REFERENDUM: LAST DAYS AND LAST DITCH EFFORTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004783

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PHUM KDEM KE
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM: LAST DAYS AND LAST DITCH EFFORTS

REF: NAIROBI 4143

Classified By: A/Political Counselor Lisa Peterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d
)


1. (C) Summary: In the waning days of the referendum
campaign ahead of the vote on November 21, the pro-draft
("Yes" or Banana) team has resorted to measures of
questionable democratic integrity to ensure a win, including
shutting down an opposition radio station and "suggesting"
that civil servants vote "Yes." Troubled by developments,
the Electoral Commission has expressed concerns over the
integrity of the process, while the political maneuvering and
campaigning continue unabated. The highly emotionally
charged nature of the constitutional review, and the lengths
to which the "Yes" team has gone to ensure a victory, suggest
that whatever the result, the vote will not be the end of the
process. END SUMMARY.

DESPERATE MEASURES?
--------------


2. (U) On November 16, Communication Commission of Kenya
(CCK) officials delivered a letter to KASS FM, a Kalenjin
vernacular radio station, citing complaints about the nature
of the station's broadcasts, and shut down the organization
for one week. KASS, as well as other media, immediately
cried fowl, complaining bitterly that the move was an
obviously political one to silence what is regarded as an
ORANGE ("No" campaign) radio station. Politicians from the
affected area joined the outcry, noting that their
constituents have few other sources for news and information
in their own language. The closure, which was front page
news the following day, sparked violence of its own. The
Daily Nation reported on November 17 that three people were
seriously injured as a result of a fight in which some
accused "Yes" supporters of instigating the station's shut
down. According to government spokesman Alfred Mutua, KASS
had called for violent agitation, a claim the CCK will
investigate.


3. (SBU) On November 17, the Kenya Times reported that head
of the civil service, Ambassador Francis Muthaura "ordered"
all civil servants to vote yes. Muthaura was quoted as
having said at a Public Service Commission event that the
proposed draft constitution would benefit civil servants and
therefore "there is no reason for them to remain neutral."
In October, some sectors of the civil service had been
promised pay raises in one of the first of the Banana
giveaways (reftel).

ELECTORAL COMMISSION UNCOMFORTABLE
--------------


4. (C) Samuel Kivuitu, Chairman of the Electoral Commission
of Kenya, the organization responsible for running the
referendum, shared with a diplomatic colleague some of his
serious concerns about the upcoming vote. Kivuitu expressed
skepticism about the Kenya Police Service, charged with
ensuring the referendum takes place peacefully. He
characterized the organization as biased and unprofessional
and lamented that there would be better security coverage in
"Yes" strongholds than in "No". Nonetheless, the Chairman
noted that he had requested the deployment of additional
police officers on polling day, but the government had not
responded to him. Kivuitu was generally worried about the
disparity between areas that were firmly Banana or ORANGE,
particularly that electoral officials in these highly
polarized areas were not neutral. Anticipating vote fraud,
he speculated that there would be many dead people voting.
He remarked that he expected a 60 percent voter turnout (as
opposed to 90 percent reflected in a recent opinion poll, the
results of which were not publicly released) which raised his
concern over excess ballot papers, as the ECK had ordered
based on 100 percent participation. Kivuitu stated that he
was worried about intimidation of ECK officials, and that he
had himself received a number of threats already.

UNTIL THE LAST MOMENT
--------------


5. (C) There has been no let up in the political maneuvering
in the last few days before the vote. Controversial Nairobi
Member of Parliament, David Mwenje, who had earlier defected
from the "Yes" side to the "No", and was later arrested for
disrupting a meeting held by his former team, announced on
November 16 that he had switched sides again. (NOTE: Mwenje
unashamedly confessed to Poloff in September that he had
accepted 100,000 shillings from the Banana team and then left
for ORANGE. Given Mwenje's history of opportunistically
changing sides, it is unclear whether his defection will
convince his constituents to alter their voting plans. END
NOTE.)


6. (C) While rumors had circulated that an ORANGE rally
scheduled for Nyayo Stadium had been canceled as it coincided
with another event at the same venue (and a Banana rally at a
nearby Nairobi location),the two end-of-campaign events will
be held, simultaneously and in close proximity to each other,
on Saturday, November 19. Police have said they will be
present in large numbers and are prepared to ensure the day
is peaceful. The following day, 7:00 A.M. marks the official
end of the campaign period: 24 hours before polls open.


7. (C) COMMENT: Having already demonstrated the lengths to
which it is willing to go to win approval for the draft
constitution, the "Yes" team, if it loses, seems unlikely to
graciously accept defeat and will use its considerable
resources to fend off suggestions that it has suffered a vote
of no confidence. The "No" team, if it is not successful,
will find plenty of fuel to argue against the credibility of
the vote. The ECK's private lack of confidence in the
polling procedure is worrisome and could portend a prolonged
and heated debate well after November 21. END COMMENT.

ROWE