KIBAKI CALLS FOR UNITY, CONTINUES PARTISAN GAMES

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 005105

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KIBAKI CALLS FOR UNITY, CONTINUES PARTISAN GAMES

REF: A. NAIROBI 5096


B. NAIROBI 4901

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Craig White for reasons 1.4 (
b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: As President Kibaki appears to be in
denial that a serious political crisis is staring him in the
face, Orange Democratic Movement leaders intensify their
criticism and call for fresh elections. Dissatisfied FORD-K
and National Party of Kenya leaders are taking advantage of
Kibaki,s current vulnerability to press for special favors
for the party,s rank and file. Unless Kibaki can build
support for his new government, the prevailing political
climate might prove fatal for much of the government,s
agenda. END SUMMARY.

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Kibaki and Business as Usual
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2. (C) During his December 12 Jamhuri day speech, Kibaki
downplayed the significance of the government,s humiliating
referendum defeat over the proposed constitution and chose to
completely ignore the ensuing political crisis. Instead, he
called for an end to political bickering to allow the nation
to focus on national unity and economic development. Kibaki
repeated his statement that the government would establish a
legal framework for delivering a new constitution to the
Kenyan people. Conspicuous in seats reserved for cabinet
members were FORD-K leader Musikari Kombo and National Party
of Kenya (NPK) leader Charity Ngilu, who had previously
declined to join Kibaki,s government.

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Luring them Back to the Table
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3. (C) Kombo and Ngilu,s gamble, declining their cabinet
positions last Thursday to hold out for a sweeter deal,
appears to have paid off. Following the refusal of one
quarter of his cabinet to accept their positions, Kibaki
desperately needs to entice the two parties back into his
government. The local press reports that Ngilu, who
reportedly turned down a seat because she was not consulted
about other appointments, namely that of Martha Karua, has
been promised an additional two ministerial positions for the
NPK. Kombo is reported to have been promised an additional
three ministerial positions (brining the total to seven
slots) and five additional assistant minister posts (for a
total of seven) for FORD-K members in return for his support.



4. (U) Mukhisa Kituyi, who accepted his renewed mandate as
Minister for Trade and did not join the FORD-K walk-out,
publicly criticized his fellow FORD-K members for their
political posturing, revealing deep rifts within the party.
Kombo is reported in local media to have also included in his
demands numerous choice civil service positions for his
supporters. Kibaki,s acquiescence to demands for increased
tribal representation by disgruntled groups has been
criticized for promoting tribalism by Minister for Labor
Newton Kulundu, also a FORD-K member.

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ODM on the Offensive
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5. (U) In a December 12 press statement, Orange Democratic
Movement (ODM) luminary Raila Odinga renewed his calls for
snap elections. He asserted that Kibaki and his governing
circle have lost touch with the will of the people, amply
demonstrated in their defeat in the constitutional referendum
and the disastrous cabinet reshuffle which resulted in one
quarter of nominees declining their posts. Raila described
Kibaki as a minority president with a minority cabinet. He
also announced that the ODM has assumed the mandate of the
now defunct Narc.

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A Return to Personality Cults?
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6. (C) The new cabinet appointees swore an oath of office
to Kibaki personally, contrary to a 1997 Inter-Parliamentary
Parties Group reform which did away with the practice. At
the time, it was argued that a personal pledge of allegiance
to the president emphasized the office-holder at the expense
of the institution of the presidency. Kibaki,s chosen
cabinet line-up illustrates the premium he places on loyalty.
By re-introducing a personal pledge of loyalty to him,
Kibaki may hope to prevent future repeats of his mnisters
openly taking contrary positions, as in the constitutional
referendum debate. Unfortunately, this latest step adds to
growing concerns that Kibaki,s tactics are looking more and
more like Moi,s.



7. (C) COMMENT: Kibaki,s now familiar mantra emphasizing
economic development is clearly designed to deflect attention
from the serious political issues facing him and his failure
to deliver a new constitution. This new focus is something
that might have been better achieved had he invited the
&winners8 of the referendum to join in this effort by
including them in his cabinet. Raila,s quip about a
minority President with a minority cabinet looks accurate.
Ironically, Kibaki,s failure after the crushing referendum
defeat to reach out to his political opponents could end up
seriously impeding the government,s ability to move the
country forward, to the detriment of U.S. interests as well.
BELLAMY