Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI2925
2005-04-19 11:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL AND BANGLADESH, PLEASED WITH MUSHARRAF VISIT
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002925
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN BG NP PK
SUBJECT: NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL AND BANGLADESH, PLEASED WITH MUSHARRAF VISIT
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002925
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN BG NP PK
SUBJECT: NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL AND BANGLADESH, PLEASED WITH MUSHARRAF VISIT
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: Meeting with SA A/S Rocca and Charge on April 18, Indian NSA MK Narayanan expressed concern about trends in Nepal and Bangladesh. On Nepal, the King had no policy to restore democracy or defeat the Maoists, which worried New Delhi because the insurgents were becoming more aggressive. The US, UK and India had to ensure that the King received the same message. Narayanan described Bangladesh as ""on the precipice,"" as a result of poor governance, the growth of Islamist influence, and the crisis in the Awami League. The NSA characterized the just-concluded visit of President Musharraf to India as a ""great love-love situation,"" commenting that the PM has concluded he can do business with Musharraf. Nevertheless, there was a ""certain fragility"" to the peace process, which a major terrorist attack could seriously set back. In such an event, India would have to conclude that the perpetrators had state backing, given continuing evidence of ISID support for terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. See Septel for US-India issues. End Summary.
Nepal: King has no Policy
--------------
2. (C) Leading off with a brief discussion on Nepal, Narayanan expressed exasperation that the King had done so little to restore democracy. New Delhi had seen little to indicate that the Palace has a policy either on democracy or to defeat the Maoists. The King seemed to be banking on the fact that the US, UK and India would bail him out if the Maoists became too strong. The Maoists had become more aggressive of late, and a better strategy was needed to counter them. The NSA emphasized the need to ""play it carefully"" with the King, adding that the US, UK and GOI must continue working closely together to ensure that the King received the same message from each government.
Bangladesh: ""On the Precipice""
--------------
3. (C) Describing Bangladesh as ""on the precipice,"" the NSA said rural areas were becoming ""badly saturated by radical Islamist forces,"" which presented a major challenge to fragile democratic structures and moderate Muslims. The OIJ had become very influential, and Jamaat was ""feeling very, very strong."" Meanwhile, the Awami League was in crisis -- losing its best people, offering no opposition to the governing BNP coalition, and unable to decide what to do next. New Delhi had little leverage with the current government, and what pressure it was able to exert was difficult to maintain, he stated.
4. (C) Narayanan expressed particular concern about the state of the Bangladeshi intellectual class, which had formerly enjoyed vigorous interaction with counterparts in India. The Chief Minister of West Bengal had related to him recently that he had not heard for months from the Bangladeshi poets and writers with whom he had had regular contact for decades, concluding that they have been ""almost totally silenced."" This was ""unnerving and could lead to a black hole."" The recent assassination of former Finance Minister AMS Kibria ""had a chilling effect on state structures, which are being hijacked."" The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) terrorist group was ""becoming one of the worst in Asia,"" and ""very deeply involved"" in India's Northeast, the NSA stated.
Pleased with Musharraf Visit
--------------
5. (C) On a positive note, Narayanan described the just-concluded visit of President Musharraf to India as a ""great love-love situation,"" joking that if it continues, ""a lot of my former colleagues (in the Intelligence Bureau) will be out of a job."" On Kashmir, the Pakistani President ""went with the flow, giving no deadlines for progress and indicating that Islamabad seems able to ""live with the script."" During a meeting with the Editors Guild, Musharraf went so far as to almost repeat the PM's language on the importance of economics and the opportunities to reach a lasting peace in South Asia.
6. (C) The NSA said PM Manmohan Singh has concluded that he can do business with Musharraf, but that there was a ""certain fragility"" to the peace process. One major terrorist attack could set back relations seriously. In such a case, the opposition would be up in arms against the government for trusting Musharraf, and the people would not accept it if Musharraf were to argue that he had no control over the jihadis involved. Given the extent of ISID support for the jihadi infrastructure in Pakistan, which continues to exist, India finds it very difficult to separate state actors from non-state actors. In the event of such an attack, New Delhi would have to conclude that the Pakistan government were involved. This concern about a major terrorist attack was the only caveat the PM had expressed about Musharraf's visit, the NSA stressed, adding that in such an case, ""we will come to you if we need help."" A/S Rocca responded by recalling that the Secretary, during her March 16 visit to New Delhi, had pledged to continue pressure on Pakistan regarding cross-border terrorism.
India Still Considering Equipment Offer
--------------
7. (C) Emphasizing USG interest in the safety of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus, A/S Rocca reminded Narayanan of our outstanding April 1 offer of explosive detection equipment to help protect the bus service. The NSA indicated that he was aware of the issue, but did not know where the matter stood in the bureaucracy. He appreciated the offer, commenting that ""we live in mortal dread of something happening to the bus,"" and said he would check on it.
