Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI3308
2005-05-02 13:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:  

INDIA UPBEAT WITH SHEINWALD ON CHINA AND PAKISTAN;

Tags:  PREL EAID PK IZ NP BG CH IN AF UK INDO PAK 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003308 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PK IZ NP BG CH IN AF UK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDIA UPBEAT WITH SHEINWALD ON CHINA AND PAKISTAN;
WORRIED ABOUT BANGLADESH; J&K CEASE-FIRE UNLIKELY


Classified By: Polcouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003308

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PK IZ NP BG CH IN AF UK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDIA UPBEAT WITH SHEINWALD ON CHINA AND PAKISTAN;
WORRIED ABOUT BANGLADESH; J&K CEASE-FIRE UNLIKELY


Classified By: Polcouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Aside from nuclear issues (septel) UK NSA
Sir Nigel Sheinwald's April 25-26 visit to New Delhi stuck to
familiar ground, with the PM, NSA Narayanan, and Foreign
Secretary Shyam Saran providing an encouraging backdrop for

SIPDIS
the September 7-8 India-EU and India-UK Summits. According
to the UK readout, PM Singh stressed his sincerity about
making peace with Pakistan, admitted that infiltration had
been reduced, but cautioned that the real test would come
when the mountain passes open in May. Narayanan said a
cease-fire in J&K was "unlikely given previous experiences."
Saran reiterated GOI willingness to assist Iraq draft its
constitution and to provide training in public
administration. On Nepal, Saran was in a wait-and-see mode,
while Narayanan said the Maoists had not been weakened at
all. Narayanan professed to be more concerned about
Bangladesh, commenting that a trilateral US/UK/India approach
was even more desirable there because of the possibility of
"Talebanization." The PM was pleased about India's progress
with Beijing, especially the parameters for resolving their
border dispute. The UK PM,s September visit to New Delhi
will come on the heels of an unprecedented number of visits
by almost every UK Cabinet Minister. The GOI noted
continuing interest in transit rights though Pakistan to
Afghanistan. See septel for Sheinwald's discussions on
nuclear energy and proliferation. End Summary.

Upbeat on Pakistan, but Cease-fire &Unlikely"
--------------


2. (C) Characterizing Sheinwald's discussions on Pakistan as
&upbeat,8 UK Polcouns Rob Macaire
(protect) said the GOI was pleased that Musharraf had
acknowledged the public's sentiment for peace in both
countries. Sheinwald's interlocutors explained their
"people-centered8 approach to the Kashmir problem,
maintaining that middle class Indian tourists were causing
"dramatic changes in the Valley." The PM stressed India,s

sincerity about making peace with Pakistan, admitted that
infiltration had been reduced, but cautioned that the real
test would come when the mountain passes open in May. New
Delhi promised troop reductions if infiltration decreased.
Sheinwald told the PM that HMG continues to press Pakistan to
stop its support for terrorism, and that London believes
Islamabad has begun to deliver. NSA Narayanan observed that
the ISI had taken no steps regarding Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT),
while terrorist groups were using new infiltration routes via
Nepal, Bangladesh and the sea. Narayanan asserted that human
rights violations had decreased in Kashmir, but when
Sheinwald asked about prospects for a cease-fire in J&K, the
Indian NSA replied that it was "unlikely, given previous
experiences."

Interest in Assistance to Iraq, But No New Commitments
-------------- --------------


3. (C) FS Saran reiterated GOI willingness to assist Iraq
draft its constitution and to provide training in public
administration. Sheinwald welcomed any help New Delhi could
offer the UN and expressed the hope that India would become
more involved, especially in the South and North where the
situation was more secure. Sheinwald also emphasized the
importance of sticking to the timetable for installing a
permanent government as outlined in the Transitional
Administrative Law (TAL). Saran responded that UNSYG Kofi
Annan's comments during his concurrent visit to India had
implied that the TAL timetable had already been superseded.
UK PolCouns added that during a meeting with the High
Commission earlier that week, GOI West Asia Envoy Chinmaya
Garekhan had offered nothing new about India's position in
Iraq.

UK Keen on Trilateral Consultations on Nepal
--------------


4. (C) Sheinwald appreciated the manner in which India, the
UK, and the United States were cooperating on Nepal, but
suggested to the GOI that further trilateral consultations
would be desirable. Saran was in a wait-and-see mode as to
whether the King would allow the State of Emergency to expire
on April 30, as scheduled. The FS did not foresee any
significant change in the security situation and predicted
that even a strengthened RNA could do no more than hold the
line. NSA Narayanan commented that the Maoists had not been
weakened at all. Sheinwald reportedly stressed that the King
must reverse his actions of February 1, or it would be
difficult for HMG to change its policy against military aid.

Transit to Afghanistan
--------------


5. (C) Sheinwald underlined to Saran the UK hope that India
will attend the Wilton Park conference on Afghanistan,
encouraged India's presence at the June 22 donors conference,
and asked whether India might do more on counternarcotics.
Saran asked the Brits to help India get transit rights
through Pakistan to Afghanistan, at least for
assistance-related items. He also indicated that India had
raised this issue bilaterally with Musharraf. Saran was
predictably skeptical on Taliban reintegration, warning that
Pakistan was pushing for this in order to rebuild influence.

Narayanan More Troubled by Bangladesh Than Nepal
-------------- ---


6. (C) Narayanan reportedly told Sheinwald that a trilateral
approach with the United States, UK and India was even more
desirable regarding Bangladesh, where "Talebanization is a
real possibility" and radical Islam could take root and
become an "epicenter of terrorism." Almost all Indian
insurgent groups had links to Bangladesh, the Indian NSA
asserted. New Delhi believes it has shown considerable
restraint in the Tripura region after several recent
incidents involving border forces, but had yet to see a
commensurate response from Bangladesh. Sheinwald responded
that HMG was monitoring the situation closely and welcomed
specific information on terrorism, regardless of the channel.

Indians Pleased About China
--------------


7. (C) Offering an upbeat account of New Delhi's
relationship with China, Saran was pleased that China had
formally recognized Sikkim as part of India during Premier
Wen's recent visit. The GOI believes it scored a victory
when the PRC agreed not to disturb "settled populations," a
reference to the "Guiding Principles" the two sides signed
governing their approach to resolving the disputed border.
The PM was also pleased with India's progress with Beijing,
especially the parameters for resolving their border
question. Asked for his assessment of U.S. policy, Saran
remarked that the U.S. did not appear to be pursuing a
containment strategy towards China, but was concerned about
China not playing by the rules. The PM evinced interest in
China's friction with Japan.

September Visit
--------------


8. (C) Macaire noted that the British PM,s anticipated
visit to New Delhi on September 7-8 will come on the heels of
an unprecedented number of trips to India by almost every UK
Cabinet Minister. He hoped that India could be convinced
through the UK Presidency to view the EU as "more than just a
trading partner." In addition to leading the EU Summit, the
UK Prime Minister's visit will include a full day of
bilateral business in New Delhi.


9. (U) Minimize considered.
BLAKE