Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NAIROBI3658
2005-09-07 09:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

SOMALIA -- INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PREPARES TO

Tags:  PGOV PREL KPAO SO KE 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 003658 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF
STATE PASS AID
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO SO KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA -- INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PREPARES TO
MEET "GOVERNMENT" IN JOWHAR

REF: A. NAIROBI 3434


B. NAIROBI 3117

Classified By: MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 003658

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF
STATE PASS AID
LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAO SO KE
SUBJECT: SOMALIA -- INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY PREPARES TO
MEET "GOVERNMENT" IN JOWHAR

REF: A. NAIROBI 3434


B. NAIROBI 3117

Classified By: MICHAEL J. FITZPATRICK, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi has formally
requested that the international community travel to Jowhar,
Somalia -- temporary seat of the Somali President's wing of
the Transitional Federal Government -- to convene a meeting
of the Somali Coordination and Monitoring Committee. In the
absence of significant and substantive progress in addressing
the political divisions now blocking the functioning of the
TFG, the international community's acceptance to participate
in such a meeting may irrevocably tilt the balance of
legitimacy in favor of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, and
away from the Mogadishu-based minister-warlords. Such a move
could prove to be the catalyst for open armed conflict among
the various factions of the TFIs -- and provide an
opportunity for Jihadists to capitalize on the chaos. END
SUMMARY.

PRIME MINISTER REQUESTS A CMC IN SOMALIA
--------------


2. (C) Members of the international community (IC) met on
September 2 for a weekly exchange of information with the UN
Special Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG),
Ambassador Francois Fall. Amb. Fall informed the group of a
letter from Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Prime
Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi (apparently received during the
PM's visit to Nairobi during the week of August 22),formally
requesting a convening of the Somalia Coordination and
Monitoring Committee (CMC). In the letter (reproduced in its
entirety, para 13),the PM proposed to convene the meeting in
Jowhar, Somalia -- the town currently used as a temporary
capital city by a TFG faction led by President Abdullahi
Yusuf Ahmed -- during the last week in September. The SRSG
asked IC members to consider the request, and proposed that
those particularly interested in the subject should meet in a
smaller informal group the week of September 5 to discuss
principles and, if deemed appropriate, preparations.


WHERE IS THE TFG?
--------------


3. (C) Somalia Watcher joined on September 6 representatives
of the Delegation of the European Commission, France, IGAD,
Italy, Sweden, and the UK to discuss the PM's request and
proposal. Somalia Watcher posited that the request for a CMC
meeting raised several difficult issues. First, while the
TFG's Prime Minister was the designated co-chair of the CMC
(along with the SRSG),the IC had operated on a presumption
that the PM would represent the Transitional Federal
Government on the consultative body. Unfortunately, the TFG
remained deeply divided, with the PM unable to hold a Council
of Ministers meeting with more than a handful of ministers.
Therefore, it could be seen as odd for the SRSG and the IC to
meet with a co-chair unable to represent the institutions
which created him.


4. (C) Second, Somalia Watcher pointed out that the United
Nations Security Council had made it clear that the
international community expected to see concerted efforts on
the part of the members of the TFIs to enter into a dialogue,
through the good offices of the SRSG, to resolve the
differences that divided the institutions. As there had not
yet been any dialogue among the TFI members on either side of
the divide, one could hardly state that any progress had been
made on this front.


5. (C) Last, Somalia Watcher opined that at this time, the IC
could not in fact find a grouping of TFI members anywhere in
Somalia that could be accurately viewed as representing the
TFG, and should therefore be very careful as to on whom the
IC conferred the title of "Somali government" -- the title
having not yet been given to that group which had coalesced
around the PM and President in Jowhar. However, should the
SRSG make significant progress in the coming days in
conducting the dialogue called for in the Security Council's
Presidential Statement, and TFI members from across the
political spectrum back the convening of the CMC, then there
would be grounds for a meeting to be held wherever the Somali
consensus indicated would be acceptable

THERE IS BUT ONE TFG,
AND IT IS IN JOWHAR
--------------

6. (C) The Counselor to the "Italian Diplomatic Special
Delegation for Somalia", Stefano A. Dejak, responded to these
cautions with a straightforward claim of fact: That the IC
had, by virtue of several meetings held in Jowhar of the
Joint Planning Committee (a subsidiary body of the CMC),
already made clear that it considered those in the "temporary
capital" to hold the authority of the TFG. Since, according
to Dejak, there was no question as to who embodied the TFG,
and where they were located, it remained only to set a date
for the CMC meeting, and determine the agenda.


7. (C) Representatives of the European Commission, Sweden,
and the UK were more nuanced, but nonetheless favored
proceeding with the planning of the CMC meeting. The EC
representative stressed that the subject of reconciliation
should in fact figure prominently on the CMC meeting agenda,
and that care should be taken to ensure that there would be a
TFG delegation representative of the various positions within
the institutions to allow for this discussion. The Swedish
representative cautioned that, while the IC's right to insist
on a voice in the composition of the TFG delegation might be
questioned, there should nonetheless be some consideration
given to the subject.


