoys described
Saran as more focused than previously on the long-term view.
His immediate concern over the risk of losing influence in
Nepal to China or Pakistan had given way to a more strategic
consideration of what will work in Nepal to reverse the royal
power grab. In this regard, they reported, he seemed
impatient that the current GOI approach was not working and
was even pondering previously unthinkable ideas, including an
eventual deployment of UN peacekeepers to separate the forces
and restore conditions for democracy. "What we've done up to
now isn't working" to forge a long-term solution, Saran
reportedly commented. (Comment: We are dubious that the GOI
would admit to a UN role in Nepal, but note that this issue
did figure in the recent visit of UNSYG Kofi Annan. End
Comment)


6. (C) Discussing the efforts to schedule a trilateral
US-UK-India meeting during the upcoming visit of A/S Rocca,
the UK representatives reported Saran's comment that "we're
not ready for that yet." They speculated that entrenched
bureaucratic divisions within the MEA are the biggest
obstacle to holding formal three-way consultations, adding
that the idea was too foreign to offices accustomed to
strictly bilateral interactions.
Comment
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7. (C) The MEA considers the Deuba arrest as a slap in the
face of PM Manmohan Singh, and has dug in its heels against
rewarding the King for partial progress towards democracy.
As A/S Rocca prepares for her meeting with J/S Rae on May 9,
we expect the MEA to take a tough line on Nepal and to push
for a continuation of the suspension of all forms of military
assistance.
BLAKE