KENYAN GOVERNMENT OFFERS CARROTS FOR BANANAS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 004143

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2025
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYAN GOVERNMENT OFFERS CARROTS FOR BANANAS

REF: NAIROBI 4128

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick. Reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Ahead of Kenya's November 21 constitutional
referendum, the Government has begun offering various
constituency groups a variety of enticements, implicitly to
win their "Yes" or banana, vote. The offers so far include a
number of controversial land ownership concessions, pay
increases for local officials, and development projects. The
deals have not necessarily achieved the desired effect, with
the Maasai notably not reversing their "no" stand despite
regaining control of Amboseli National Park. The patronage
offers have the "No" (or ORANGE) campaigners crying foul and
highlight the government's willingness to use any resources
at its disposal to pursue its pro-draft constitution agenda.
END SUMMARY.

"Referendum Giveaway"
--------------


2. (U) On September 29, the Kenyan Government announced its
plan to designate Amboseli National Park as a national
reserve, thus localizing its administration and directing the
sanctuary's revenues into the immediate (mostly Maasai)
community. (NOTE: Amboseli is one of Kenya's most revered
parks, where all of "the Big Five" game animals can be found
against the backdrop of Tanzania's Mt. Kilimanjaro.) The
announcement came days before the largest-ever Maasai
gathering at Narok (reftel),during which the Suswa
Declaration formalized the community's opposition to the
draft constitution. The Maasai are concerned that the
proposed constitution, if enacted, will place all national
parks and reserves in government hands, making the Amboseli
offer an empty one. An editorial in "The Nation" was sharply
critical of the GOK's Amboseli plan, calling it "a desperate
attempt to bribe the Maasai." The government, however, denies
it is anything of the sort.


3. (U) In another land offer, President Kibaki announced
October 3 that the thousands of (mostly Kalenjin or Kipsigis)
residents of the protected Mau Forest in Narok -- and who
were forcibly evicted in January -- would now be allowed to
return to their farms or otherwise be resettled on public
lands in the Forest. No timeframe, however, was specified for
implementation. Community leaders charged the govenrment was
attempting to "blackmail" voters with promises related to the
ever-sensitive land issues. Additionally, the government
abruptly revoked a regulation prohibiting landowners from
dividing their plots into parcels smaller than one hectare
(two and one half acres),an important concession to the
large number of Kenyans who distribute their land among sons.


Open Season on Government Generosity
--------------


4. (U) In what may be interpreted as an another attempt to
woo Maasai voters to the "Yes" side, the GOK released 13
herders who had been in custody for over a year for allegedly
demonstrating against settler ranches on Maasai land. More
transparently, on October 3, the government announced pay
raises for hundreds of local government officials. Minister
for Local Government Musikari Kombo reportedly claimed that
the salary increase was in the works before the referendum
process, but a representative of the officials was quoted as
having said that "we are still ORANGE (i.e., "No") supporters
until our demands are met."


5. (U) The government has also recently announced a number
of ambitious development plans, including a pledge of 880
million Kenyan shillings (approximately USD 12 billion) for
slum improvement (over the next 15 years). Additionally,
during his trip to Isiolo in late September, President Kibaki
offered the district six new schools, a livestock purchase
program, and renovation of the local airport.

Comment: More Than Free Fruit
--------------


6. (C) Despite the government's claim of merely coincidental
timing, its use of enticements to win "Yes" votes is rather
transparent. The Maasai, for example, have seen through this
political ploy. Moreover, the GOK has set an expensive, and
perhaps unsustainable, precedent that has signaled to some
observers its desperation to win approval for the Wako draft
constitution. While the use of official cars and helicopters
for campaigning is perhaps the most obvious exploitation of
public resources for referendum campaigning, it is perhaps
not the most significant. By doling out major financial
favors, the government is relying on its fiscal might to
bring in banana votes. One group that has yet to see any
benefit to opposing the draft is teachers. But with seven
weeks to go, there is still time.
BELLAMY