INDIA WARNS OF "REPERCUSSIONS" FOLLOWING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002968

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2015
TAGS: PREL MOPS BG IN
SUBJECT: INDIA WARNS OF "REPERCUSSIONS" FOLLOWING
BANGLADESH BORDER VIOLENCE

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt. Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: On April 16, India's Border Security Force
(BSF) engaged the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) on the border
between the Northeastern state of Tripura and Southeastern
Bangladesh in what the MEA has called a "fierce gun battle,"
which ultimately resulted in the death of an Indian officer.
The Bangladesh High Commission insisted that the BSF
instigated this "localized" incident which the BDG has since
diffused through a telephone call to the Indian Home Minister
and the appointment of an independent investigation
commission. While firing across the border is not uncommon,
the violence of this incident has incited a strong media and
official reaction, and exacerbates already frustrated
India-Bangladesh relations. End Summary.

Varying Versions and Motivations
--------------


2. (C) Indian and Bangladeshi versions of the incident
differ on what prompted the April 16 violence. According to
a press statement from the Indian High Commission in Dhaka,
which the MEA publicized, it was "actual fact" that
Bangladeshis abducted an Indian man and took him across the
border. Villagers notified a BSF unit which "tried to talk"
to the BDR, who began to fire at them. Commander Jeevan
Kumar had been stabbed and shot "from point blank range," the
statement explained. MEA Joint Secretary Neelam Deo
(Bangladesh, Sri Lanka) raised this incident in passing with
A/S Rocca on April 18, before allegations surfaced that the
Indian officer was shot point blank. The MEA emphasized that
the violence took place during the BDR and BSF Director
Generals' meeting in Dhaka for their biannual dialogue, the
spirit of which is "mutual understanding."


3. (C) The Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, however,
offered a different version, arguing to us that the Indians
had first killed a 10 year-old Bangladeshi girl, and that the
BDR retaliated. Counselor Riaz Hamidullah told Poloff on
April 20 that this aspect had been "totally suppressed," and
complained that "so much gets lost" in Indian reporting. An
AmConsul Calcutta contact who visited the site in Tripura
linked the shooting to illegal cross-border activity, arguing
that smugglers had instigated the kidnapping and violence,
while Institute for Conflict Management (ICM) Executive
Director Ajai Sahni told Poloff it was in protest of India's
fencing plan.

GOI "Agitated"
--------------


4. (C) On April 18 the MEA summoned BG acting High
Commissioner Masud Bin Momen to protest the incident, which
they considered premeditated, and to tell him that
"repercussions could not be ignored." Our interlocutors in
New Delhi and northeastern India have echoed this warning,
suggesting a strong reaction from the GOI. The ICM's Sahni
told Poloff that there would probably be "some kind of
consequences," such as economic pressure, but he did not
rule out the use of force. AmConsul Calcutta reports that
BSF officials are "very agitated," and there is speculation
in West Bengal that New Delhi might take "tough action."

High Commission Says BDG Has Taken the "Steam Off"
-------------- --------------


5. (C) The Bangladesh High Commission's Hamidullah was
confident that the situation had been diffused after the BDG
Home Minister telephoned Home Minister Shivraj Patil on April
19, and the BDG appointed an independent commission to
investigate the killing. This commission, Hamidullah stated,
will be required to submit a report in seven days. Denying
the MEA's assertion that the incident was pre-planned or
timed to coincide with a 2001 attack in Meghalaya, he
characterized the case as "localized."

Media Fired Up
--------------


6. (U) Highlighting the manner in which the Commander was
reportedly killed as "savage" and "barbaric," an "Indian
Express" editorial called for the GOI to abandon its
historically "restrained" approach, in favor of "an
appropriately calibrated punishment." An editorial in "The
Times of India" called for the US and India to "consult and
stay in close touch with each other to push subtly both
Bangladesh and Nepal to turn their backs on undemocratic
forces."

Comment
--------------

7. (C) While firing across the border is not uncommon, this
incident exacerbates already frustrated India-Bangladesh
relations. Emboldened by the firm stand they took after the
January assassination of former Finance Minister AMS Kibria
(canceling the Dhaka-hosted SAARC Summit),and perhaps egged
on by the virulent public reaction, the GOI's strong language
indicates persistent frustration with Dhaka. This irritation
is more likely to manifest as inaction, as opposed to
deliberate retaliation, on matters of interest to the BDG,
such as the SAARC Summit, transit with Nepal and Bhutan, or
supporting large-scale Indian investment in Bangladesh.


8. (U) This message includes contributions from AmConsul
Calcutta.
BLAKE