LIFTING TERM LIMITS: PUBLIC REFERENDUM SET FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000384

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/C, AF/RSA, DRL; LONDON AND PARIS FOR
AFRICAWATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM CD
SUBJECT: LIFTING TERM LIMITS: PUBLIC REFERENDUM SET FOR
JUNE 6

REF: NDJAMENA 04 1980

Classified By: Political/Economic Officer Kathleen FitzGibbon for reaso
ns 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Chad's public referendum on constitutional
amendments to remove presidential term limits is scheduled
for June 6. Voter registration for the referendum has been
completed, but was plagued by numerous technical and
logistics problems. The call by some opposition groups for a
boycott of the registration went unheeded. The Government is
now compiling and verifying the electoral list which will
then be open for public scrutiny. The Government of Chad has
requested donor assistance for the referendum and 2006
election process. It is too early to tell if the Government
will be able to keep its timetable. End Summary.

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VOTER REGISTRATION COMPLETED
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2. (C) The Government of Chad announced that the public
referendum on the proposed constitutional amendments will be
held on June 6. The registration process, which kicked off
on January 10, had to be extended to February 16 because of
the lack of registration materials and other technical
shortcomings. Various officials of the National Commission
for Electoral Registration (CENRE) told emboffs that they had
"underestimated" the number of Chadians to be registered.
The Government had prepared 5,000,000 registration cards but
ran out in many areas. (Note: Another issue is without an
accurate census, the Government is unclear about what
percentage of Chadians are of voting age. End Note.) Most of
the registration was conducted door-to-door. Registration
officials in eastern Chad, for example, used donkeys and
bikes to reach local villages. In some places, there were
designated locations to register, but these sites were often
located at the offices of local government authorities.
These sites were less than neutral and may have deterred many
residents from registering.


3. (C) Opposition parties are already charging that the
Government gave more voter registration cards to the nomads
and this explains why many cities lacked cards. Local
authorities in Moundou, Kourma, and Sahr are concerned
because nomads were registered in their home areas but will
be allowed to vote outside those areas. In addition, they
will have four days of voting. The Deputy Governor of
Moundou Masagar Mbairidoum Lucas and (now former) Governor of
Sahr Danyo Ndokedi told Pol/Econ officer on March 2 that it
will be impossible to keep track of whether or not nomads
have voted at other locations. They suspect that there will
be a number of irregularities in eastern Chad. According to
Lucas, military officials insisted on the four days of
nomadic voting. Many regional military officials own herds
and will likely appear at polling places with the nomads to
influence their vote, according to Lucas. Danyo told P/E
officer that there were not enough voter registration cards
in Sahr. The Minister of Territorial Administration Mahamat
Zene Bada authorized CENRE to collect names for the
registration in notebooks, which were bound together and sent
to N'Djamena, according to Danyo. He admitted that there
will be no way of tracking the names of those registered.
Lucas said that the Government has demonstrated in previous
elections that there are many ways to cheat. He said that he
hoped their would be international observers for the
referendum.

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OPPOSITION TURMOIL
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4. (C) Opposition groups were divided over participation in
the registration process and show no signs of a united front
for the referendum. Ten key members of the Party for Freedom
and Development (PLD) defected over the party's call to
boycott the registration. They joined the ruling MPS on
March 5. Other key leaders, such as Saleh Kebzabo,
Abdelkadar Kamougue, and Ngarlejy Yorongar, argued that all
Chadians should be registered because in the event of the
death or incapacitation of the President, elections would be
arranged within 90 days and the standing electoral list would
likely be used. Along with PLD's Ibni Oumar Saleh, former
President Lol Mahamat Choua and Jean Alingue called for a
boycott. Key opposition leaders are still divided over
whether to boycott the referendum or to run a campaign for a
"no" vote. The umbrella group, Coordination of Political


Parties for the Defense of the Constitution (CPDC),is
already calling for a boycott. However, after its position
on the registration was undermined when key leaders broke
ranks, it is not clear that CPDC will be able to develop a
common position on the referendum that will be effective.
Chadian authorities in several cities and human rights groups
tell us that the political opposition boycott was not
respected.

