KENYA ON HOLD: NO NEW CABINET AND NO DIALOGUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004984

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA ON HOLD: NO NEW CABINET AND NO DIALOGUE

REF: A. NAIROBI 4902


B. NAIROBI 4901

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1
.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A week after President Kibaki dismissed his
cabinet and suspended Parliament indefinitely, no clear
picture has emerged of the post-referendum Kenyan political
landscape. The Ambassador's conversation with ORANGE
Democratic Movement leaders revealed a group still groping
its way in the dark; meanwhile, a flow of influential
visitors has been unable to convince the president to face
reality and approach the ORANGE team in earnest. END SUMMARY.

THE AMBASSADORS AND THE ORANGES
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2. (C) The Ambassador, along with Chiefs of Mission from
Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Denmark, and the Netherlands,
lunched November 30 with ORANGE Democratic Movement (ODM)
leaders Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, and Peter
Anyang' Nyong'o to gain a sense of their objectives and
direction. The ODM members emphasized their offer to enter
into a dialogue with the Kibaki government (or what remains
of it),noting that the president had made no overtures to
the Movement as a collective, only to certain individuals --
an approach unacceptable to the ODM. (NOTE: in a separate
conversation, MP Reuben Ndolo told Poloff that First Lady
Lucy Kibaki had been sent as interlocutor to the ODM on
November 25, a gesture taken by the movement as a political
slap in the face. END NOTE.) Discontented with Kibaki's
lack of communication, approximately 30 ODM members, with a
handful of lawyers, headed November 30 to Naivasha to
strategize on the way forward for the constitutional review
process, and their own organizational structure. Commenting
on the significance of the referendum result, Kenyatta
remarked that it exposed the chasm between Kikuyu Central
Province (the only one to vote "Yes") and the rest of the
country. The message to Kibaki, he continued, is that the
president cannot go about business as usual.

WHAT THEY WANT
--------------

3. (C) The ODM leaders told the Ambassador that they are
looking for the government to engage them in structured
discussion, strictly as a group, although they have appointed
Moi's former legal adviser Mutula Kilonzo as the
organization's mouthpiece. The organization has two
priorities: that Kibaki should commit to a "time-bound"
legislative agenda, and to continuing and completing the
constitutional review process. Contrary to statements
immediately following the referendum, the ODM asserted they
are not insisting on snap general elections. Claiming they
are not out to bring down President Kibaki, they are keeping
snap elections in their back pocket as a fall back. They
confirmed that they intended to run as a coalition -- with
LDP and KANU retaining their independent party identities --
in 2007 elections. The ODM also informed the five Chiefs of
Mission that, although they had not formally assessed the
numbers, they did not believe they currently had enough votes
in Parliament for a vote of no confidence, which would force
Kibaki to call early elections. (NOTE: 150 of Kenya's 210
constituencies voted ORANGE; but not all of those MPs
necessarily back risking their perks in early elections. A
vote of no confidence requires a simple majority of all 222
voting Members of Parliament (including 12 nominated MPs).
END NOTE.) The ODM has not achieved a unified internal
position for achieving constitutional reform, something they
hope to hammer out in Naivasha. In their discussion with the
Ambassador, both the option of convening a constituency
committee to negotiate a new draft, and amending the current
constitution, arose as possibilities.

MANY VISITORS, NO ORANGES
--------------

4. (C) While Kibaki has not met with any of the ODM
leadership, he has received other visitors since the
referendum, including former Kenya Wildlife Service Director
Richard Leakey and former Constitutional Affairs Minister
Charles Njonjo. The men spoke with the president shortly
after the Ambassador on November 25 (ref A) carrying the same
message urging Kibaki to seize the opportunity to renew his
reform agenda and to engage in dialogue with the ODM. Leakey
commented to the Ambassador that he was "disappointed" with
Kibaki's laconic response, and that Njonjo was so dismayed,
he -- who has avoided appearing in public for many, many
years -- participated in the ORANGE thanksgiving and prayer
rally the very next day (ref B). Former president Moi has
also visited State House, similarly encouraging Kibaki to
reach out to the ODM.
ROADBLOCKS FOR THE ORANGES, LITERALLY
--------------

5. (SBU) On orders from an unnamed source, police in Mombasa
have been instructed to "seal off" the Municipal Stadium, the
venue chosen for the ODM's first "thanks rally", according
The Standard newspaper November 30. Citing "firm
instructions to stop the rally at all costs," the report
quoted government spokesman Alfred Mutua as noting that the
order was consistent with the November 27 ban on ODM mass
gatherings (ref B),adding that police would not license the
meeting. (VP Awori's ban on ORANGE rallies, by the way, has
yet to be legally gazzetted, as required to give it the force
of law.) The ODM has insisted it will go ahead with the
December 10 event.

COMMENT: KIBAKI'S REALITY
--------------

6. (C) The ODM gives the impression not of confidence, but
of concern, of feeling stuck. This may stem from the
disparate, and perhaps fragile, nature of its makeup as an
organization initially cobbled together for a single purpose
(now achieved). Tea-leaf reading increasingly suggests that
President Kibaki may well try to pick and choose among
palatable (to him) KANU members, such as Nicholas Biwott, and
lesser lights among the LDP, bypassing the KANU and LDP
leaderships in an effort to "gut it out" with a parliamentary
majority of his own design. But with less than one week
remaining before his self-imposed two week deadline for
naming a new cabinet, President Kibaki gives no indication
that he appreciates what the ODM has characterized as a
crisis. The longer he allows the current uncertainty to
steep, the less confidence there is in his ability to lead as
President of all Kenyans (instead of as chief of the Kikuyu
tribe) -- particularly among his rivals.
BELLAMY