Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NAIROBI4551
2005-11-01 14:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

FIRST DEATHS MAR RUN-UP TO KENYA'S REFERENDUM

Tags:  PGOV ASEC PREL KDEM PINS KE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004551 

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL KDEM PINS KE
SUBJECT: FIRST DEATHS MAR RUN-UP TO KENYA'S REFERENDUM


Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4
(b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004551

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC PREL KDEM PINS KE
SUBJECT: FIRST DEATHS MAR RUN-UP TO KENYA'S REFERENDUM


Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Violence erupted October 29 during a
pro-new constitution rally in Kisumu. Hundreds of angry
youth opposed to the proposed new constitution clashed with
thousands of security personal, culminating in 40 serious
injuries and four reported deaths. The violence was the most
deadly incident in referendum campaigns marked by escalating
polarization and violence. Both sides in the referendum
debate are accusing each other of working to undermine
democracy, alleging coup plats and intent to declare a state
of emergency, with significant consequences for the
successful conduct of the democratic exercise -- whatever the
outcome of the referendum. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Going Bananas
--------------


2. (U) Violence erupted in Kisumu October 29 during a
pro-new constitution ("Banana") rally lead by Information
Minister Raphael Tuju. Hundreds of angry youth opposed to
the proposed new constitution clashed with an estimated 3,000
security personal, culminating in 40 serious injuries and
four reported deaths. Kisumu, Kenya,s third-largest city,
is the capital of Nyanza province, predominantly ethnic Luo
in population, and home to an influential Asian business
community. It is also home to Minister Raila Odinga -- the
man double-crossed out of a Prime Minister-ship under the
current government and the leader of the "No" ("Orange")
campaign.


3. (C) The October 29 violence did not come as a surprise
to most observers. During an October 21-22 visit to Kisumu
and its environs, locals and community leaders described as
anti-Banana the political environment in the area; members of
the Kisumu business community expressed high levels of
anxiety about the potential for violence associated with the
constitutional referendum in the area. Senior District
Officer, Joseph K.W. Satia, told poloff that Nyanza province
was 80-20 opposed to the proposed new constitution and that
violence was possible. He also stated that support in the

area for Tuju (an ethnic Luo viewed by many fellow tribesmen
as having "betrayed" the community with support for the draft
constitution and his transparent efforts to dethrone Raila as
top Luo leader) was low and that those who have expressed
support for him have received rewards which Tuju has been
busy doling out across the province to garner support for the
Banana campaign and his newly formed People,s Progressive
Party. Many of our interlocutors confirmed this assessment,
describing the political environment in the area as being
hostile to the Banana campaign,s message as a result of the
Orange campaign,s early aggressive campaigning in the area,
lead by Raila Odinga. When questioned about a planned rally
to be lead by Tuju on October 22 which was unceremoniously
cancelled by Tuju, Provincial Police Commissioner, Bakari
Omari remarked that perhaps he was &too scared,8 reflecting
the commonly held belief that the area would not welcome Tuju
and his team of Banana campaigners.

--------------
An Escalating Trail of Violence
--------------


4. (U) Against this unfavorable background, Tuju vowed to
continue with the planned October 29th rally despite
harbingers of the violence to come. The Banana campaign
encountered hostile crowds throughout Nyanza and Western
province in the week leading up to the October 29th rally.
On October 25, Tuju had to abort a planned pro-Banana meeting
in Nyanza when his helicopter was prevented from landing at
the meeting site by a bone fire lit by opponents to the draft
constitution. On October 26, Tuju was forced to flee from
hostile youth near Kisumu who pelted him with stones and
oranges, a scene which was repeated a at number of his public
appearances in the area. In Kakamega town, Western province,
opponents to the proposed new constitution attacked
pro-Banana Member of Parliament Bonny Khalwale and set his
car ablaze on October 27.


5. (U) Reaction to the October 29th violence has been
critical of the government,s response, accusing the security
forces of using excessive force. Police reportedly fired
live ammunition to disperse the hostile crowds and leaders of
the Orange campaign have threatened to file a suit against
the government at the International Court of Justice. Tuju
claimed that the unrest was organized by two former military
officers. Orange campaign leader Uhuru Kenyatta accused the
government of intentional provocation, of instigating the
violence so as to create an excuse to postpone the referendum
planned for November 21. Despite claims of police brutality,
Police Commissioner Hussein Ali expressed his support of the
police response and stated that future unrest would be met
with equal force. The Luo Council of Elders, influential in
Nyanza province, denounced the violence and called for people
to reject violence and peacefully allow Banana campaigners to
have their say. Orange leaders have condemned the violence
on the part of the security forces, but have not been equally
outspoken in calling for a halt to violence in the actions of
their supporters. Banana supporters have been quick to
charge Orange campaigners of seeking to squelch democratic
debate and to establish a (pro-Raila) "dictatorship".

--------------
Rumors of Coups and Martial Law
--------------


6. (U) Meanwhile, leaders of the Orange team warned of an
increased likelihood of military coups in the future should
the proposed new constitution be adopted. Cabinet ministers
Ralia Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka claim that the difficulty to
amend the new constitution may make it more likely that
people find other means to redress perceived flaws in the
constitution, stating that the adoption of the proposed
constitution will &push Kenyans into a corner where they
have no alternative but to rise up against an undemocratic
constitutional order.8 (NOTE: The proposed new
constitution will arguably be more difficult to amend than
the current one. The 1 million signatures required to merely
propose an amendment is perceived by some of the smaller
tribes as a way for the dominant Kikuyu group to perpetuate
their hold on power, as the proposed new constitution is
perceived to benefit Kikuyus over other groups. END NOTE.)
Musyoka also threatened to stage a sit-in in Uhuru Park if
the referendum vote is perceived to have been rigged in favor
of a Yes outcome. He likened the action to the popular coup
of the &orange revolution8 in Ukraine last year.


7. (U) In response, the government has accused the Orange
leaders of sowing anarchy and planning a coup d,etat to
overthrow the government should the No,s lose the referendum
vote. Repeated dark references have been made to Raila
Odinga's "revolutionary" past, his university days in
then-East Germany and his role in the 1982 coup attempt
against Moi's one-party state. President Kibaki condemned the
Ministers, remarks as &foolish and stupid8 and accused
them of agitating people to overthrow the government. The
Orange team has denied any intention to plot a coup and
subsequently accused the government of planning to declare
martial law should the No,s win the referendum vote.


8. (C) COMMENT: The violence which has dogged both
campaigns is likely to continue to escalate as threats of
coups and martial law are mixed into the debate. Neither
side has sufficiently condemned violence by its supporters.
Should future unrest be met with renewed lethal force by
security personal, the potential for what until now have been
isolated scenes of violence to escalate to national-level
issues could increase dramatically. Statements such as
Kalonzo,s threat to occupy a downtown park if displeased
with the outcome of the voting underscore the importance of a
referendum process which is perceived by all sides to be free
and fair.
BELLAMY