THE MANY FACES (AND LIVES) OF PRESIDENT IDRISS DEBY

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 001761

SIPDIS


FOR AF ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER, DRL ASSISTANT SECRETARY
LOWENKRON, AND NSC SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR COURVILLE FROM
AMBASSADOR WALL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2010
TAGS: EFIN ENRG EPET KDEM PGOV PHUM PREL CD
SUBJECT: THE MANY FACES (AND LIVES) OF PRESIDENT IDRISS DEBY

Classified By: Ambassador Marc M. Wall for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. President Idriss Deby at year's end is
perhaps more besieged than he has ever been in his fifteen
years in power. He is confronting a rash of desertions,
raids on military targets, and violent student
demonstrations. Even his most respected family members are
joining the opposition. But Deby is fighting back with a
brazen show of defiance, reorganizing his military, taking
frequent trips abroad, delivering combative public
statements, and lashing out at domestic insurgents, the World
Bank, and anyone else he sees standing in his way. How long
Deby can hang on is anyone's guess, but he is not ready to
give up the fight, and key elements of his power base remain
(barely) intact. Even now, we would not count him out. We
believe it still serves our interests to encourage a peaceful
transition, while not harboring false hopes that, in Deby's
present state of mind, he will be especially receptive to our
message. END SUMMARY

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Deby's Sea of Troubles
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2. (SBU) President Deby has had no respite from challenges
to his rule since his return to N'Djamena November 11 after
an extended stay in eastern Chad. He had spent weeks in his
redoubt in Abeche seeking to stamp out a rebellion by
deserters led by Yaya Dillo, his young cousin and a former
coup plotter. Having relieved his army chief of staff of his
duties for refusing orders to fire on the rebels, Deby only
just avoided the unpardonable offense in Zaghawa culture of
shedding the blood of his fellow clansmen. Instead the two
sides successfully executed a charade with the army
pretending to fight and the renegade forces pretending to
defend themselves. In the end, the insurgents were allowed
to escape across the border into Sudan unscathed.


3. (SBU) In the weeks since then, Deby has had to deal with
attacks on arms depots in N'Djamena and Koundoul, a training
base south of town; raids on government installations in the
eastern towns of Adre, Guereda, and Amnabak; large-scale
military desertions; and student riots in the southern towns
of Bongor and Pala. Perhaps the most stinging challenge to
Deby personally was the release December 8 of the manifesto
by the twins Tom and Timan Erdimi, his cousins and respected
family elders, declaring open opposition to his regime.

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Deby Comes Out Swinging
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4. (SBU) Evidently believing that the best defense is a
good offense, Deby has been defiant in his response. After
the attacks on the military compounds in N'Djamena and
Koundoul, Deby dissolved the Republican Guard, the military
branch that was supposed to be an elite force but had
actually been the seedbed for the plots against him in May
2004 and Yaya Dillo's more recent attempt. On November 15,
he announced the reshuffling of his military leadership. He
shifted the army chief of staff who had disobeyed orders to
shoot in October to be military advisor in the Presidency and
elevated a well-respected Southerner to the top military
command position. He also replaced the heads of the National
Police and the Nomadic Guard.


5. (SBU) Deby's troubles at home have not kept him from
traveling abroad. He spent much of the last week of November
on a trip to Brussels and Paris. He was in Bamako December
2-4 for the French-African summit and in Mecca December 7-8
for a conference of Islamic leaders. In Paris, he appealed
to President Chirac for military assistance and France's
intervention on his behalf in his dispute with the World Bank

on plans to revise the oil revenue management law.

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The Fighter Speaks Out
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6. (U) Deby has pulled no punches in his many public
statements over the last month. At a rally organized by the
ruling party in the dusty square in front of the Presidential
Palace November 16, he denounced all challengers to his
authority. At one point, he proclaimed that just because he
had taken power in N'Djamena from the East in 1990 did not
mean that any new "adventurer" would be able to get away with
it now. In this speech and in an interview on Radio France
Internationale broadcast November 28, he pointedly accused
Khartoum of aiding and abetting Chadian rebels against him.