8. (U) A/S Rocca cleared this cable.
BLAKE "
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN BG NP PK
SUBJECT: NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT NEPAL AND BANGLADESH, PLEASED WITH MUSHARRAF VISIT
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: Meeting with SA A/S Rocca and Charge on April 18, Indian NSA MK Narayanan expressed concern about trends in Nepal and Bangladesh. On Nepal, the King had no policy to restore democracy or defeat the Maoists, which worried New Delhi because the insurgents were becoming more aggressive. The US, UK and India had to ensure that the King received the same message. Narayanan described Bangladesh as ""on the precipice,"" as a result of poor governance, the growth of Islamist influence, and the crisis in the Awami League. The NSA characterized the just-concluded visit of President Musharraf to India as a ""great love-love situation,"" commenting that the PM has concluded he can do business with Musharraf. Nevertheless, there was a ""certain fragility"" to the peace process, which a major terrorist attack could seriously set back. In such an event, India would have to conclude that the perpetrators had state backing, given continuing evidence of ISID support for terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan. See Septel for US-India issues. End Summary.
Nepal: King has no Policy
--------------
2. (C) Leading off with a brief discussion on Nepal, Narayanan expressed exasperation that the King had done so little to restore democracy. New Delhi had seen little to indicate that the Palace has a policy either on democracy or to defeat the Maoists. The King seemed to be banking on the fact that the US, UK and India would bail him out if the Maoists became too strong. The Maoists had become more aggressive of late, and a better strategy was needed to counter them. The NSA emphasized the need to ""play it carefully"" with the King, adding that the US, UK and GOI must continue working closely together to ensure that the King received the same message from each government.
Bangladesh: ""On the Precipice""
--------------
3. (C) Describing Bangladesh as ""on the precipice,"" the NSA said rural areas were becoming ""badly saturated by radical Islamist forces,"" which presented a major challenge to fragile democratic structures and moderate Muslims. The OIJ had become very influential, and Jamaat was ""feeling very, very strong."" Meanwhile, the Awami League was in crisis -- losing its best people, offering no opposition to the governing BNP coalition, and unable to decide what to do next. New Delhi had little leverage with the current government, and what pressure it was able to exert was difficult to maintain, he stated.
4. (C) Narayanan expressed particular concern about the state of the Bangladeshi intellectual class, which had formerly enjoyed vigorous interaction with counterparts in India. The Chief Minister of West Bengal had related to him recently that he had not heard for months from the Bangladeshi poets and writers with whom he had had regular contact for decades, concluding that they have been ""almost totally silenced."" This was ""unnerving and could lead to a black hole."" The recent assassination of former Finance Minister AMS Kibria ""had a chilling effect on state structures, which are being hijacked."" The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) terrorist group was ""becoming one of the worst in Asia,"" and ""very deeply involved"" in India's Northeast, the NSA stated.
Pleased with Musharraf Visit
--------------
5. (C) On a positive note, Narayanan described the just-concluded visit of President Musharraf to India as a ""great love-love situation,"" joking that if it continues, ""a lot of my former colleagues (in the Intelligence Bureau) will be out of a job."" On Kashmir, the Pakistani President ""went with the flow, giving no deadlines for progress and indicating that Islamabad seems able to ""live with the script."" During a meeting with the Editors Guild, Musharraf went so far as to almost repeat the PM's language on the importance of economics and the opportunities to reach a lasting peace in South Asia.
6. (C) The NSA said PM Manmohan Singh has concluded that he can do business with Musharraf, but that there was a ""certain fragility"" to the peace process. One major terrorist attack could set back relations seriously. In such a case, the opposition would be up in arms against the government for trusting Musharraf, and the people would not accept it if Musharraf were to argue that he had no control over the jihadis involved. Given the extent of ISID support for the jihadi infrastructure in Pakistan, which continues to exist, India finds it very difficult to separate state actors from non-state actors. In the event of such an attack, New Delhi would have to conclude that the Pakistan government were involved. This concern about a major terrorist attack was the only caveat the PM had expressed about Musharraf's visit, the NSA stressed, adding that in such an case, ""we will come to you if we need help."" A/S Rocca responded by recalling that the Secretary, during her March 16 visit to New Delhi, had pledged to continue pressure on Pakistan regarding cross-border terrorism.
India Still Considering Equipment Offer
--------------
7. (C) Emphasizing USG interest in the safety of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus, A/S Rocca reminded Narayanan of our outstanding April 1 offer of explosive detection equipment to help protect the bus service. The NSA indicated that he was aware of the issue, but did not know where the matter stood in the bureaucracy. He appreciated the offer, commenting that ""we live in mortal dread of something happening to the bus,"" and said he would check on it.
8. (U) A/S Rocca cleared this cable.
BLAKE "