INDIA WARMING TO SOUTH ASIA INITIATIVE, AND F-16S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002301

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2015
TAGS: PREL IN NSSP
SUBJECT: INDIA WARMING TO SOUTH ASIA INITIATIVE, AND F-16S


Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: After initial knee-jerk negative reactions
in the media, Indian responses to the March 25 announcement
of the administration's new strategy for South Asia have
become more positive, with the MEA going to unprecedented
lengths to shape coverage and senior Indian officials largely
neutral to favorable. Although the PM expressed "great
disappointment," the MEA convoked senior foreign affairs
correspondents at midnight on March 25 to ensure that the
initiative was properly understood and received positive
spin. Defense Minister Mukherjee commented that India was
open to the offer, and two senior military officers
downplayed any effect on the regional balance of power.
Former Foreign Secretary Shashank called the initiative a
positive development that should be seen in the larger
context of US-India collaboration. Media commentary has
predictably focused on F-16s, but the potential for US-India
civil nuclear cooperation has been well received. As debate
unfolds, the following positive themes are emerging:

-- India gets more than Pakistan does;
-- Dr. Rice has had a stronger impact on US-India ties than
any Secretary in history;
-- An unprecedented breakthrough in US-India relations;
-- US to help India become a world power;
-- Not to worry about F-16s, Sukhois are better;
-- Pakistan has ballistic missiles, so it matters less if
F-16s carry nuclear weapons;
-- F-16 issue is not new; "we knew it was coming";
-- India needs to get beyond its Pakistan obsession; and
-- The US does not sell F-18s to other countries, but may to
India.


2. (C) Negative commentary has come primarily from
traditionally anti-American journalists, but some appear to
have drawn on GOI sources, stressing the aircraft's nuclear
delivery capabilities, its uselessness in anti-terrorist
operations, its adverse impact on the security environment in
South Asia and potential to fuel a new arms race, and its
high cost (diverting funds from economic and social needs).
Offers of cooperation are "fig leaves" and "sweet
assurances," and India should be careful about Washington's
efforts to wean India from its independent foreign policy and
"old friends" and time-tested suppliers. The opposition BJP
predicts a negative affect the Indo-Pak peace process and on
US-India relations. The early spin has been more positive
than we expected and has helped to shape the terms of the
debate. End Summary.


3. (C) Aware of the negative symbolism associated with F-16s
in the Indian body politic and political class, as well as
the potential for the initiative to land with a thud, MEA
Spokesman Navej Sarna convoked senior correspondents to an
unprecedented midnight briefing following the March 25
announcement of the Administration's South Asia Initiative in
Washington in order to ensure that it was properly understood
and accurately reported in the media. Highlighting that the
USG "intends to upgrade the US-India Strategic Partnership,"
he stressed the potential for civilan nuclear energy
cooperation, space cooperation, as well as the participation
of US firms in the RFI for the MRCA. One participant told us
that "not even during the Kargil War were we called to the
MEA after midnight."

GOI Comments
--------------


4. (U) Thus far, the only formal GOI comments have come from
the PM, Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee, and two senior
military officers. The PMO issued a statement on March 25
recording the PM's "great disappointment" in the decision,
but has carried no other remarks. Mukherjee confirmed on
March 27 that the GOI would actively consider the US offer, a
statement that contrasted significantly to his utterances as
recently as December 2004, when he highlighted the potential
for F-16s to fuel an arms race in South Asia. On March 27,
Air Force Chief SP Tyagi brushed off the news, telling the
media that the offer was not new, confirming Indian Air Force
(IAF) interest in expanding its fleet, and indicating that
the reaction in the IAF more broadly was sober. On March 27,
Commander-in-Chief of the Western Naval Command Vice Admiral
Madanjit Singh emphasized that the F-16s would not alter the
balance of air power in the region.

Positive
--------------


5. (U) Terming the offers of combat aircraft and civilian
nuclear reactors an "unprecedented breakthrough in Indo-US
relations," noted strategic commentator K. Subrahmanyam
gushed in the "Times of India" on March 28 that no US
Secretary of State had ever had as much impact on bilateral

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ties as Dr. Rice did in her recent 24 hour visit to Delhi.
"Hindustan Times" Foreign Editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri
reported that the "US Powers India's Global Push,"
emphasizing the "concession of access to civilian nuclear
technology," a "defense cooperation agreement that includes
joint production," and institutional means to translate the
civil space dimensions of the NSSP into reality, concluding
that the initiative was a "historical shift in its policy
towards India." Chaudhury commented that the F-16s
represented no threat to India's air superiority, and that
worries about the aircraft's nuclear capabilities were
misplaced, as the USG would not provide these models.
Editorially, the HT took called the move a "Promissory Note,"
urging the GOI to keep a clear head and "to see which of the
many promises it can get Washington to deliver on, and fast."
Suggesting that India could also be responsible for a
failure to live up to the initiative's potential, the editors
warned that the legendary Indian bureaucracy could smother a
US offer to allow India to co-produce.


