Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI2884
2005-04-18 12:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
INDO-PAK MINI-SUMMIT BURIES ""GHOST OF AGRA""
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002884
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK MINI-SUMMIT BURIES ""GHOST OF AGRA""
REF: NEW DELHI 2866
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002884
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK MINI-SUMMIT BURIES ""GHOST OF AGRA""
REF: NEW DELHI 2866
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: India and Pakistan exorcised the ghost of the (failed) 2001 Agra Summit during President Musharraf's April 16-18 visit to New Delhi, with a solid list of CBMs, muted discussion on Kashmir, and very positive personal interactions (with more high-level visits possible this year). Both sides' use of common terms and complimentary language, particularly regarding a ""soft border"" on Kashmir, was new. Agreeing that the two sides had an historic opportunity to create a durable peace, they declared that the process of rapprochement was ""irreversible."" Taking place with the backdrop of a successful nine-city tour by the Pakistan cricket team (which trounced India in the one-day match that Musharraf attended) and a legion of positive people-to-people stories centered on the visiting Pakistani cricket fans/tourists, this mini-summit was a significant milestone in Indo-Pak relations and a testimony to the PM's commitment to normalization with Islamabad. End Summary.
More Deliverables Than Originally Expected
--------------
2. (U) Exceeding the cautious expectations that the GOI set in the run-up to the summit (Reftel),PM Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf agreed on a number of new CBMs in addition to advancing other issues that have been on the table for some time. Building on the two Indo-Pak recent summits (January 6 and September 24),PM Singh listed the following agreements in the joint statement released on April 18, after an overnight delay to resolve differences:
-- Increasing the frequency of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service (to an unannounced level) and adding additional trans-Kashmir routes to include Poonch-Rawalkote;
-- Expanding cross-LOC transit to include trade, pilgrimage, and cultural exchanges;
-- Creating a mechanism to allow ""divided families"" (i.e.
with members living on both sides of the LOC to meet (details are unclear, but a reference to meeting points along the LOC);
-- Pushing for an ""early start"" on the proposed Lahore-Amritsar-Nankana Sahib bus links (particularly relevant to Sikhs who wish to visit a shrine located in Pakistani Punjab);
-- Committing to open the Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link by January 1, 2006 (pushing back the expected date of completion from the original October 2005 target);
-- Setting a January 1, 2006 deadline to open consulates-general in Mumbai and Karachi;
-- Agreeing to continue the Composite Dialogue talks, with the foreign ministries to work out the schedule;
-- Seeking to alleviate the situation of Indian and Pakistani prisoners who have served their sentences in each other's jails but have not yet been repatriated;
-- ""Immediately"" convening ""the existing institutions"" to ""expeditiously"" resolve the Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek issues;
-- Directing the two Petroleum Ministers to meet by May to discuss common issues including gas pipelines (Iran-Pakistan-India and Turkmenistan-Pakistan-India); and
-- Setting up a private sector Joint Business Council to intensify trade ties and reviving the official Joint Economic Commission, which last met in 1989, in order to stimulate economic exchanges to cooperation.
-- The PM also accepted in principle Musharraf's invitation to visit Pakistan. In addition, BJP Leader of the Opposition LK Advani accepted an invitation to visit Pakistan in June.
Musharraf also invited Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.
The details and timings are to be worked out by the respective foreign ministries.
3. (C) Notably absent from this list, and opening the PM to potential BJP criticism, was the omission of an explicit reaffirmation of earlier Pakistani assurances on cross-border terrorism. The joint statement stated simply that the leaders ""would not allow terrorism to impede the peace process."" This Indian climb-down on the language regarding cross-border infiltration is one more data point for those who are skeptical of Manmohan Singh's willingness to make concessions in furtherance of the peace process. We will report septel on the story behind this language, which reportedly was the reason for the overnight delay in releasing the joint statement.
Keeping Kashmir Quiet
--------------
4. (C) As expected, President Musharraf dwelled at some length on Kashmir, but the tone was by all accounts positive and absent of rancor. The PM reportedly couched his response in terms of what he cannot (vice will not) deliver (""I cannot offer you any adjustment of the border, I have no mandate to do that,"" restating his position at their September 2004 meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA). Musharraf seems to have accepted this position, as reflected in the Joint Statement which referred merely to continued discussions on J&K. The CBMs were heavily Kashmir-oriented and a testament to the success of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus in enabling spin-off CBMs.
Consolidating the Personal Touch
--------------
5. (C) The two leaders exchanged numerous gifts, which highlighted the unusually strong personal connections between the PM and the Pakistani President. Singh presented Musharraf with a painting of the President's pre-Partition family home in Delhi and birth certificates for Musharraf and his siblings who were born there. In return, Musharraf presented an engraving to the PM and, to Opposition Leader LK Advani, a book of photographs of Advani in Pakistan from his school days in Karachi (at St. Patrick's, which Musharraf also attended) through adulthood. Similar bonhomie was visible during the Advani meeting, and was particularly useful in burying the ghosts of Agra, as Advani was blamed by some for having helped scuttle that summit.
