"WE ARE COMMUNISTS, BUT WE ARE NOT FOOLS:" CPI(M)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 002470

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR IN
SUBJECT: "WE ARE COMMUNISTS, BUT WE ARE NOT FOOLS:" CPI(M)
LEADERSHIP UNLIKELY TO END SUPPORT FOR THE UPA

REF: A. NEW DELHI 01710

B. NEW DELHI 1854

Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) Summary: The Communist Party of India-Marxist, the
CPI(M) or CPM, the most organized and important member of
India's Left Front (LF),will debate whether to change its
leadership at its April 6-12 Party Congress. The CPI (M)
patriarch, Harkishen Singh Surjeet, who steered the party to
its pro-Congress stance, is 89 years old and in very poor
health, and under pressure to step down after 13 years in
office. Rumors persist, however, that Surjeet is not yet
ready to relinquish the mantle, despite being almost totally
blind and deaf. Prakesh Karat, the person most likely to
replace him, is ideologically a Marxist hardliner who
espouses a more aggressive posture toward the United
Progressive Alliance (UPA). Under his leadership, the party
would likely have a more contentious relationship with the
Congress leadership. Despite this, his ascension would not
significantly alter the party's relatively moderate stance
and willingness to support the UPA coalition government over
the near term, as he would be restrained by more moderate,
experienced party heavyweights. India's Communist parties
enjoy newfound power and influence as a result of their
association with the UPA, and are unlikely to do anything to
jeopardize it, such as withdrawing support from the UPA,
which would bring down the government and provide an opening
for the BJP to return to power. End Summary.

"We Are Marxists, But We Are Not Fools"
--------------


2. (C) Front-runner Prakash Karat, despite his opposition to
direct foreign investment and privatization, is unlikely to
change the pragmatic, calibrated CPI (M) approach to politics
that accommodates ideological differences at local, regional,
and national levels (Ref A). Recognizing that it cannot at
present replace capitalism with a socialist or communist
economic system, the CPI (M) is focusing on more immediate
goals, such as ensuring that the Center,s reforms do not "go
to far," and that India's economic development does not
"leave the poor and powerless behind." Communist leaders
with actual governing experience, such as West Bengal,s
Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, are open to foreign
and private investment for infrastructure development in the
state as long as it "takes care of the working class."
Bhattacharjee, for example, has in the past asked New Delhi
to offer special incentives for foreign investment in six
industrially backwards districts of North Bengal. His
government also has worked with industrial houses to support
the expansion West Bengal's machine tool and electronics
sectors, and "joined hands" with foreign investors to
develop ports, airports, and roads.


3. (C) Karat, by contrast, is a lifelong CPI (M) functionary
and has never run for political office -- he has never even
seen the inside of the "bourgeois Parliament" -- or been
responsible for the day-to-day functioning of government.
This increases the likelihood that he will be more amenable
to attempts by Marxist pragmatists to temper his ideological
zeal when faced with the day to day running of the party.
Moreover, because of Communist discipline, Karat has no
choice but to follow the dictates of the party if it decides
to continue along the moderate path.


4. (C) Left sources have told Poloff that the CPI(M) does
not have a provision to force a Party president from office,
and that Surjeet has indicated that he does not want to step
down. There is also considerable speculation that the
ambitious Sitaram Yechury is the choice of powerful party
moderates such as Jyoti Basu. As a "cadre based" party, the
CPI(M) prefers not to conduct party disputes in public. If
it cannot resolve the Yechury/Karat rivalry behind the scenes
and out of the public eye, there may be a concensus to keep
Surjeet on. Several CPI(M) watchers and Forward Block MP
Subrata Bose told Poloff that Karat is not yet ready to take
the helm, does not have the stature and widespread respect of
Surjeet, and is unlikely to be as adept at managing
Communist/Congress relations, and needs several years of
further experience.

