Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NEWDELHI1872
2005-03-10 13:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
HOME MINISTER UPBEAT ON KASHMIR, WORRIES OF POTENTIAL MAOIST SPILLOVER FROM NEPAL
how-toThis record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001872
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK NP IN
SUBJECT: HOME MINISTER UPBEAT ON KASHMIR, WORRIES OF POTENTIAL MAOIST SPILLOVER FROM NEPAL
REF: NEW DELHI 1274
Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001872
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK NP IN
SUBJECT: HOME MINISTER UPBEAT ON KASHMIR, WORRIES OF POTENTIAL MAOIST SPILLOVER FROM NEPAL
REF: NEW DELHI 1274
Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: In a March 9 meeting with the Ambassador, Home Minister Shivraj Patil credited Pakistan with reducing infiltration, called the law and order situation in the state ""more comfortable,"" and expressed confidence that the first Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus would roll on schedule on April 7, despite the harsh winter, which had slowed preparatory work.
The GOI had told President Musharraf that he would be welcome to visit India during the ongoing cricket series. Patil downplayed the effects of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal on India, commenting that there has not been the spillover he expected, but expressed concern and the need to remain vigilant about the internal threat of leftist violence inside India. End Summary.
Kashmir
--------------
2. (C) In a discussion that focused primarily on trafficking in persons (septel),the Ambassador told the Home Minister that he expected Secretary Rice would be interested in Indian views on developments in Jammu and Kashmir during her upcoming visit to New Delhi and asked for Patil's assessment of trends there. The Home Minister ascribed the significant decline in infiltration not only to the LOC fence, better anti-insurgency measures by India, and heavy snow which clogged mountain passes, but also to Pakistani efforts to reduce the flow of terrorists, commenting that ""You have to give them credit."" The law and order situation had improved in part because of Pakistani actions, he stated.
3. (C) The problem with the terrorists was not their guns, Patil continued, but their grenades and improvised explosive devices (IEDs),as a result of which many civilians were killed and travel via road remained risky. He expressed great satisfaction that the Kashmiris had braved terrorist threats and intimidation during the February municipal elections, turning out in large numbers and making them a great success. This was further evidence of strong Kashmiri interest in how they are governed, the Minister stated.
4. (C) Patil expected the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus to roll on schedule on April 7, despite harsh winter weather that had hampered infrastructure improvements and other preparatory work. The GOI was looking into opening several more roads (presumably Jammu-Sialkot, Kargil-Skardu, Poonch-Mirpur, and Lahore-Amritsar),but did not elaborate. The number of delegations visiting each country has increased enormously, which is helping to keep the atmosphere for rapprochement positive. The Home Minister added that New Delhi had also told Islamabad that President Musharraf was welcome in India for the Indo-Pak cricket series now underway.
Nepal/Naxalite Nexus
--------------
5. (C) Turning to the crisis in Nepal, the Ambassador noted that the US and India remain very close in their views and are consulting regularly. He apprised Patil that the US had postponed a military/medical exercise (the JCET) in our ongoing effort to keep pressure on the King, and that there was no lethal assistance in the pipeline to the RNA for the next few months.
6. (C) Responding to a question about the impact of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal on India's internal security, Patil observed that insurgent groups in Nepal were communicating with groups here and elsewhere in the subcontinent, in Latin America and Africa, and that funds were crossing borders. By dismissing the government, the King had removed the buffer between the Palace and the Maoists and created even greater problems for himself.
Ordinary Nepalis were keeping quiet or saying things acceptable to the Maoists, but they did not back the insurgents. Patil agreed that the RNA, by increasingly withdrawing into the Kathmandu Valley, had conceded territory to the Maoists.
7. (C) The situation was very complicated, Patil continued, and India was finding that when it attempted to be of assistance in one area, one problem would crop up, while if it tried another, it would face still other problems. The GOI had increased its vigil on its borders, so that ""those who do not believe in democracy do not cross over to India.""
Whatever spillover there was into India, however, remained in small amounts, and was proceeding at a snail's pace.
