BIHAR ELECTIONS COULD WEAKEN UPA GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001304

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR KISL IN
SUBJECT: BIHAR ELECTIONS COULD WEAKEN UPA GOVERNMENT

Classified By: Polcouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: The elections for the Bihar State Assembly
are being watched more closely than usual this year, because
the outcome could possibly weaken the UPA coalition in Delhi.
A resurgent Congress is losing patience with Bihar satrap
Lalu Prasad Yadav, and would like to reduce his influence in
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition in New Delhi
as a first step towards parting company. During a February
10-12 trip to Bihar, Poloff heard that losses in Bihar
elections by Lalu,s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) will likely
result in a hung assembly when votes are counted on February

27. Such an outcome would please Congress, as it would
weaken Lalu's hold on Bihar and lessen his influence in
Delhi. However, if Lalu performs reasonably well, Congress
leadership may order the Bihar party to side with him, and
the UPA will not be effected. A disparate coalition is
working together to oust Lalu, and for the first time in 15
years his Muslim/Yadav (farmer) vote bank looks vulnerable,
although he remains personally popular. With the UPA in
power in Delhi, his traditional strategy of offering himself
as the best bulwark against Hindu nationalists and possible
communal violence no longer works. Lalu,s acceptance of the
post of Railway Minster appears to have been a major tactical
error, because it angered a former ally who coveted the
position and has since decided to run against Lalu, taking
crucial Muslim and Dalit votes away from the RJD. End
Summary.

Ramifications For New Delhi
--------------


2. (C) The Bihar race could impact the Congress-led
government in New Delhi, by changing the make-up of the
governing UPA. Although Bihar,s opposition parties agree
that they want to get rid of Lalu, he retains considerable
influence because of the 26 seats he delivered to the UPA
during the 2004 general elections. If Lalu does pull out of
the UPA the coalition would still have a majority in New
Delhi and would not need to find new allies to maintain the
government, but it would be weaker. Sonia Gandhi and the
Congress leadership view him as an "embarrassment," are tired
of his antics and want to see his influence diminish,
according to Asian Development Research Institute (ADRI)
Director Prabhat Ghosh and several journalists, but it is not
clear at what point Congress would drop Lalu. If he
maintains a significant portion of the Bihar vote, Congress
might decide that it has no choice but to support him to
maintain the UPA alliance because the party is not in a
position to annoy Lalu.

Predictions
--------------


3. (C) During a recent trip to Bihar, pundits predicted to
Poloff that Lalu would lose a significant number of seats in
the state assembly and his wife Rabri Devi could lose the
Chief Ministership, due to a fragmentation of his core
Muslim/Yadav vote bank (The latter is a lower caste
comprising mostly of poor farmers, of which Lalu is a
member). Ali Anwar, President of the All-India Pasmanda
Muslim Mahaz (a body representing Backwards Muslims and
Dalits),forecast that Lalu and the RJD may only get about 70
seats in the 243-seat assembly, and then lose power. ADRI
Director Ghosh suggested that the RJD would get between 70
and 85 seats, which would also not be enough for the RJD to
retain the Chief Ministership. He speculated that the local
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Janata Dal
(United) could make a bid to form the government after the
elections, with former Railway Minster and leader of the
JD(U) Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister.


4. (C) Should the election result in a hung parliament, as
most observers predict, the real political battle will be
waged after the elections, when the job of coalition building
begins. According to Anjana Prakash, Senior Advocate at the
Patna High Court, the serious political wrangling will occur
in the back rooms, as the major parties position themselves
to increase their influence. She added that no one should
count Lalu out, because he is most wily when cornered. Bihar
Industries Association President S.K. Mehrotra agreed,
stating, &the real politics will only come out after the
election is over and the results made public,8 with each
party vying for a part in the ruling coalition.

The Players
--------------


5. (C) Rabri Devi is Chief Minister, but her husband Lalu
Prasad Yadav rules by proxy. In a controversial -- and many
believe illegal move -- Lalu nominated his wife Devi for the
position in July 1997 after he was convicted of corruption.
Despite spending time in jail four times in the last 8 years
on corruption charges, Lalu has ruled Bihar for 15 years,
except for two short periods in 1995 (in which the NDA formed
a government for seven days) and 2000 (when there was
Presidents rule for two months). During his tenure, Bihar
has slipped ever deeper into poverty, crime, and corruption,
to the point it is now known as the country's worst governed
state and the capitol of kidnapping and extortion. Lalu has
been quoted as saying, "any person who reads a newspaper is
not my voter." Various interlocutors agreed that he
purposely limits development in Bihar to maintain his hold on
the poor and downtrodden that vote for him.