Seeking to Expand Its Support Base
--------------


4. (SBU) If Karat were to take charge, he would likely would
attempt to harness the Communists, growing power and popular
momentum to push its immediate agenda and broaden its support
base beyond the "red forts" of West Bengal, Kerala, and
Tripura. CPI(M) experience in West Bengal, where it has
"creatively applied Marxism to India's society," has ensured
its survival there for the last 27 years, and it is looking
to build on its success, while adapting to a post-Cold War
world, and redefining "the struggle." In this new
environment, the "class enemy" is no longer "capitalist
imperialism," but the neo-liberal economic and development
policies espoused by the US and "captive" multilateral
lending institutions such as the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund. The Communists are also moving
away from a combative approach and towards a commitment to
parliamentary and electoral politics, appealing to a wider
audience.


5. (SBU) Former West Bengal Chief Minister and CPI(M)
heavyweight Jyoti Basu admitted that the "world has changed
where militant trade unionism has no place," and said the
Communist parties were wrong in allowing aggressive labor
movements during the 1980-90s. According to Basu, Communists
also recognize that India's traditional caste struggle
overlaps with the socialist emphasis on "class struggle," and
that Communists can use caste to develop a wider base of
support. The party has also made it clear that it will
continue alliances with non-Communist parties -- for specific
electoral purposes -- as it did with Congress in Maharashtra,
the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and the RJD,
Congress, and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in Jharkhand.
CPI(M) State Secretary for West Bengal and influential
Politburo member Anil Biswas told US officials the CPI(M) was
"reaching out" to small, regional parties who "have no
ideology, unlike the CPI(M)" to form coalitions, and that the
party was focusing on developing party structure and bases in
"other areas," such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Kashmir.


6. (U) Karat would also try to take advantage of Congress's
recent election gaffes to siphon off disillusioned defectors
from other parties (Ref B). Bihar and Jharkhand, whose
dominant political parties have been discredited in the
recent state elections, are fertile territory for the CPI(M).
Communist parties have been very successful in recruiting
new members on university campuses, but have trouble keeping
them after they graduate and enter the workforce. They are
conducting an internal review to devise an effective policy
to retain membership. Biswas acknowleged that the CPI(M)
"needed change" and "to bring up" new members.

Challenges Ahead for CPI (M)
--------------


7. (C) The untested and inexperienced young leadership --
neither Karat nor Politburo member Sitram Yechury have actual
governing experience -- may have trouble bringing the CPI(M)
into the next generation. Older Leftist leaders such as
Forward Bloc MP Subrata Bose and CPI(M) icon Jyoti Basu are
concerned that Karat will not be as adept is handling the
Congress or even the Left Front coalition as well as Surjeet.
Basu, however, predicted to Poloff that "he will grow." The
CPI(M) has rudimentary party organization in most of India's
urban areas and limited appeal outside of its traditional
strongholds. Once a favorite of the middle class because of
its anti-establishment stance and relatively clean image, the
party has had difficulty maintaining its appeal in an era
when rapid economic expansion presents new opportunities for
the urban middle class. According to a leading Kolkata
businessman, the trade unions, once a breeding ground for
future Communist leaders, no longer attract the "talent,"
making it difficult for the Communist parties to groom a new
generation of leaders. Embassy contacts also point out that,
because the Communist parties are unwilling to join the
Central government, they are not an "attractive option" for
budding leaders.


8. (U) Karat and others also face a challenge from Naxalites
and Maoist parties, which strongly emphasize rural and
low-caste recruitment. Karat and the new generation leaders
have advocated that the CPI(M) and other mainstream Communist
parties expand into the rural areas, where Maoists and
Naxalites have laid the foundation by cultivating support and
educating the rural poor about Marxism.

Congress/Communist Coalition
--------------


9. (SBU) Some Congress insiders are concerned that should
the ideologically more aggressive Karat become party leader,
the CPI(M) could withdraw support for the UPA alliance.
Surjeet, who steered the party to a pro-Congress stance, was
primarily focused on keeping the BJP out of power, with
Communist cohesion a secondary factor. Karat would place
more emphasis on Communist cohesion and developing a more
united Left Front alternative than worrying about a BJP
resurgence, raising concerns that he will be less willing to
placate the UPA. Senior Communist leaders hope Karat will
moderate his stance should he become party president, and
would probably try to rein him in if they believed he was
taking the Party and the LF in the wrong direction.