Common Vocabulary Emerging
--------------
6. (C) Of particular interest was the GOI's and GOP's use of a similar vocabulary to describe their policy objectives for Kashmir. Echoing terms such as ""soft borders,"" using the LOC as a ""bridge,"" and seeking ""out-of-the-box ideas,"" Musharraf, in the eyes of the GOI and the Indian public, presented himself as a far cry from the man obsessed with Kashmir when he met PM Vajpayee in Agra in 2001. The April 18 joint statement went even further than Musharraf's pre-summit interview by defining the peace process, in the eyes of both the GOI and the GOP, as ""irreversible"" (on April 14, he had termed it ""fairly irreversible"").
Saying (and Not Saying) the Right Things
--------------
7. (C) Both Musharraf and Singh displayed skill at making each other comfortable over the weekend with friendly comments and compliments:
-- Musharraf reiterated his Reuters interview comment that the Delhi meeting was ""180 degrees"" from the failed 2001 Agra Summit;
-- He telegraphed his commitment to the dialogue process before he arrived by declaring that ""the period of conflict management is over, we have entered an era of conflict resolution.""
-- He also reiterated his April 6 condemnation of attack against the Indian passengers for the inaugural Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus trip and labeled it as ""terrorism.""
-- His references on TV to ""Jammu and Kashmir,"" rather than the more vague ""Kashmir,"" were viewed by some as an implicit acceptance that Pakistan would move away from claiming the entire state for itself.
-- Singh appealed to Musharraf's personal side by remarking that he found the Pakistani President's mother ""utterly charming"" and ""your son was quite a hit with young people here.""
8. (C) As important to the atmospherics were the comments left unsaid. Accusations of Islamabad promoting cross-border terrorism and of human rights abuses in J&K fell by the wayside. Musharraf lobbied India to act ""magnanimously"" as the larger country, on the grounds that when smaller countries compromise, their leaders are accused of knuckling under pressure. The joint statement reflected an unusual attempt at compromise.
Comment
--------------
9. (C) This interaction made no progress on a number of key issues (for example, the Baglihar Dam impasse and the final shape and identity of ""Kashmir""),but the constructive and incremental approach is now delivering benefits to Kashmiris while simultaneously building and strengthening the ""peace constituency."" On Baglihar the GOI reportedly restated its call for bilateral dialogue. We will follow up with MEA. Indians have grown more comfortable accepting Musharraf as a partner in the peace process -- his public statements here immeasurably improved his stature -- although a hard core of skeptics remain who continue to anticipate the next Kargil will scuttle the current bonhomie. This mini-summit was well organized to deliver results, and is a testimony to the PM's personal leadership on Indo-Pak rapprochement.
BLAKE "
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER IN PK INDO PAK
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK MINI-SUMMIT BURIES ""GHOST OF AGRA""
REF: NEW DELHI 2866
Classified By: Charge Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: India and Pakistan exorcised the ghost of the (failed) 2001 Agra Summit during President Musharraf's April 16-18 visit to New Delhi, with a solid list of CBMs, muted discussion on Kashmir, and very positive personal interactions (with more high-level visits possible this year). Both sides' use of common terms and complimentary language, particularly regarding a ""soft border"" on Kashmir, was new. Agreeing that the two sides had an historic opportunity to create a durable peace, they declared that the process of rapprochement was ""irreversible."" Taking place with the backdrop of a successful nine-city tour by the Pakistan cricket team (which trounced India in the one-day match that Musharraf attended) and a legion of positive people-to-people stories centered on the visiting Pakistani cricket fans/tourists, this mini-summit was a significant milestone in Indo-Pak relations and a testimony to the PM's commitment to normalization with Islamabad. End Summary.
More Deliverables Than Originally Expected
--------------
2. (U) Exceeding the cautious expectations that the GOI set in the run-up to the summit (Reftel),PM Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf agreed on a number of new CBMs in addition to advancing other issues that have been on the table for some time. Building on the two Indo-Pak recent summits (January 6 and September 24),PM Singh listed the following agreements in the joint statement released on April 18, after an overnight delay to resolve differences:
-- Increasing the frequency of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service (to an unannounced level) and adding additional trans-Kashmir routes to include Poonch-Rawalkote;
-- Expanding cross-LOC transit to include trade, pilgrimage, and cultural exchanges;
-- Creating a mechanism to allow ""divided families"" (i.e.
with members living on both sides of the LOC to meet (details are unclear, but a reference to meeting points along the LOC);
-- Pushing for an ""early start"" on the proposed Lahore-Amritsar-Nankana Sahib bus links (particularly relevant to Sikhs who wish to visit a shrine located in Pakistani Punjab);
-- Committing to open the Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link by January 1, 2006 (pushing back the expected date of completion from the original October 2005 target);
-- Setting a January 1, 2006 deadline to open consulates-general in Mumbai and Karachi;
-- Agreeing to continue the Composite Dialogue talks, with the foreign ministries to work out the schedule;
-- Seeking to alleviate the situation of Indian and Pakistani prisoners who have served their sentences in each other's jails but have not yet been repatriated;
-- ""Immediately"" convening ""the existing institutions"" to ""expeditiously"" resolve the Siachen Glacier and Sir Creek issues;
-- Directing the two Petroleum Ministers to meet by May to discuss common issues including gas pipelines (Iran-Pakistan-India and Turkmenistan-Pakistan-India); and
-- Setting up a private sector Joint Business Council to intensify trade ties and reviving the official Joint Economic Commission, which last met in 1989, in order to stimulate economic exchanges to cooperation.
