ADVANCING USG EFFORTS ON BHUTANESE REFUGEES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001715

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREF PREL PHUM IN NP BT
SUBJECT: ADVANCING USG EFFORTS ON BHUTANESE REFUGEES

REF: A. STATE 27085

B. KATHMANDU 460

C. GENEVA 2859

D. NEW DELHI 1482

Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The Bhutanese Ambassador reaffirmed to us on
March 3 that Thimphu remains committed to repatriate Category
1 refugees under the Dewey-Wangchuck framework, but is
unlikely to allow any refugees to return until the
constitution is finalized, and sees little prospect of
progress on the refugee issue while political turmoil
persists in Nepal. Ambassador Tshering also reiterated that
no Bhutanese would travel to Nepal to participate in the
Joint Verification Teams in the current security situation
and cited the recent imposition of a military curfew in the
Jhapa District to bolster his case. The demands by both
Thimphu and Kathmandu that the other draft the next letter
spelling out modalities of the Dewey-Wangchuck plan is
another hurdle we must overcome to move the process forward.
We support a trip to the region by A/S Dewey (or the
Ambassador) as part of the effort to convince Thimphu that a
solution to the refugee issue must be found. The USG should
continue to press Bhutan and Nepal to engage with the other,
but the Nepalese King's dismissal of the Deuba Government has
heightened Bhutanese security concerns and given Thimphu
further arguments for delay. The refugee issue is not a high
priority for the GOI at this time, but the MEA is intrigued
by talk of a "global solution." The EU feels the time is not
right to press the issue. Mission continues to research
conflicting local opinions about whether the RGOB could use
the census to facilitate further expulsions. End Summary.

Bhutan's Position
--------------


2. (C) The Dewey-Wangchuck framework remains our best road
map, but the return of any refugees, including verified
Category 1 refugees is unlikely prior to the adoption of the
constitution, which could take a year, Bhutanese Ambassador
Tshering told Polcouns and Poloff in a March 3 meeting. He

SIPDIS
reasoned that the Bhutanese people do not want refugees,
possibly influenced by Maoists ideology, returning during the
implementation of the constitution and formation of political
parties. (Note: This is the first time the RGOB has
confirmed that political parties will be allowed under the
new constitution. End Note.) He also reiterated that the
RGOB will not restart the Joint Verification Team (JVT)
process until the political and security situation in Nepal
becomes more stable.


3. (C) Polcouns expressed USG desire to receive a response
to the January 19 letter from A/S Dewey to King Wangchuck
asking the RGOB to transmit a second letter to Nepal
reaffirming its commitment to the JVT process. Tshering
responded that he believed the Nepalese were responsible for
sending the next letter, demonstrating that the standoff over
the exchange of correspondence between Kathmandu and Thimphu
continues. Tshering reiterated Thimphu's three major
concerns: 1) the security of JVT members; 2) the lack of
stability in Nepal; and 3) the unwillingness of the Nepalese
opposition to abide by agreements made by the GON. He
commented that events since February 1 have reinforced
Bhutanese concerns. The Ambassador concluded that security
remains foremost for the RGOB, and that it has no other
alternative but to wait until the situation in Nepal
improves. He seemed incredulous at our suggestion that the
JVT's might resume, citing the imposition of a military
curfew in the Jhapa District as evidence of the dangerous
security situation.

GOI Views
--------------


4. (C) The MEA also does not consider the refugee problem a
high priority at this time, particularly in light of the
political problems in Nepal. MEA Joint Secretary (Nepal)
Ranjit Rae acknowledged to Polcouns on March 2 that the GOI
had not heard that the new government in Nepal was willing to
continue PM Deuba's policies concerning the refugees (Ref B).
Rae also inquired about the possibility of a "global
solution," suggesting that this problem should not be too
difficult to resolve, "because only about 16,000 families
need to be resettled." Polcouns responded that we need to
see progress towards repatriation and have heard different
messages from the international community about possible
resettlement numbers as part of such a global solution.
Commenting on the possibility of restarting the verification
process, Rae agreed with the Bhutanese position that there
must be security in Nepal for the JVT members, as neither
side can afford another violent incident. Queried by
Polcouns, Rae reaffirmed Foreign Secretary Saran's promise to
Ambassador Moriarty that New Delhi will encourage the
Bhutanese to continue identifying and repatriating the
refugees, especially those in Category 1 (Ref D).

EU Views
--------------


5. (C) EU Mission Development Assistance Counselor Brian
O'Neill told Poloff on March 3 that the EU does not believe
the time is right to press for a solution to the refugee
problem. He indicated that the EU was still interested in
working together with the USG to find a solution to the
problem, but that the EU was waiting for the situation in
Nepal to become clearer.

Options
--------------


6. (C) We do not believe that discussions of third country
resettlement would lead to more expulsions by the RGOB,
because Thimphu is genuinely concerned about its image on the
world stage. We have told the Bhutanese Government on a
number of occasions that the refugee issue is the one issue
that clouds its otherwise exemplary relations with the
international community. That said, the USG may want to
reinforce to Thimphu that, if resettlement is discussed, the
RGOB should not use the issue to justify further expulsions.
We also need to bear in mind the USG stake in the success of
Bhutan's democratic transition.


7. (C) We also do not believe that the introduction of a
"third option" would lead to a Bhutanese refusal to take back
any refugees. The possibility of third country resettlement
is already public, and the RGOB continues to maintain its
willingness to repatriate bona fide Bhutanese citizens.
However, the Bhutanese Embassy has repeatedly said that only
refugees classified as Category 1 fall into this group and
would be allowed to return. Were the USG to provide a
clearer picture to Bhutan as to how many refugees could be
resettled in third countries, Thimphu would be reassured that
they would not need to accept large numbers of persons, and
possibly be more willing to resume the JVT process. In order
to provide a clearer picture of possible resettlement
numbers, the UNHCR surveys must first be completed. The
surveys, which UNHCR has said could be completed in
approximately 8 months, would assist in finding a durable
solution when the political situation in Nepal improves.


8. (C) We believe that a high-level USG delegation to Bhutan
would highlight our determination to move the process
forward. However, based on comments by the Bhutanese, such a
visit would be less productive while the political situation
in Nepal remains unclear, and until the Nepalese government
has made a decision to allow the UNHCR surveys.

9. (C) We believe that maintaining a dialogue with a greater
"Friends of Bhutan" group is important and continue to meet
with them on the topic. Officers from the EU Mission and the
Australian and Canadian High Commissions are traveling to
Bhutan in the near future and have pledged to provide
readouts of their trips.

Census
--------------


10. (C) Post continues to research the Bhutanese census. We
have asked Thimphu officials for details, including a copy of
the census questionnaire, and are awaiting a reply. We are
also seeking input from our local human rights contacts.
Mission will report back on the likelihood that the RGOB
could use this census to facilitate further expulsions.
MULFORD