Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05NAIROBI3593
2005-09-02 12:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Nairobi
Cable title:  

KENYA CONSTITUTION: BATTLE LINES DRAWN ON THE

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM KE 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003593 

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA CONSTITUTION: BATTLE LINES DRAWN ON THE

REFERENDUM

REF: (A) NAIROBI 3499 (B) NAIROBI 3487

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor L. Peterson for reasons 1.4 (
b,d)

SUMMARY
--------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003593

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA CONSTITUTION: BATTLE LINES DRAWN ON THE

REFERENDUM

REF: (A) NAIROBI 3499 (B) NAIROBI 3487

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor L. Peterson for reasons 1.4 (
b,d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (SBU) Battle lines are being drawn on the upcoming
referendum on the proposed new constitution. Former
President Moi has announced his opposition to the new draft.
Two Cabinet members, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, have
formally joined forces with the leader of the Official
Opposition Uhuru Kenyatta to conduct a nationwide campaign
for a vote against the draft. Three major religious bodies
have stated their neutrality on the draft, but some among
these have expressed reservations about portions of the
document and have advised that they will engage in civic
education on strengths and weaknesses of the draft. The "No"
campaign, with its vocal and early start, appears to have an
early advantage, but much can still change between now and
referendum day. END SUMMARY.

OVERT OPPOSITION
--------------

2. (U) During the week of August 29, a number of high
profile individuals and organizations announced their
positions on the new draft constitution. Former President
Moi stated he opposes the draft, claiming it promotes
tribalism, suspicion, and animosity, and forecasting that the
document "would tear this country apart" if adopted. The
Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) has also
announced it will advise its members to vote against the
draft, stating that it negated principles of democracy and
freedom and would erode current gains by the trade union
movement. Women,s groups have also expressed concern over
the draft. The Kenya Women,s Movement, comprising several
women,s organizations, recently announced that the draft
failed to sufficiently advance women,s rights.


3. (C) Cabinet Ministers Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka
(both of the Liberal Democratic Party) formally joined forces
with Kenya African National Union (KANU) leader Uhuru
Kenyatta August 31 to launch a nationwide campaign opposing
the new draft. The three leaders plan to conduct rallies in
18 towns countrywide. (COMMENT: The combination of these
three personalities is likely to provide real momentum to the

"No" campaign. Kenyatta will be able to draw in at least a
portion of the Kikuyu community, along with support from
KANU's significant support base in the Rift Valley. Musyoka
has repeatedly appeared in opinion polls as a strong
contender for the presidency and will be able to draw in at
least a portion of the Kamba community. Odinga is an
exceptional organizer within the Luo community and among his
Nairobi-area constituents; his strategy and leadership helped
seal the ruling coalition's victory in 2002. They are coming
to this battle, however, with a comparatively small war chest
of about $135,000 and risk being quickly outspent by the
"Yes" camp. END COMMENT.)

OFFICIAL NEUTRALITY - WITH SOME RESERVATIONS
--------------

4. (SBU) On three successive days, the Catholic Church,
Anglican Church, and National Council of Churches of Kenya
(NCCK) (representing mainstream Protestant churches),
publicly declined to side one way or the other on the draft,
in contrast to the public opposition voiced by 41 Protestant
and Evangelical churches on August 25 (ref B). Rather, these
religious bodies declared that it was up to each individual
to make up his or her own mind on the draft. The Catholics
leaned slightly toward the new draft, describing it as better
than either the current constitution or the Bomas draft. The
Anglicans advised they would be involved in civic education
activities in the run-up to the referendum to explain the
strengths and weaknesses of the new draft. The NCCK also
described the new draft as better than both the existing
constitution and the Bomas draft, but publicly expressed a
specific concern about the draft's rigid amendment
procedures. Each of these groups announced their neutral
stances following meetings with the man responsible for
formulating the new draft, Attorney General Amos Wako,
fueling speculation in local media that Wako influenced the
religious bodies to avoid further damaging the Government,s
"Yes" campaign.

POSSIBLE DIVISIONS WITHIN THE MUSLIM COMMUNITY
-------------- -

5. (U) The Supreme Council of Kenyan Muslims (SUPKEM)
secretary general has asked Muslims to read and interpret the

SIPDIS
draft carefully while awaiting direction from SUPKEM. The
secretary general of the Council of Imams and Preachers of

SIPDIS
Kenya advised that the organization would announce a position
after having studied and compared three different
constitutional drafts. In the meantime, the National Muslim
Council of Kenya has reiterated its opposition to the draft.

COMMENT
--------------

6. (SBU) Whether voicing opposition to the new draft or
simply declining to endorse it, religious leaders and civil
society groups may disadvantage the Government,s "Yes"
campaign. If the only support outside of Government lent to
the draft is to withhold judgment on it, the "Yes" campaign
seems to be starting at a disadvantage. While the "No" group
has been quick to launch its campaign, the Government has
been slow to mobilize supporters, and has put out confusing,
conflicting messages about what, exactly, is in the draft.
Members of Parliament who support the draft are to gather
September 2 to strategize the "Yes" campaign, but they now
appear rather slow coming out of the chute. For the moment,
the draft's opponents seem well-positioned to defeat the
draft. Many other developments, however, particularly the
"Yes" camp's potential war chest, could easily shift the
balance between now and November. END COMMENT.


BELLAMY