KENYA'S NEW CABINET APPOINTEES AND U.S. INTERESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 005072

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM KCOR ETRD KE
SUBJECT: KENYA'S NEW CABINET APPOINTEES AND U.S. INTERESTS

REF: NAIROBI 5070

Classified By: Ambassador William M. Bellamy for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kibaki's new cabinet is a mixed
bag for U.S. interests in security, corruption, and economic
policy. New Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju will be more
capable than the laterally transferred Ali Mwakwere, but
given his antagonistic track record, will not necessarily be
amenable to U.S. interests. With no change in the security
bureaucracy, we can expect more of the same -- little or no
progress on CT cooperation, while the Minister for Justice
and Constitutional Affairs' has no history with CT
legislation. The bright spots in the new cabinet are a new
appointee at Information and Communications, the retention of
the Finance Minister, and the possible return of Trade and
Industry Minister Mukhisa Kituyi (party maneuvers may render
Kituyi's retention questionable). END SUMMARY.

MEET THE NEW FOREIGN MINISTER
--------------


2. (C) Newly appointed Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju's
public record on the U.S. is uninspiring. At Post's 2005
July Fourth reception, the Minister delivered a harsh
criticism of U.S. policy in Kenya (travel advisory, excluding
Kenya from the Millennium Challenge Account) and Somalia (as
one of the developed nations that has "cut and run"). He
advised against meddling in domestic politics, suggesting
that perhaps the U.S. was considering "regime change" in
Kenya. That said, the handsome, youthful, and articulate
Tuju will likely make a good interlocutor for foreign
visitors and resident diplomats alike. Formerly Information
and Communication Minister from January 2003, Tuju is known
as a smooth operator who has been influential in the Kibaki
government.


3. (C) His competence, however, should not obscure Tuju's
earlier shenanigans at the Ministry of Information and
Communication. Tuju repeatedly undermined badly needed
reforms in Kenya's inefficient telecommunications sector by
interfering in regulatory processes without any legal
authority. When he attempted a year ago to strip a third
mobile phone company of a new license for which it had
successfully bid, he was sued, and lost, in court. Instead
of relenting, Tuju dismissed the entire board of the telecom
regulator and put sycophants in place, thus setting back for
months, if not years, the cause of deeper telecom reform.
Tuju has never adequately explained such actions, and there
are credible reports he was acting on behalf of corrupt
officials in the Office of the President and/or members of
President Kibaki's family. The former journalist from Nyanza
Province did not carry his own constituency in the referendum.

TUJU AND THE REFERENDUM
--------------


4. (C) Tuju's recent past has kept him anything but obscure.
His was the marquee name when violence erupted at an October
29 pro-draft constitution rally in Kisumu which resulted in
four deaths. This came soon after his announcement that he
would form a new party, the People's Progressive Party (PPP).
During the referendum process, Tuju, an ethnic Luo, was
viewed by many fellow tribesmen as having "betrayed" the
community with support for the draft constitution, and his
opposition to top Luo Raila Odinga. Perhaps already being
groomed for his new job, Tuju was the sole minister at a
Banana briefing for diplomats prior to the referendum, during
which he reassured donors that any suggestions that foreign
missions were supporting the "No" campaign did not constitute
official Government of Kenya policy. In his role as
Information Minister, Tuju was at the center of controversial
radio station shut-downs, following his public remarks
warning the media not to incite Kenyans to violence.

SECURITY, CORRUPTION, AND THE CONSTITUTION
--------------


5. (C) There is no change at the helm of Kenya's security
bureaucracy, not a good sign for much awaited progress on
stepping up CT cooperation. John Michuki will remain the
Minister for Provincial Administration and National Security,
while his deputies, Assistant Minister Mirugi Kariuki and
Permanent Secretary Cyrus Gituai also keep their desks.
Another Central Province Kikuyu and the father of six U.S.
-educated children, the Minister is a close associate of
President Kibaki. While Michuki has a long standing
relationship with the U.S. Embassy and is well-intentioned,
he has been unable to accomplish much during his nearly one
year in office. This is opposed to Gituai who, as our most
direct interlocutor on CT issues, has been generally
uncooperative.


6. (C) Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Martha
Karua, only one of two women in the new lineup, is an ethnic
Kikuyu notable for being deeply partisan, which does not bode
well for reconciliation and constitutional review. The
matter of a new constitution, a major function of Karua's
office, is still of paramount importance to Kenyans, despite
Kibaki's effort to shift focus to the development agenda.
Karua's attitude toward issues of U.S. interest is little
known given her previous post as Water Minister, where she
garnered praise for competent, reform-oriented
administration. Given her ministry's role in forming
counterterrorism and money laundering legislation, the extent
to which she is willing to be cooperative and proactive will
dictate the pace of progress we can make. A 1991 participant
in the I.V. program, Karua was a highly visible pro-draft
campaigner during the referendum and is known as a stubborn
politician. Her move up to the Justice Ministry is likely a
reward for her forceful, thoughtful promotion of the draft.


7. (C) The appointment of Mutahi Kagwe as Minister of
Information and Communications is a positive sign. Over the
past two weeks, in discussions with contacts on which new
players could make a positive contribution to a reform-minded
cabinet, Kagwe's name invariably came up. Michuki's
son-in-law, he is widely viewed as smart, knowledgeable and
private-sector-oriented, and earned plaudits as the chair of
the parliament's important Finance Committee. Kagwe was
often mentioned as a strong contender for Trade Minister, and
appears to be a good choice for leading much-needed reforms
in Kenya's telecommunications sector. A key player in the
constitutional reform process, the Minister has also been
vocal on the issues of national security and corruption.
Kagwe, who completed a three month fellowship in the U.S. in
2003, is a positive addition as a much-needed breath of clean
(read: non-corrupt) air in the cabinet, and was the only
Banana MP to attend breakfast with diplomats days after the
referendum.

ECONOMIC POLICYMAKERS: THE BRIGHT SPOT
--------------


8. (C) There is some good news in the new cabinet. In terms
of economic policymaking, Kibaki chose to maintain continuity
at two key ministries, Finance, where David Mwiraria was
retained, and Trade and Industry, where Mukhisa Kituyi stays
on, at least for now. (NOTE: His party, FORD-K, has
announced its members will not accept cabinet appointments.
Kituyi's personal stance on whether to stay or go is not yet
known). Kituyi's retention is particularly important in the
context of the WTO Doha Round Ministerial beginning in Hong
Kong next week. Kituyi has long enjoyed a reputation for
intellectual savvy and effectiveness far exceeding most
cabinet peers, and he has played an instrumental and
constructive role in the Doha Round negotiations, bringing on
board African members of the WTO on difficult issues such as
agriculture. Mwiraria is a tougher nut to crack. On the one
hand, he has been implicated (but cleared by the Kenya
Anti-Corruption Commission) in the infamous Anglo-Leasing
scandals, and many observers strongly suspect he is an
accomplice in several other similar grand scale procurement
scams. On the other hand, while hardly a visionary, he has
assembled an effective and reform-minded team of technocrats
at Finance which is leading the way on a number of critical
reforms throughout government. His retention - assuming he
also keeps this team intact - will thus bring sighs of relief
from the donor community.
BELLAMY