8. (C) The UK representative, speaking for the European Union
Presidency, stated that the EU could hardly not welcome the
PM's request, having called for the convening of a CMC
meeting for several months. That said, from the UK's
perspective, the question remained as to whether there is, or
is not, a government in Jowhar. He thought that the very
process of preparing for a CMC meeting might sort out this
question, if the IC were to take the line that the meeting
must be held with as broadly representative a group as
possible.

COMMENTS
--------------


9. (C) We see the momentum in the IC has taken the group past
the essential question of who constitutes the TFG, having
settled on the small group of ministers and MPs surrounding
the President and PM in Jowhar. Despite some caveats,
virtually all the substantively engaged members of the
international community have accepted the principles of (a) a
CMC meeting at the end of September, and (b) holding the
meeting with the Jowhar group. (NOTE: For their part, the
Mogadishu-based members of the TFI stick to their mantra that
they are in full compliance with the Charter, and await the
SRSG's direction as to when and where they should convene for
mediation with the Jowhar-based faction. END NOTE.)


10. (C) Given the security concerns that have surrounded any
discussion of USG personnel traveling anywhere in Somalia,
including the relatively peaceful break-away region of
Somaliland, Post believes it unlikely that we will be
prepared to directly participate in the Jowhar meeting. It
remains for the USG to decide what it may wish to say about
the convening of the CMC in the stronghold of one group of
TFI members, to the likely exclusion of the rest.


11. (C) Should there be a sudden burst of successful dialogue
facilitation on the part of the SRSG in the coming days, with
the full cooperation of the members of the various TFI
factions, one could imagine the USG warmly welcoming the CMC
meeting as an indication that Somalia has returned to the
right track. Were the PM to have sudden success in his own
reconciliation efforts -- he has stated to the EU Heads of
Mission that he intends to solve the differences within the
TFIs through dialogue at the leadership, cabinet, and
Parliament levels -- we could hardly withhold our diplomatic
support for the CMC to meet in the context of such a dialogue.


12. (C) These successful scenarios seem relatively unlikely,
given both the track record of the members of the divided
institutions -- both the Somalis and the IC -- and the fact
that key members of the TFIs will be traveling to New York
over the next two weeks in separate delegations for meetings
of the World Conference of Speakers of Parliaments and the UN
General Assembly. Perhaps the reconciliation, so sorely
needed, can occur on U.S. soil on the margins of these
international gatherings through the facilitation of the
SRSG. But should such a happy turn of events fail to
materialize, we will be faced with the prospect of the
international community, led by the SRSG, arriving in Jowhar
to meet with members on one side of the TFI's divisions, and
by presence alone conferring upon these individuals the
authority of the Government of Somalia. What effect such an
event would have on the Mogadishu-based minister-warlords, is
open to debate. A worst-case scenario, however, would have
them deciding that, with their political marginalization now
confirmed, there would be nothing to stop them from
protecting their economic interests through military means.
Or, President Yusuf could just as easily find himself
politically emboldened enough to seek a military solution in
Mogadishu (as he did previously in Puntland). Combat,
especially should it involve significant numbers of Ethiopian
forces in support of Yusuf, would provide a golden
opportunity to Jihadist elements in Somalia to rally forces
against both the foreign "invader" and the TFG -- which would
be easily portrayed as venal, secular, and dysfunctional. END
COMMENTS.


INVITATION LETTER
--------------


13. (SBU) The Prime Minsiter's formal request for the
convening of a meeting of the CMC follows:

(BEGIN TEXT:)

The Transitional Federal Government of the Republic of Somalia
Office of the Prime Minister
Ref: OPM/151/05
Nairobi, 22nd August 2005

H.E. Ambassador Francois Lonseny Fall
SRSG of the UN Secretary General, Co-Chair of the CMC
UN Political Office for Somalia
Nairobi - Kenya

Your Excellency,

With the present, I would like to bring to your attention
that it is quite sometime since the CMC monthly meetings were
not held due TFG's engagement in its relocation activities
and set up in the country. As you know, the Transitional
Federal Institutions have relocated to Somalia in mid-June
2005 and engaged with very limited financial and human
resources in the enormous challenges of bringing governance,
peace, reconciliation and reconstruction to our beloved
country after 14 years of ravages. Therefore, the delay of
convening such meetings reflects these limits and does not
affect the unfailing commitment on our part of bringing
forward the cooperation with the International Community we
subscribed to both in the Declaration of Principles and the
Structured Coordination Modalities.

In the light of the above, I believe it is now appropriate
and therefore suggest planning and fixing a date and agenda
for the forthcoming CMC meeting to be held in Howhar probably
the last week of September 2005 with the following tentative
draft agenda:

-- Briefing and political update after TFI's relocation to
Somalia
-- Modalities for better collaboration between the TFG and
International Community in the framework of CMC
-- Discussion and endorsement of JPC's Secretariat
-- Review of JNA exercise
-- CMC Secretariat
-- AOB

Regards,
//SIGNED//
Ali Mohamed Gedi
Prime Minister
CMC Co-Chair

(END TEXT.)
BELLAMY