7. (U) Although he did not speak at the ceremony December 1
commemorating the anniversary of his march into N'Djamena to
take power fifteen years before (the so-called "Deby Day"),
he proudly observed the public rituals of reviewing the
troops, laying the wreath at the memorial shrine, and sitting
prominently in the reviewing stands. Unlike previous such
events, he finished the festivities by taking a victory lap
standing with his head sticking through the open roof of his
humvee and waving at the surrounding crowds.


8. (U) Deby the politician and Deby the diplomat were on
full display at the celebration of the "Day of Liberty and
Democracy" on December 10 in Fada, a town in his stronghold
in Chad's northeast desert. Deby led off the hour-long
speech thanking Libya, France, and the United States for
their help with projects in Fada. He proceeded into a
lengthy summary of his achievements and plans for building
schools, clinics, and roads. He spoke up for girls'
education and condemned abuse of children in some koranic
schools. He denied supporting Sudanese rebels in Darfur and
affirmed hopes for peaceful relations with Khartoum. He had
soothing remarks about his commitment to fighting poverty,
talking with opponents, and managing public finances
transparently.


9. (U) But Deby the fighter broke through in his
impassioned comments on his determination to stamp out
threats to internal stability. And as in his statements of
November 16 and November 28, he saved his choicest words for
the World Bank. He insisted he would change the oil revenue
management law as he saw fit and defy any effort by the World
Bank or any other outsider to dictate terms that interfered
with Chad's sovereignty. He provocatively accused the World
Bank of having nothing to show for its massive investment in
Chad over the years.

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But How Long Can He Hold On?
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10 (C) As Deby has shown many times before, when in
trouble, he fights. And his fighter's instincts are engaged
now, perhaps as never before. No one in Chad is better at
intimidating, out-scheming, or buying off his rivals. His
survival prospects will be shaped by four factors: his
health, his family, his army, and his relations with
Khartoum. Despite a bad liver, war wounds, and libertine
personal habits, his public appearances over the last month
suggest that he is in fighting trim. Despite even the
defection of the Erdimi twins, he can count on his family
knowing that if he falls, it falls too. Thus he knows the
family will not rashly risk a violent rupture. Despite
desertions and attacks by isolated bands of dissidents,
Deby's core base of support in the army still seems to remain
in place, albeit tenuously. We leave it to others to assess
Khartoum's intentions, but the accusations traded by each

side of support by the other for its enemies have not so far
led to overt confrontation. Any of these elements could
crumble under Deby's feet at any time, but for now the ground
seems to be holding firm enough to allow him to hang on to
power. Even now, we would not count him out.

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What Can the United States Do?
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11. (C) It is not necessarily the best time to try to talk
with a leader about democratic change when he is fighting for
his life and still thinks he has a chance at surviving. We
believe it is nevertheless worth trying. Our interests in
counter-terrorism, refugees, Darfur peace talks, and oil
suggest we should. We will thus continue to seek
opportunities to raise our concerns with Deby privately and
to speak out publicly. We will continue to work to
strengthen democratic institutions, improve governance, and
reform the military. As we have recommended in the past,
these efforts would be bolstered by a clear statement of our
policy on president-for-life wannabees; more contacts for
Deby with senior U.S. officials; efforts to engage the
Europeans and Africans; and under certain circumstances, an
invitation for a White House visit.


12. (C) But we do not hold out much hope at this stage that
Deby would be receptive to these overtures. In the fierce
desert culture he grew up in and lives in still, pride and
honor are everything. The threats against him only make him
more determined to fight. The French, who tell us they have
tried to tempt Deby with offers of sinecures and handsome
apartments, are convinced he will never leave Chad. As some
describe him here, he is like a baobab tree: he will remain
upright as long as he can and topple only after he is dead or
pushed over.


13. (C) Coming as close as he has so far in declaring his
intentions to remain in power for another five-year term,
Deby ended his speech in Fada December 10 by announcing to
cheers that he would meet his countrymen at next year's
festivities to be held in Kyabe, a town in southern Chad. As
the men on camels and horses were riding onto the parade
ground afterwards, the Ambassador turned to the French
Ambassador sitting next to him and noted that Deby does not
seem like a man ready to leave the scene. The French
Ambassador replied: "only when he is dead." Unfortunately,
he may be right.
WALL


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