PRESIDENT KIBAKI BANS ORANGE RALLIES AND MULLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004901

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KIBAKI BANS ORANGE RALLIES AND MULLS
CABINET CONTENDERS

REF: A. NAIROBI 4878


B. NAIROBI 4838

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for
reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. 1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Kenya's government banned November 27
planned nationwide rallies organized by the Orange Democratic
Movement on the grounds the opposition gatherings pose "a
threat to national security." The rallies had been called to
build support for the Orange Democratic Movement and bolster
their calls for early elections, which the government
steadfastly refuses to accept. President Kibaki is expected
to announce his new Cabinet imminently. Kibaki's inclusion
of Orange leaders in the new Cabinet would speed the process
of national reconciliation. Their exclusion risks deepening
political divisions and the derailment of the reform process
in Kenya. END SUMMARY.

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Government Restricts Freedom of Assembly
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2. (U) During a mass thanksgiving gathering held by the
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in Nairobi November 26,
Orange leaders announced plans to hold similar rallies around
the country. The rallies would serve to reward voters who
rejected the draft constitution as well as to garner support
for the ODM's calls for the dissolution of Parliament to
bring about early elections. The government was quick to
respond by banning all future Orange rallies. Vice-President
Moody Awori stated November 27 the government &considers
this call for nationwide rallies inappropriate and a threat
to national security.8 Awori, trying to distance the
government from the resounding defeat of the draft
constitution, further stated that the results of the
referendum in no way should be construed to be an assessment
of government performance and therefore &there is no
reason8 for fresh elections.


3. (C) The government decision sparked protest from the ODM
as being in violation of Kenyans' right to assembly.
Makadara MP Reuben Ndolo told Poloff November 28 the latest
announcement was further evidence of the government "trying
to become dictators." He argued that the reasoning given,
that the planned Orange meetings around the country to thank
voters for their support had the potential to become violent,
was simply wrong, highlighting the calm manner of Nairobi's
huge rally. Orange leaders declared the government,s ban
illegal and have indicated their intent to continue with the
planned rallies, currently scheduled to begin December 10.

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ODM In Need of Clear Leadership
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4. (U) Awori offered no details on acknowledged government
plans to consult with the ODM regarding a new constitution or
government. Despite their calls for reconciliation and
national healing, Orange leaders sent contradictory messages
about their willingness to cooperate with the President.
During the November 26 rally, former Roads Minister Raila
Odinga was adamant that they are ¬ interested in
negotiations8 but rather want fresh elections. At that same
rally, former Environment Minister Kalonzo Musyoka invited
the President to negotiate with them. Further complicating
the ODM,s ability to effectively negotiate with the
government is its apparent lack of a defined leadership
structure. While there are several outspoken leaders of the
ODM (mostly LDP and KANU party leaders),no unified
leadership structure has yet been developed. This may be due
in part to the challenge of binding together the unlikely
bedfellows who joined forces to defeat the proposed
constitution. However, such cohesion within the movement is
necessary as the ODM leaders insist the movement will only
re-enter government as a team, rather than on an individual
basis. Indeed, they signed an agreement to that effect.

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Elections, Power-sharing, and a New Constitution - Quickly
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5. (C) Former National Heritage Minister Najib Balala
confirmed this strategy November 25 to the DCM. Balala said

the ODM plans to demand a specific timetable for a new
constitution and snap elections. They want a commitment to
produce a new constitution within three months of the
reconvening of Parliament, (not expected now until March
2006). The ODM seeks fresh elections; however, if that is
not possible, they want a "proper government" formed in
consultation with the ODM. Balala agreed that reconciliation
is important but insisted that there will be no change in the
ODM,s position as they believe their stand was ratified by
the majority of Kenyan voters.


6. (C) COMMENT: President Kibaki may find any attempts to
reach out to and incorporate the ODM leaders into a new
Cabinet extremely difficult in the absence of a clear leader
of the ODM who can negotiate on behalf of the team. Kibaki
is expected to announce his new Cabinet presently. The
individuals selected to join his government will reveal much
about how Kibaki plans to chart the course ahead. The ODM's
agitation for snap elections will likely increase to a fever
pitch should the President exclude ODM leaders from Cabinet
positions and continue to resist calls to dissolve Parliament
to initiate fresh elections. The ban on ODM rallies is a
disturbing restriction on the freedom of association, betrays
a conflation of ruling party and national interests, and
risks further alienating the ODM and current fence-sitters
from the government.
BELLAMY