6. (U) JNU Professor and strategist C Raja Mohan observed
that India will have difficulty saying "no" to the
"extraordinary US offer" to assist India become a world
power. The US initiative offered potentially big ticket
items, which the GOI should take a long hard look at. The
prospect of long-term relationships with US firms, and
co-development would provide the first steps to position
India to become an outsourcing hub for military R&D and
weapons production.


7. (U) Writing on March 28, "Times of India" Foreign Affairs
correspondent Indrani Bagchi (and Chaudhury's wife) stressed
that discussion of the F-18 was particularly noteworthy,
inasmuch as these aircraft "had not been sold to any other
country, even to NATO allies." As such, they offered unsual
potential to ally the Indian aerospace industry with the most
advianced US aviation firms in the world.

Other Commentary Evolving, Some Negative
--------------


8. (C) In the few days since the news hit, reportage has
calmed down, even in media with strong anti-American views.
"Hindu" foreign policy writer Siddharth Varadarajan on March
27 slammed the announcement for "fueling the arms race,"
adversely affecting the security environment in South Asia,
and pushing the region to more guns over butter. Drawing on
unnamed MEA sources, he suggested that "privately, the mood
is not so optimistic" as early spin suggested, and that
senior UPA leaders considered it a "deeply unfriendly act."
By the next day, the paper's defense writer Sanjay Dikshit
acknowledged that the USG has grabbed the initiative, and
that the final decision a MRCA "lies with the defense
services," and that the "generousity of the US offer had put
India in a diplomatically difficult position." Editorially,
however, the "Hindu" evinced no change in its hardline,
anti-US position, calling the initiative "a dubious move," "a
vague concept that India must be wary of," and an attempt by
the US to draw India and Pakistan away from Iran, concluding
that the the GOI "must remain firm in pursuing its
independent foreign policy."

BJP Largely Critical
--------------


9. (U) Illustrating the extent to which the BJP in
opposition has reverted to old think to flog the government,
former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha predicted on March 27
that an F-16 sale would have an adverse impact on the
Indo-Pak peace process, as well as on US-India relations more
broadly. Calling the South Asia Initiative "a bunch of
promises," Sinha stressed that the Administration was being
naive in expecting Pakistan to use F-16s to use against
terrorist hideouts along its border with Afghanistan. He
urged the government to protest strongly and questioned
Defense Minister Mukherjee's comment that the GOI would even
consider the American offer.


10. (U) Since the announcement, however, coverage in the
pro-BJP "Pioneer" has also evolved. After March 26 headlines
screamed that the US was "fueling an arms race in South
Asia," by March 28 the paper was reporting that "India is not
too concerned about Pakistan getting F-16s," and that it was
"not likely to drastically alter India's well thought out
acquisition plans." Citing Air Marshall SC Tyagi, the paper
reported that in view of the indigenization of the
Russian-made SU-30 MKI, India "should not get unduly
disturbed over President Bush's proposal."

Think Tanks
--------------


11. (C) Former Foreign Secretary Shashank referred to the
initiative as a positive development which should be seen in
the larger context of US-India partnership. Going beyond the
NSSP, he said Indians must look beyond the hyphenated
Indo-Pak relationship, and internalize that the United States
was taking India more seriously. Speaking with a number of
think tank experts and retired GOI officials and military
officers after a March 28 speech by Foreign Minister Natwar
Singh on non-proliferation, Poloff was struck by their
interest in correcting minor factual mistakes in press
articles and the possibility of technology transfer, rather
than in criticizing the decision itself. MG (ret) Ramesh
Chopra, formerly of the Indian Army Intelligence Directorate,
waved away the story as "inconsequential" in light of the
large package offered to India and echoed the "breakthrough"
language.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) It is clear that the GOI is not worked up about
the F-16, and that there is considerable interest in the
shift in USG policy towards India. In contrast to other
eras, public reaction has been unusually measured,
although we are witnessing only the first days of what
will almost certainly be a long debate and decision making
period. Many of the main actors have not yet been heard
from, but the initial reaction has been more positive than
we had expected, given the unsually negative connotations
the word "F-16" conjures up in India. This is a tribute to
both the broad-based and imaginative nature of the
Secretary's proposals, and to MEA, which has established a

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positive framework in which the debate can take place.
MULFORD