HOW DO WE RUN THIS THING? COMMISSIONS WEIGH IN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003982

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KE
SUBJECT: HOW DO WE RUN THIS THING? COMMISSIONS WEIGH IN ON
REFERENDUM PROCESS

REF: A. (A) NAIROBI 3847

B. (B) NAIROBI 3779

Classified By: Deputy PolCouns L. Peterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A September 21 lunch with members of the
Electoral Commission of Kenya and the Constitution of Kenya
Review Commission revealed that both organizations are
unclear on the referendum process and their respective roles.
Exactly two months before the November 21 constitutional
referendum, there is debate within and between the two
commissions on what rules should apply to the vote, each
organization's responsibilities, and the civic education
program. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) An Embassy-hosted lunch brought together Electoral
Commission of Kenya (ECK) and Constitution of Kenya Review
Commission Chairperson (CKRC) officials for a discussion of
the administrative and legal framework associated with the
upcoming referendum. Included in the event were ECK Vice
Chairman Gabriel Mukele and Commissioners Wangui Karanja and
Henry Jura, as well as CKRC Chairperson Abida Ali Aroni,
First Vice Chairpersons Wanjiku Kabira and Ahmed Idha Salim,
and Vice Chairperson HWO Okoth-Ogendo.

IN THE GRAY
--------------


3. (C) Commission members debated whether election rules
should apply, such as those pertaining to party agents at
polling stations, and the use of public funds for
campaigning. The ECK said that they were treating the
current process like any other election, while the CKRC's
Okoth-Ogendo argued this was not a simple vote for candidates
and that people should be made to understand that the results
of this poll will not be undone in five years. ECK Vice
Chairman Mukele concluded that however "crudely" the draft
constitution and the referendum had been arrived at (due to
political and judicial ineptitude, others argued) the two
commissions were mandated with carrying out an act of
Parliament as best they could.


4. (C) Clearing the air on who does what, Okoth-Ogendo
explained the difference between voter and civic education:
the latter aims to explain the document to voters, while the
purpose of the former is to ensure citizens make their
intended choice when they vote. This raised the question:
which document should civic educators explain? The CKRC
stated that Kenyans are familiar with the 2004 Bomas-approved
draft after two years of debate surrounding the creation of
the document, and will look for a comparison. Therefore
civic educators will present the current draft, but be
prepared to answer questions on the existing constitution and
the Bomas draft. The Commissioners noted that they should
have earlier had a conversation on a joint ECK-CKRC effort,
since both groups had people out in the field.


5. (C) In response to Okoth-Ogendo's comment that the
Bomas-approved draft had "disappeared" from the CKRC website,
Henry Jura wondered how divided the CKRC was, alluding to
allegations that some CKRC members (such as Aroni, who was
not yet present) had been less than impartial (ref B).
Members on both sides agreed that even a whiff of bias in
civic education could be (or already was) the program's
demise. Aroni later admitted that within the organization
there were differing views, but publicly the Commission had
been able to speak with one voice.

CIVIC EDUCATION STILLBORN?
--------------


6. (C) The ECK asserted that the Civic Education process was
"tainted and broken," and therefore ineffective, leaving the
door open for politicians to argue for their own right to
campaign. In contrast to ECK Chairman Samuel Kivuitu's
strong statement against campaigning before October 21
because of the detrimental impact on civic education (ref A),
his deputy, Mukele, insisted that there was no prohibition
against campaigning. He added that the October date only
designated a "hot" period just prior to the vote. Members of
both commissions agreed that the education program could only
reach people who had not already made up their minds, and
that many voters had not, and would not, read the text of the
proposed draft.


7. (C) The question, "how does civic education work," did
not receive an answer but prompted a discussion of the ECK
and CKRC's respective roles. Aroni later updated on the
program's progress, explaining that it had "barely begun."
They had decided to use Community Based Organizations
(smaller and less formal than civil society organizations)
who were yet to be trained, but had programming on the radio
already and would begin "in earnest" in October. She did
admit, however, that the CKRC had "lost time."

TIME, VIOLENCE, AND THE DAY AFTER
--------------


8. (C) The group remained divided on whether the time
allocated for the referendum process was appropriate. Aroni
confessed that she was "tired" and argued for doing "the best
we can, why drag it out?" Jura, on the other hand,
reiterated that the outcome was too important to rush. The
members were reluctant to discuss the prospect for further
violence during the next two months: "I would rather not
predict," Mukele demurred. Looking ahead, the commissioners
agreed that a "No" vote would not result in crisis as the
existing constitution would still be in place, but
"agitation" was possible.

COMMENT: JUST BE CLEAR
--------------


9. (C) Nearly two weeks after the launch of the civic
education program there was still no answer to how it will be
carried out, illustrating the fog surrounding the
organizations who are supposed to be at the center of the
referendum process. The apparent lack of clarity on the
process is not entirely unexpected considering the referendum
is an unprecedented undertaking for Kenya. It is, however,
disconcerting in light of the potentially damaging
ramifications: violence (which sparked again later the same
afternoon, septel) and political turmoil. The best outcome
will be a decisive decision, either "Yes" or "No", that
leaves little room for further political, and physical,
wrangling. END COMMENT.
BELLAMY