Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NAIROBI3988
2005-09-26 05:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

KENYA REFERENDUM: VIOLENCE, TRIBALISM, AND

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINS KDEM KE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003988 

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA REFERENDUM: VIOLENCE, TRIBALISM, AND
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT

REF: A. NAIROBI 3982


B. NAIROBI 3863

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1
.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003988

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA REFERENDUM: VIOLENCE, TRIBALISM, AND
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT

REF: A. NAIROBI 3982


B. NAIROBI 3863

Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1
.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A recent announcement that the Kenyan
government plans to throw all of its resources, financial and
human, towards a "Yes" vote threatens the very nature of a
free and fair referendum. Recent violence and esculating
tribalism surrounding the referendum campaigns further
threaten to undermine the democratic exercise. END SUMMARY.

--------------
Conflicting Loyalties
--------------


2. (SBU) Poloff attended a September 21 "No" rally held in
Thika, the economic capital of the Kikuyu heartland and home
to Uhuru Kenyatta, the KANU (opposition) party Chairman and
an ethnic Kikuyu. The rally posed a real test of loyalties
for Thika,s residents: support their home-grown leader and
oppose the draft constitution or support their elected (and
also Kikuyu) President and support a document widely held to
be written by and benefiting Kikuyus. Upon entering the town
of Thika, emboffs were greeted with pro-"Yes" graffiti on the
streets and surrounding buildings. Approaching the site of
the rally, the pro-"Yes" graffiti was re-painted to create
pro-"No" messages. The start of the rally was disrupted by
violent clashes when "Yes" supporters, some brandishing
machetes, attacked the "No" audience gathered at the rally.
Several people were injured before order was restored.
Poloff noticed a heavy police presence for the duration of
the rally. There were subsequently widespread complaints
that the police had only stood by when the "Yes" supporters
moved in to disrupt the rally.


3. (SBU) Despite the earlier fracas and lingering threat of
violence, those who remained to listen to the speakers did so
with an air of reservation. The crowd was less enthusiastic
than at previous "Yes" and "No" rallies, but listened
politely and occasionally responded when prompted by the
speakers. The most galvanizing moment of the rally came when
Raila Odinga, Minister for Roads and Public Works, took to
the podium to address the crowd and was able to whip them up

for a few pro-"No" cheers.


4. (SBU) Immediately following Raila came Thika,s own
prodigal son, Uhuru. Surprisingly, as Uhuru began to speak,
the vast majority of the crowd turned their backs on him and
headed for the exit. Uhuru cut his speech short and the
rally drew to an abrupt close. One spectator explained to
poloff that many of the people came to the rally curious to
see and hear the heavy-hitters in the speakers' line-up.
However, being familiar with Uhuru, they had no interest in
staying to hear what he had to say as they disagreed with his
"No" message. An alternative explanation for the mass
exodus, offered by a member of the "No" team, was that people
left the rally because they feared further violence. This
explanation leaves something to be desired, as SWAT teams
were present and poloff did not observe any suspicious
activity that might support such a claim. A great number of
rally attendees, however, had vacated after the initial
violence, and did not stay to hear any of the speakers.

--------------
Accusations of State Sponsored Violence
--------------


5. (SBU) During the rally, Joseph Komotho, LDP Sectary
General and a member of Parliament, accused Internal Security
Minister John Muchuki of supporting the pro-"Yes" hooligans
by providing drugs and money to the hirelings to disrupt the
"No" rally. The "No" team repeated the accusation (extending
it to other key allies of President Kibaki) following similar
skirmishes at the September 22 "No" rally in Garissa.
Further, the "No" group condemned the government for
&state-sponsored violence8 against them and accused the
police of bias in arresting 14 "No" supporters following the
fracas in Thika, while releasing all of the "Yes"
instigators.

-------------- --------------
Government Resources Lend Support to the "Yes" Campaign
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Both the "Yes" and "No" campaigns launched their
respective National Referendum Committees to manage their
referendum campaigns earlier in the week. Embassy staff
attended both office openings in Nairobi and noted a general
lack of organization and poor attendance at the "Yes"
headquarters. By contrast the "No" office opening was
extremely well planed and drew a greater crowd of "No"
supporters. The "No" camp also revealed the amount (Sh2.7
million) and source (members of Parliament,s contributions)
of their campaign war chest, which is a welcome development
given that the source of campaign funding has become a hot
topic for both sides.

7. (C) On September 21, the Kenya National Commission on
Human Rights, the Kenya Human Rights Commission, and the
Electoral Commission of Kenya admonished both sides for using
government resources for their campaigns and announced that
they would monitor the use public resources. However, just
two days later, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister
Kiraitu Murungi declared that the government was funding the
"Yes" campaign since the referendum was a government project.
Internal Security Minister John Michuki further stated that
the "No" team "can seek for funding from their foreign
masters.8 (NOTE: According to the Parliament,s Sergeant at
Arms, rumors that the U.S. Embassy is funding the "No"
campaign are circulating widely among Members of Parliament.
END NOTE.) Murungi also stated that all civil servants have
&a duty8 to campaign for a "Yes" vote, and that anyone who
obstructs civil servants performing this duty will be met by
the full force of law.

--------------
Deepening Divisions Between Ethnic Groups
--------------


8. (U) The three groups also announced that they would
monitor politicians, leaders, and radios stations for airing
hate speeches based on ethnicity, which have been airing on
several vernacular radio stations. Recent comments by
Michuki raise the disturbing specter of tribalism. He
remarked &you Kikuyus can sleep soundly at night and let
your hearts not be troubled because you have Kibaki, (and
others protecting you.8 Comments such as these serve not
only to unify Kikuyus behind the President but also may
deepen the Kikuyu sense of isolation as these comments
alienate other groups.


9. (SBU) COMMENT: Appeals to ethnicity and the reception
afforded the "No" team, and in particular Uhuru, in
Kikuyu-populated Thika reinforce the concern that ethnic
affiliation will play a critical role in the referendum vote.
Rising tribalism is even more disturbing when coupled with
the increasing incidents of violence. Use of government
resources to further the "Yes" campaign has the potential to
significantly disadvantage the "No" vote and threaten the
very nature of a free and fair referendum.
BELLAMY