10. (C) Rajat Roy, Associate Editor of the West Bengali
daily Anandazabar Patrika and a long-time Left observer, told
Poloff that although in the near term Karat would not do
anything to bring down the UPA government, over the long run,
Karat,s appointment would negatively impact the
Left-Congress relationship. Karat would likely rally the
hardline faction and marginalize the older, more moderate
cadres. Roy noted that Karat was a very experienced party
insider and could "control the party" and put his supporters
into the influential Politburo. This could potentially
weaken the CPI(M) over the long run, as dogmatic hardliners
would be less willing to "change with the times" as Basu,
Bhattacharjee, and Surjeet have done.


11. (C) Roy also commented that Karat "doesn't like to deal
with the Congress" and the role of intermediary, usually
performed by the ailing Surjeet, would be delegated to Sitram
Yechury, who "loves the camera and acting as interlocutor."
Roy posited that the combination of Karat (the private power)
and Yechury (the public face) would be good for the CPI(M).

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Karat's ascension may make CPI(M)/UPA cooperation
more difficult, but is unlikely to result in a separation in
the near future. The party leadership makes a clear
distinction between the political and economic agenda of the
Congress coalition, disparaging Congress commitment to
"neo-liberalism," while supporting Congress secularism. This
was typified by CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP Nilotpal Basu who
stated that "there is a disconnect between Congress President
Sonia Gandhi's vision and the policies of the Government."


13. (C) Despite its "faults," the Communists overwhelmingly
prefer secular Congress ideology to that of the "communalist
rightists" of the BJP. The CPI(M)'s view of Congress as a
treacherous ally to be kept in check through constant
brinkmanship is a philosophy that will play to Karat,s
hardline positions. From the UPA side, the PM has developed
a symbiotic relationship with the Left, believing it balances
against over-zealous reformers, and has even incorporated
some LF ideas into UPA governance.


14. (C) Should the Left become too problematic, however, the
PM may become more isolated and the UPA may reassess its
strategy. The CPI(M) leadership believes that should Karat
try to take the party in an unpopular direction, he can be
reined in. The Communist parties are renowned for their
party discipline. Although they may have contentious
backroom debates, Karat will ultimately follow party
dictates.

Bio Data For Prakash Karat
--------------


15. (SBU) Karat is a powerful member of the CPI(M) Politburo
and one of India's best-known Leftists. The relatively young
(approximately 56 years old) and articulate CPI(M) spokesman
has climbed to the upper ranks of a party dominated by
octogenarians. Karat is now seen, along with Sitaram
Yechury, as a leadership candidate to succeed aging party
heavyweights such as General Secretary Harkishan Singh
Surjeet and former West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu.
Ideologically a Marxist hardliner, Karat is a consensus
candidate, and his election would represent an attempt to
placate the important, but more dogmatic, Kerala
constituency, which views Sitaram Yechury as too moderate.


16. (SBU) Karat is an ideologue opposed to foreign direct
investment, privatization, and "interference" in Indian
affairs by the United States and multilateral lending
agencies such as the World Bank and IMF and remains focused
on class struggle. Indicative of his lack of interest in
developing a positive relationship with the United States, he
has reportedly stated that "India should not act as a US
agent in South Asia." Karat did not support the Communist
decision to back the UPA. Having never contested an election
or held an government position, his hardline views are not
tempered by executive experience, unlike many of the
Communist leaders in West Bengal, who are more open to
foreign investment in infrastructure in the state.


17. (SBU) Born into a middle class Hindu family of Kerala.
He graduated from Madras Christian College before earning a
M.A. in economics from Edinburgh University, Scotland. After
returning to India, he attended the Jawaharlal Nehru
University (JNU),then the Mecca of Indian Marxists, as an
M.Phil/Ph.D. student, but did not complete his degree. Drawn
to politics since his campus days in Chennai, Karat was
elected President of the JNU Students Union in the 1970s
before plunging into full-time CPI (M) politics. He was
initiated into politics by communist veteran, A.K. Gopalan,
and was closely associated with the first Communist Chief
Minister of Kerala, E.M.S. Namboodaripad. He has authored
and edited several books, including "World To Win," a volume
of essays explaining the relevance of the communist
manifesto. Karat is married to Brinda Karat, a well-known
feminist leader. He described by US officials as urbane,
sophisticated, and a good organizer.
MULFORD