Patil professed not to know whether this was the ""lull before the storm"" or that the status quo would continue. The situation in Bhutan and Assam had also not deteriorated as a result of Nepal, but India was keeping its fingers crossed.
Given his responsibilities for internal security, however, he remained concerned about the internal threat of leftist violence inside India (Reftel).
MULFORD
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV PK NP IN
SUBJECT: HOME MINISTER UPBEAT ON KASHMIR, WORRIES OF POTENTIAL MAOIST SPILLOVER FROM NEPAL
REF: NEW DELHI 1274
Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary: In a March 9 meeting with the Ambassador, Home Minister Shivraj Patil credited Pakistan with reducing infiltration, called the law and order situation in the state ""more comfortable,"" and expressed confidence that the first Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus would roll on schedule on April 7, despite the harsh winter, which had slowed preparatory work.
The GOI had told President Musharraf that he would be welcome to visit India during the ongoing cricket series. Patil downplayed the effects of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal on India, commenting that there has not been the spillover he expected, but expressed concern and the need to remain vigilant about the internal threat of leftist violence inside India. End Summary.
Kashmir
--------------
2. (C) In a discussion that focused primarily on trafficking in persons (septel),the Ambassador told the Home Minister that he expected Secretary Rice would be interested in Indian views on developments in Jammu and Kashmir during her upcoming visit to New Delhi and asked for Patil's assessment of trends there. The Home Minister ascribed the significant decline in infiltration not only to the LOC fence, better anti-insurgency measures by India, and heavy snow which clogged mountain passes, but also to Pakistani efforts to reduce the flow of terrorists, commenting that ""You have to give them credit."" The law and order situation had improved in part because of Pakistani actions, he stated.
3. (C) The problem with the terrorists was not their guns, Patil continued, but their grenades and improvised explosive devices (IEDs),as a result of which many civilians were killed and travel via road remained risky. He expressed great satisfaction that the Kashmiris had braved terrorist threats and intimidation during the February municipal elections, turning out in large numbers and making them a great success. This was further evidence of strong Kashmiri interest in how they are governed, the Minister stated.
4. (C) Patil expected the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus to roll on schedule on April 7, despite harsh winter weather that had hampered infrastructure improvements and other preparatory work. The GOI was looking into opening several more roads (presumably Jammu-Sialkot, Kargil-Skardu, Poonch-Mirpur, and Lahore-Amritsar),but did not elaborate. The number of delegations visiting each country has increased enormously, which is helping to keep the atmosphere for rapprochement positive. The Home Minister added that New Delhi had also told Islamabad that President Musharraf was welcome in India for the Indo-Pak cricket series now underway.
Nepal/Naxalite Nexus
--------------
5. (C) Turning to the crisis in Nepal, the Ambassador noted that the US and India remain very close in their views and are consulting regularly. He apprised Patil that the US had postponed a military/medical exercise (the JCET) in our ongoing effort to keep pressure on the King, and that there was no lethal assistance in the pipeline to the RNA for the next few months.
6. (C) Responding to a question about the impact of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal on India's internal security, Patil observed that insurgent groups in Nepal were communicating with groups here and elsewhere in the subcontinent, in Latin America and Africa, and that funds were crossing borders. By dismissing the government, the King had removed the buffer between the Palace and the Maoists and created even greater problems for himself.
Ordinary Nepalis were keeping quiet or saying things acceptable to the Maoists, but they did not back the insurgents. Patil agreed that the RNA, by increasingly withdrawing into the Kathmandu Valley, had conceded territory to the Maoists.
7. (C) The situation was very complicated, Patil continued, and India was finding that when it attempted to be of assistance in one area, one problem would crop up, while if it tried another, it would face still other problems. The GOI had increased its vigil on its borders, so that ""those who do not believe in democracy do not cross over to India.""
Whatever spillover there was into India, however, remained in small amounts, and was proceeding at a snail's pace.
Patil professed not to know whether this was the ""lull before the storm"" or that the status quo would continue. The situation in Bhutan and Assam had also not deteriorated as a result of Nepal, but India was keeping its fingers crossed.
Given his responsibilities for internal security, however, he remained concerned about the internal threat of leftist violence inside India (Reftel).
MULFORD