PMO CONFIRMS MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO NEPAL STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003086

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2015
TAGS: PREL MASS EAID IN NP
SUBJECT: PMO CONFIRMS MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO NEPAL STILL
CONDITIONAL

REF: NEW DELHI 2951

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: Contrary to reports sourced to the King of
Nepal that India had reversed its suspension of military
supplies, the PMO has confirmed to us press reports that
India will only resume military assistance to Nepal in
exchange for concrete progress towards restoration of
democracy. The PM's unexpected decision to meet with
Gyanendra on April 23 suggests that the King said the right
things about democracy in his April 22 meeting with the
Indian Foreign Minister. We expect to learn more about where
the GOI stands on assistance conditionality after Foreign
Secretary Saran returns to New Delhi late on April 25. End

SIPDIS
Summary.

Surprise Announcement
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2. (C) After a week of speculation on whether PM Manmohan
Singh would even meet King Gyanendra at the Asian-African
Summit in Jakarta (reftel),both the PM and Foreign Minister
Natwar Singh met with the Nepalese monarch. The meeting with
the Foreign Minister appears to have been uneventful, and was
followed by the standard MEA recitation of India's hope for
the restoration of multi-party democracy. Following a
one-on-one meeting with the PM on April 23, Gyanendra made a
surprise statement to the Indian press indicating that the
Indian PM had promised to resume arms supplies to Nepal.
When asked about the statement at a later press conference,
the PM sidestepped the issue, saying only that "we will look
at these things in the proper perspective."


3. (C) MEA sources seemed to be caught by surprise by the
King's unqualified announcement. MEA Under Secretary (Nepal)
Manu Mahawar told us on April 25 that he had no information
about any change of policy on India's suspension of military
assistance. Meanwhile, the Communists denounced the idea,
calling the reported resumption of Indian arms supplies
"wrong and unjustified," and requesting that the government
consult with Parliament and clarify its position.

GOI Sticking to Democracy Conditions
--------------


4. (C) Attempting to clear up the confusion over what
exactly was promised, GOI sources on April 25 told the
traveling press on the PM's plane back from Indonesia that
Manmohan Singh had conditioned the resumption of arms on New
Delhi's long-stated demands for lifting political
restrictions, releasing detainees, and progress toward
restoration of democratic institutions. The GOI briefer
noted that the King had overlooked the fact that the
normalization of assistance was linked to a series of
specific steps the palace had to take. PMO Media Advisor
Sanjaya Baru confirmed to PolCouns on April 25 that the press
reports were accurate in describing a democratization quid
pro quo for the restoration of Indian aid.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) India appears to have turned a corner on its approach
to the King from one of angry isolation to quid pro quos
aimed at bringing Nepal back to the democratic path. In this
regard, the GOI approach appears to be converging with our
own. The fact that the PM decided to meet the King in
Jakarta, and the MEA's announcement that it would not object
to a rescheduled SAARC summit (after scrubbing the February
meeting in part because of Gyanendra's actions) demonstrate
India's desire to return to more normal relations with the
monarch. However, even as it recalculates its relation with
Gyanendra, the GOI appears to be maintaining its line on the
need for specific steps to justify a resumption of military
aid. On this, we expect to hear more about what the King
promised the Indians in Jakarta after Foreign Secretary Saran
returns from Indonesia late on April 25.
BLAKE