-- The PM also accepted in principle Musharraf's invitation to visit Pakistan. In addition, BJP Leader of the Opposition LK Advani accepted an invitation to visit Pakistan in June.
Musharraf also invited Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi.
The details and timings are to be worked out by the respective foreign ministries.
3. (C) Notably absent from this list, and opening the PM to potential BJP criticism, was the omission of an explicit reaffirmation of earlier Pakistani assurances on cross-border terrorism. The joint statement stated simply that the leaders ""would not allow terrorism to impede the peace process."" This Indian climb-down on the language regarding cross-border infiltration is one more data point for those who are skeptical of Manmohan Singh's willingness to make concessions in furtherance of the peace process. We will report septel on the story behind this language, which reportedly was the reason for the overnight delay in releasing the joint statement.
Keeping Kashmir Quiet
--------------
4. (C) As expected, President Musharraf dwelled at some length on Kashmir, but the tone was by all accounts positive and absent of rancor. The PM reportedly couched his response in terms of what he cannot (vice will not) deliver (""I cannot offer you any adjustment of the border, I have no mandate to do that,"" restating his position at their September 2004 meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA). Musharraf seems to have accepted this position, as reflected in the Joint Statement which referred merely to continued discussions on J&K. The CBMs were heavily Kashmir-oriented and a testament to the success of the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus in enabling spin-off CBMs.
Consolidating the Personal Touch
--------------
5. (C) The two leaders exchanged numerous gifts, which highlighted the unusually strong personal connections between the PM and the Pakistani President. Singh presented Musharraf with a painting of the President's pre-Partition family home in Delhi and birth certificates for Musharraf and his siblings who were born there. In return, Musharraf presented an engraving to the PM and, to Opposition Leader LK Advani, a book of photographs of Advani in Pakistan from his school days in Karachi (at St. Patrick's, which Musharraf also attended) through adulthood. Similar bonhomie was visible during the Advani meeting, and was particularly useful in burying the ghosts of Agra, as Advani was blamed by some for having helped scuttle that summit.
Common Vocabulary Emerging
--------------
6. (C) Of particular interest was the GOI's and GOP's use of a similar vocabulary to describe their policy objectives for Kashmir. Echoing terms such as ""soft borders,"" using the LOC as a ""bridge,"" and seeking ""out-of-the-box ideas,"" Musharraf, in the eyes of the GOI and the Indian public, presented himself as a far cry from the man obsessed with Kashmir when he met PM Vajpayee in Agra in 2001. The April 18 joint statement went even further than Musharraf's pre-summit interview by defining the peace process, in the eyes of both the GOI and the GOP, as ""irreversible"" (on April 14, he had termed it ""fairly irreversible"").
Saying (and Not Saying) the Right Things
--------------
7. (C) Both Musharraf and Singh displayed skill at making each other comfortable over the weekend with friendly comments and compliments:
-- Musharraf reiterated his Reuters interview comment that the Delhi meeting was ""180 degrees"" from the failed 2001 Agra Summit;
-- He telegraphed his commitment to the dialogue process before he arrived by declaring that ""the period of conflict management is over, we have entered an era of conflict resolution.""
-- He also reiterated his April 6 condemnation of attack against the Indian passengers for the inaugural Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus trip and labeled it as ""terrorism.""
-- His references on TV to ""Jammu and Kashmir,"" rather than the more vague ""Kashmir,"" were viewed by some as an implicit acceptance that Pakistan would move away from claiming the entire state for itself.
-- Singh appealed to Musharraf's personal side by remarking that he found the Pakistani President's mother ""utterly charming"" and ""your son was quite a hit with young people here.""
8. (C) As important to the atmospherics were the comments left unsaid. Accusations of Islamabad promoting cross-border terrorism and of human rights abuses in J&K fell by the wayside. Musharraf lobbied India to act ""magnanimously"" as the larger country, on the grounds that when smaller countries compromise, their leaders are accused of knuckling under pressure. The joint statement reflected an unusual attempt at compromise.
Comment
--------------
9. (C) This interaction made no progress on a number of key issues (for example, the Baglihar Dam impasse and the final shape and identity of ""Kashmir""),but the constructive and incremental approach is now delivering benefits to Kashmiris while simultaneously building and strengthening the ""peace constituency."" On Baglihar the GOI reportedly restated its call for bilateral dialogue. We will follow up with MEA. Indians have grown more comfortable accepting Musharraf as a partner in the peace process -- his public statements here immeasurably improved his stature -- although a hard core of skeptics remain who continue to anticipate the next Kargil will scuttle the current bonhomie. This mini-summit was well organized to deliver results, and is a testimony to the PM's personal leadership on Indo-Pak rapprochement.
BLAKE "