PRESIDENT KIBAKI SACKS CABINET, KEEPS PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004878

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2025
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT KIBAKI SACKS CABINET, KEEPS PARLIAMENT
OUT

REF: NAIROBI 4838

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1
.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: After conceding November 22 the defeat of
his proposed new constitution in the previous day's national
referendum, President Kibaki moved swiftly to assert his
leadership. He dismissed his entire (and entirely
disfunctional) cabinet November 23; seeking to ward off
preparations for a vote of no-confidence, he indefinitely
suspended November 24 the return of Parliament (planned for
next week). Echoing pre-referendum talk, opponents of the
draft called for immediate general elections, which remains
among Kibaki's own options. Alternatively, the president
could take steps to mend political divisions as he seeks to
create his new cabinet over the next two weeks. Assembling a
team to continue the constitutional review process will be
one, but not the only, issue to be hammered out. Kibaki is
at the crossroads of his tenure; he has to decide if he will:
seek new elections; or, try to go about business as usual;
or, govern for all Kenyans and rechart a course for the
national reform agenda for the remainder (two years?) of his
administration. END SUMMARY.

A GOVERNMENT OF TWO
--------------


2. (SBU) Barely 24 hours after conceding the defeat of the
draft constitution he had backed (reftel),President Kibaki
announced November 23 the dismissal of his entire cabinet.
In a terse televised statement, Kibaki said he took this
constitutionally-authorized step and will soon appoint new
Ministers and Assistant Ministers "to make (the government)
more cohesive and better able to serve the people of Kenya."
Leaving in place his Vice President, and the ministries'
Permanent Secretaries (senior-most career civil servants, who
insiders tell us are likely the next to go after new
ministers are named),the president added that he planned to
"reconstitute" his government within two weeks. Following
renewed calls by his "Orange" (anti-draft) critics for snap
elections, Kibaki backed up his dissolution of government by
suspending Parliament November 24. The National Assembly had
been set to return to session on November 29. The president,
constitutionally empowered to set the schedule for
parliament, did not give a timeframe for the legislature's
return, but after the planned two-week session, the next
assembly was not to be until February or March 2006. He may
constitutionally delay the sitting of parliament for as long
as one year since its last meeting.

SNAP TO IT?
--------------


3. (C) Kibaki's actions were quickly met by calls from
"Orange" leaders for immediate general elections, which had
also circulated prior to the November 21 referendum.
Speaking to diplomats on November 25, anti-draft constitution
former Planning Minister Professor Anyang Nyongo' cited new
elections as one of the President's options, but did not
offer his opinion on the wisdom of doing so.
Constitutionally, had the president dissolved, and not just
prorogued, parliament, general elections for Parliament (and
thus the President, as well) would be due within three
months.

KIBAKI'S OPTIONS
--------------


4. (C) The defeat of the draft constitution presents Kibaki
with both the greatest challenge and opportunity of his
presidency. Kibaki has three options for what he can do
next, for the constitution, and for government. He could, as
those opposed to him are calling for, announce general
elections now, well before the required late 2007 vote.
Alternatively, he could leave all MPs in place, and look to
build a new government, starting with a new cabinet and a
team to continue the constitutional reform process. With
respect to the cabinet, he could go one of two ways: either
reach out to the rebels in his (now-dissolved) cabinet and to
the formal opposition in a gesture of unification, or pack
his new cabinet with "Yes" (pro-draft constitution) men and
women. In doing the latter, Kibaki would be pursuing his
third option: to go about business as usual. Kibaki's
current predicament is an opportunity for him to demonstrate
real leadership by looking to mend political divisions,
reenergize the government's reform agenda (anti-corruption
agenda) and deliver a new constitution, as promised.


5. (C) Even if inclined to reach out, the President's
ability to do so is limited by how committed the "Orange"
leadership is to working with Kibaki. They clearly see himt
as weakened by the referendum defeat, and thus seek to press
their advantage. The Orange team itself has yet to
articulate its plan for next steps, beyond calls for fresh
elections. One Nyanza Province MP told Poloff November 23
that they were just getting together to discuss the way
forward. One key indicator will be the November 26 prayer
and thanks-giving rally planned for Nairobi, during which
"Orange" leaders are likely to address their willingness to
re-enter the government, their conditions for doing so and
their calls for new elections.


6. (SBU) Members of parliament who spoke to diplomats
November 25 espoused creating a government that brings
differing views together. Nobel Laureate and now-former
assistant minister Wangari Maathai (who had declared herself
neutral in the "Banana-Orange" debate) said that to rebuild
trust among political leaders, Kibaki needed to revisit the
2003 power-sharing memorandum of understanding that built the
NARC coalition. (The MOU was soon ignored, however, and the
coalition has riven by splits ever since.) Any new
government cannot be stable, she cautioned, without
addressing the issue of the memorandum. "Orange" leader
Professor Nyongo' further suggested Kibaki should look to
repair divisions by appealing to a "transitional government
of national unity." Nyeri MP Mutahi Kagwe noted that "sober
minds" ought to prevail in creating a unified government.
The MPs concurred that thus far the President's advisers had
misguided him.

COMMENT: PRESIDENT AT A CROSSROADS
--------------


7. (C) The referendum result and Kibaki's actions against
the cabinet and parliament present challenges to both the
president and the opposition "Orange" leaders. But the
greater onus remains on Kibaki. Kenyans are exhausted by the
just-concluded 3-month referendum campaign. The public is
not hankering just now for new elections. (Indeed, opposition
calls for new elections may simply be a pressure tactic.)
But Kenyans do want leadership and governance -- attributes
virtually non-existent for many months as the country's
political class has been consumed by the constitutional
debate. That debate will not fade entirely; Kenyans still
want a new constitution - just not the one they decisively
shot down this week. The President must now find a way to
return the Kenyan government to the business of governance.
Kibaki has bought himself time by postponing parliament and
forestalling a possible vote of no confidence. He now has
the opportunity to reassemble a majority coalition and show
himself to be a competent and flexible leader -- one who has
heard, and will now heed, the public's call. In the absence
of that, Kenyans may indeed welcome the prospect of going to
the polls again. But thus far, the vast majority of Kenyans
remain willing to give him another chance to succeed.
BELLAMY