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NEXT STEPS
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5. (C) The electoral list is being compiled by hand and then
computerized in N'Djamena and will be presented for public
viewing for 45 days. Given the irregularities of the
registration process itself, opposition and human rights
groups have already told us that they plan to file protests
and challenges to the list. Once the electoral lists become
official, two weeks of political campaigning will commence.
The referendum is scheduled for June 6, but it is not clear
if the date will slip due to issues with the electoral list
or technical delays in terms of delivering election
materials. There had been rumors that the Independent
National Electoral Commission (CENI) wanted to hold the
long-awaited municipal elections on the same day.


6. (C) Key human rights groups, such as the Chadian League
for Human Rights (LTDH),were critical of the opposition
politicians' calls for the boycott. LTDH supported the
registration process because they believe it is every Chadian
should be registered to have the right to vote. Nonetheless,
LTDH chairman Massalbaye Tenebaye told Ambassador Wall on
March 7, that LTDH is opposed to the Constitutional revisions.


7. (C) The ruling MPS is expected to campaign on the theme:
a vote for the referendum is a vote for peace, unity, and
stability, according to Lucas. Since the beginning of the
year, President Deby appears to be reaching out to a number
of constituencies. His public appearances at the cathedral
during the holidays and strong speech in favor of the
controversial family code and on women's rights on
International Women's Day are two occasions in which he has
reached beyond his Zaghawa and Muslim bases. Lucas, who is
an MPS member, said that if Deby chose not to run for a third
term, it is possible the MPS opposition could rejoin the
party. He believes opposition within the MPS will grow
instead.


8. (C) Lucas also warned P/E officer during a March 1 visit
that international observers are necessary for the elections
because the likelihood of widespread fraud is likely. He
suggested that it may already be stolen. He received reports
that some individuals may have received 2 to 3 registration
cards, which may explain why there were not enough cards
available for everyone who wanted to register. Governor
Danyo of Sahr told P/E officer on March 2 that there were not
enough cards for voters, so CENRE and local government
officials were instructed to write the names of voters in
notebooks for transmission to N'Djamena.

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APPEAL FOR DONOR SUPPORT
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9. (U) On March 9, the Minister of Plan Mahamat Ali Hassan,
Minister for Decentralization Oumar Boukar, and the President
of the Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) called
together the donors to request assistance for the upcoming
electoral processes, including the referendum and the
municipal, legislative, and presidential elections. The
price tag for the referendum, they told the diplomatic corps,
is USD 3,921,569. To date, the Government has provided all
the funds for the process. The bulk of the funds are being
used to fund CENI's activities and the rest are being used
for training of election officials, logistics, and materials
needed for the referendum.


10. (C) After the Government's presentation, the French
Ambassador Jean-Pierre Bercot, speaking in his capacity as
head of the European Union delegation, noted that the United
Nations Development Program (UNDP) is the primary mechanism
for many E.U. countries, including France, for electoral
support in Chad. Bercot said that there already may be some
funds at UNDP's disposal for the upcoming elections.
However, he said that donors would need to have the calendar
and the budget for the municipal, legislative, and


presidential elections. He also noted that France is still
waiting for a response from the Government on issues
concerning the 2001 elections. He wondered if changing the
Constitution is part of the electoral process. He urged the
Government to move forward on the municipal elections, which
would represent a signficant democratic milestone as local
officials will be elected. He also raised the issue of
whether or not election observers will be requested.
According to Bercot, francophone countries can provide
foreign observers.


11. (C) Ambassador Wall also emphasized the importance that
the U.S. places on reinforcing democratic institutions in
Chad. He agreed with the French Ambassador that it is
critical to have the electoral timetable and budget and
consultations among the donors, particularly with UNDP,
before making any requests for assistance from Washington.
UNDP stated that the United Nations Political Affairs Bureau
will evaluate the situation and whether the criteria for free
and fair elections are in place in order to determine UNDP's
role and level of support. Bercot suggested that the UNDP
meet with the CENI to develop an official request for
assistance and that UNDP share that with the donors.

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COMMENT
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12. (C) We anticipate a number of issues will arise over
the electoral list. However, we will not know the extent of
the problems with the registration until the electoral list
is opened for public scrutiny. We expect numerous challenges
from opposition groups. Given the delays already experienced
during the registration, it may be difficult for the
Government to overcome challenges to the electoral lists and
tremendous technical and logistical obstacles to holding the
referendum as scheduled. Nonetheless, the Government is
determined to conduct the referendum prior to the rainy
season and will work hard to minimize any additional delays.


13. (U) Khartoum and Tripoli Minimize Considered.
WALL


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