6. (C) Lalu remains in power because caste and
religion-based politics are the most potent social and
political forces in the state. For years, he has relied on
poor Muslims and Yadavs to give him an unbeatable plurality
in the state Assembly. Muslims make up 17 percent of the
population, and have voted for Lalu for years to keep the BJP
out of power. Lalu plays to these fears, most recently by
distributing a CD with footage of the Gujarat riots. He also
draws support from his own caste, the Yadavs, a lower caste
that make up 22 percent of the population. The Yadavs have
long been victims of discrimination too, and Lalu appeals to
their sense of pride in having "one of their own" at the top.
These two groups, known in Bihar as the MY (Muslim/Yadav)
Coalition, make up 39 percent of the population, providing
Lalu with a hitherto unbeatable vote bank.

The Challengers
--------------


7. (C) Current Union Minister for Steel and Chemicals and
Fertilizers and LJP Chief Ram Vilas Paswan is the second most
influential candidate in the race after Lalu. A Dalit with
great influence in his community, Paswan is also popular with
lower class Muslims, and could take a significant number of
votes in both of these communities from Lalu and the RJD.
Paswan,s LJP formerly belonged to the BJP-led NDA, but quit
over the 2002 Gujarat riots. He later joined the UPA for the
2004 Lok Sabha polls. Paswan has become a key ally in the
Congress strategy for revival in Bihar.


8. (C) Congress ruled Bihar until 1989, but its influence
has declined steadily since then. Its recent resurgence at
the national level has convinced the state leadership that it
can return to power. Leftist parties, such as the Communist
Party of India (Marxist),Communist Party of India (CPI) and
Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) only managed
eight percent of the vote in the 2000 elections and are not
expected to play a major role in the 2005 polls.


9. (C) The BJP and JD(U) have formed an alliance to contest
the Bihar polls, and have announced that state JD(U) leader
Nitish Kumar would be Chief Minister if they win the
election. Our informants agreed that if a fractured mandate
provided a chance to oust Lalu, Congress, the LJP and the JD
(U),might well join hands to form to form the government.


10. (C) Our interlocutors also agreed that independent
candidates will, for the first time, play an important role
in Bihar elections. ADRI Member-Secretary Shaibal Gupta
stated that the RJD,s success over the last 15 years has
created an ever growing number of people expecting positions
in the Lalu government. When these would-be politicians were
not offered RJD tickets, they expressed their discontent by
running against official RJD candidates. He added that since
five or ten seats will most likely decide the race, these
independents could make all the difference. According to BJP
spokesperson Kiran Ghai, although Congress and the RJD have
an agreement not to field candidates against each other, Lalu
has tried to get around it by fielding "independent"
candidates against Congress.

Lalu,s Weakness, in 2005
--------------


11. (C) A number of issues have weakened Lalu,s hold on
power in Bihar. With the BJP no longer in power in New
Delhi, it is more difficult for Lalu to scare lower class
Muslims into voting for him. Since voting behavior in Bihar
is dictated primarily by religion or caste, the emergence of
Paswan means that Dalit voters can now vote for one of their
own rather than Lalu, ADRI's Ghosh argued. Several observers
commented that Paswan might name a Muslim as his candidate
for the Chief Minister position, forcing Lalu to drop Rabri
Devi and follow suit to keep his Muslim vote bank intact.


12. (C) S.K. Mehrotra of the Bihar Industries Association
stated that many people are disenchanted with Lalu because he
has nothing to show for his many years in office and now,
with no threat of communal violence on the horizon, voters
see Congress and the LJP as real options. Also, the dramatic
increase in crime in recent years and the growing
anti-incumbency sentiment has galvanized the upper castes
against Lalu. His main mistake was ambition by taking the
post of Railway Minister. Lalu thought that it would
position him to become Home Minister or even Prime Minister,
but instead it only spurred his challenger Paswan who coveted
the position.


13. (C) Journalist Manish Kumar from NDTV summed up the
general sense that Lalu is most dangerous when backed into a
corner and that his ability to play off one side against the
other should not be discounted. He concluded, "Lalu in the
opposition is a scary thought and could be even more
dangerous."

Comment
--------------


14. (C) We will not know until the final results are
announced on February 27 just how much Lalu has slipped. If
he confounds the critics and manages again to win a clear
victory, the status quo will continue both in Bihar and in
New Delhi. Should he do poorly, Congress can be expected to
begin marginalizing him. Even though he has stated that he
will not upset the UPA coalition in New Delhi, Lalu will not
hesitate to do so, if he faces a loss of power and sees a
chance to exact revenge.
MULFORD